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Buffalo Sabres v Vegas Golden Knights
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Buffalo Sabres (Local)
Prediction 55.86%1.79fair odd
EV -1.69%
Edge -0.960%
Kelly -2.22%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.76
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%55.88%55.84%57.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.701.711.7663.69%58.66%58.48%56.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Vegas Golden Knights (Visit)
Prediction 44.14%2.27fair odd
EV -0.682%
Edge -0.303%
Kelly -0.546%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.31%44.12%44.16%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.172.2550.00%46.15%45.98%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 55.86%; Vegas Golden Knights (Visit): 44.14%. For Vegas Golden Knights (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.27. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.25, with an expected value of -0.682%; they did not produce positive expected value.
22 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.76I 56.82%NM 55.33%EV -1.69%E -0.960%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.67%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 2.7% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -2.25%E -1.28%K -3.00%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -9.51%E -4.64%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-03-04 00:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.84%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.16%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 2.9% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.38%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.62%EV -4.65%E -2.15%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -2.81%E -1.61%K -3.79%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -5.54%E -2.59%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-03 19:30 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.78%EV -3.92%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.22%EV -4.21%E -1.94%K -3.60%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.32%EV -3.92%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.68%EV -5.98%E -2.81%K -5.29%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 00:03 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.92%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.42%E -3.03%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.92%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.42%E -3.03%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%EV -3.92%E -2.28%K -5.45%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%EV -6.42%E -3.03%K -5.73%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 19:34 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 17:40 |
| Everygame🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-03-03 17:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -3.77%E -1.73%K -3.20%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-03-03 19:34 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -4.65%E -2.15%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.48%E -2.62%K -6.31%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.10%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-03-03 23:20 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -5.04%E -2.96%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -4.65%E -2.15%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.04%E -2.96%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.10%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 22:30 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.04%E -2.96%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.10%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:34 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.04%E -2.96%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.10%E -2.37%K -4.43%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.04%E -2.96%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.04%E -2.96%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.04%E -2.96%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.30%E -3.48%K -6.64%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-03-03 19:35 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -0.682%E -0.303%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-03-03 23:20 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -5.60%E -3.31%K -8.11%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -2.01%E -0.904%K -1.64%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-03-04 00:01 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -0.682%E -0.303%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.25%EV -6.16%E -3.67%K -9.06%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.75%EV -0.682%E -0.303%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.18%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.82%EV -1.56%E -0.702%K -1.27%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -6.72%E -4.02%K -10.02%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -2.89%E -1.31%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.83%E -4.75%K -12.05%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -0.682%E -0.303%K -0.546%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -12.30%E -7.84%K -21.58%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%EV -11.72%E -5.86%K -11.72%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-03-03 22:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 55.31% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.69% | -0.1% | 2026-03-03 23:59 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.36% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.64% | 0.9% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 55.00% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.00% | 1.0% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Novig◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.3% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.66% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.34% | 1.6% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.24% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.76% | 3.4% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (22)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.85% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33% | 2.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.85% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33% | 2.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.85% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33% | 2.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.82% | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.85% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.33% | 2.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.26% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.92% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.82% | 4.1% | 2026-03-04 00:04 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.85% | 2.84I 35.21%NM 33.66% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.49% | 4.6% | 2026-03-03 23:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.43% | 2.86I 34.97%NM 33.40% | 4.31I 23.20%NM 22.16% | 4.7% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.38% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.90% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.72% | 4.8% | 2026-03-03 23:32 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42% | 4.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42% | 4.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42% | 4.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.81% | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.76% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.42% | 4.9% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.06I 48.54%NM 45.69% | 2.95I 33.90%NM 31.90% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.41% | 6.3% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35% | 6.5% | 2026-03-03 23:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.68% | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.13% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.19% | 7.3% | 2026-03-03 23:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03% | 8.1% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Parions Sport (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.16% | 9.3% | 2026-03-03 23:55 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.57% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.27% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.16% | 9.3% | 2026-03-03 23:24 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.55% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.18% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.27% | 9.3% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 43.11% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.82% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.08% | 10.5% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.50% | 2.72I 36.76%NM 33.11% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 23.39% | 11.0% | 2026-03-04 00:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.71% | 2.50I 40.00%NM 34.97% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.32% | 14.4% | 2026-03-04 00:05 |