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Calgary Flames v Dallas Stars
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Calgary Flames (Local)
Prediction 45.42%2.20fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -1.09%
Kelly -2.03%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.15
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.16%45.44%45.74%46.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.922.102.102.1552.08%47.53%47.62%46.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Dallas Stars (Visit)
Prediction 54.58%1.83fair odd
EV -1.22%
Edge -0.673%
Kelly -1.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.81
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.25%54.56%54.26%55.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.751.741.8161.73%57.21%57.47%55.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Calgary Flames (Local): 45.42%; Dallas Stars (Visit): 54.58%. For Dallas Stars (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.83. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.81, with an expected value of -1.22%; they did not produce positive expected value.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-04 01:57 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 17:35 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 19:45 |
| Everygame🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 14:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.58%E -3.23%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-03 14:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.59%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.41%EV -5.58%E -3.23%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-03 14:50 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -6.68%E -3.90%K -9.40%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.34%E -1.09%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -7.22%E -4.25%K -10.32%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:55 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -2.79%E -1.30%K -2.45%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -5.58%E -3.23%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.06%EV -3.70%E -1.75%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 53.94%EV -1.22%E -0.673%K -1.50%G +0.000% | 2.4% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.36%EV -3.70%E -1.75%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 54.64%EV -3.95%E -2.24%K -5.19%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.22%EV -3.70%E -1.75%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.78%EV -4.49%E -2.57%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.94%EV -3.70%E -1.75%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.06%EV -5.58%E -3.23%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-04 01:59 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -1.76%E -0.980%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -1.76%E -0.980%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 3.2% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.31%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.69%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.58%E -3.23%K -7.65%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.13%E -3.56%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-03 19:45 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -4.61%E -2.20%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -6.13%E -3.56%K -8.51%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-03-03 19:45 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -6.88%E -3.36%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -1.76%E -0.980%K -2.20%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.88%E -3.36%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.88%E -3.36%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.34%EV -6.88%E -3.36%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.66%EV -3.40%E -1.92%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.88%E -3.36%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.49%E -2.57%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -6.88%E -3.36%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.49%E -2.57%K -5.99%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 01:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -6.88%E -3.36%K -6.55%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -5.04%E -2.90%K -6.81%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 02:04 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.92I 52.08%NM 45.76%EV -12.79%E -6.66%K -13.90%G +0.000% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 54.24%EV -11.59%E -7.15%K -18.69%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-03-04 01:58 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 46.02% | 1.85I 54.05%NM 53.98% | 0.1% | 2026-03-04 01:59 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09% | 0.3% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.61% | 1.82I 54.95%NM 54.39% | 1.0% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| Novig◎ | 2.21I 45.25%NM 44.75% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.25% | 1.1% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41% | 1.5% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41% | 1.5% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.59% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.41% | 1.5% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.45% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.55% | 1.9% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.57% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.4% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.57% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.4% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.57% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.4% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 33.57% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.95% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.48% | 3.4% | 2026-03-03 21:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.48% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.97% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.55% | 3.6% | 2026-03-04 01:59 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.76% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 41.93% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.31% | 4.6% | 2026-03-04 01:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.13% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.28% | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.59% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.10% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.06% | 4.18I 23.92%NM 22.84% | 4.7% | 2026-03-04 01:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.87% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29% | 5.5% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.87% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29% | 5.5% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.87% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29% | 5.5% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.84% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 43.87% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.29% | 5.5% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.61% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 43.98% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41% | 6.3% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.44% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.56% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.01% | 6.8% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.69% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.71% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60% | 7.9% | 2026-03-03 20:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.88% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.01% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11% | 8.2% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.57% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 41.64% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.79% | 9.2% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 35.25% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 41.72% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.03% | 9.9% | 2026-03-04 02:05 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.97% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.29% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.73% | 10.0% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.00% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 42.30% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.71% | 11.0% | 2026-03-04 02:03 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.56% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 41.79% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.65% | 11.3% | 2026-03-04 02:00 |