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Buffalo Sabres v Montréal Canadiens
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Buffalo Sabres (Local)
Prediction 56.17%1.78fair odd
EV -2.26%
Edge -1.30%
Kelly -3.05%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.74
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.09%56.17%56.04%58.82%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.571.701.711.7463.69%58.80%58.48%57.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Montréal Canadiens (Visit)
Prediction 43.83%2.28fair odd
EV +0.799%
Edge +0.347%
Kelly +0.615%
Growth +0.005%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.18%43.83%43.96%45.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.172.172.3050.00%46.05%46.08%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Buffalo Sabres (Local): 56.17%; Montréal Canadiens (Visit): 43.83%. For Montréal Canadiens (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.28. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.799%.
21 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (37 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 1.61I 62.11%NM 58.82%EV -9.56%E -5.94%K -15.67%G +0.000% | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.18%EV +0.799%E +0.347%K +0.615%G +0.005% | 5.6% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 57.00%EV -3.38%E -1.97%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.00%EV -0.078%E -0.034%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 2.0% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 57.04%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 42.96%EV -0.516%E -0.227%K -0.406%G +0.000% | 2.5% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.07%E -3.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.39%E -0.619%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV -1.83%E -0.817%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.71%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 43.29%EV -1.83%E -0.817%K -1.48%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.63%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.37%EV -2.71%E -1.22%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.78%EV -5.07%E -3.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.22%EV -2.71%E -1.22%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-06 21:03 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-05-06 21:55 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.07%E -3.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.58%E -1.63%K -2.99%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-06 22:50 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.90%EV -3.38%E -1.97%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.10%EV -4.46%E -2.05%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-06 22:55 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.46%E -2.05%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.46%E -2.05%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.04%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.96%EV -4.46%E -2.05%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 22:55 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -5.07%E -3.00%K -7.34%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -4.46%E -2.05%K -3.78%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 22:54 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -2.82%E -1.63%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -4.90%E -2.26%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.64%EV -2.82%E -1.63%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.36%EV -4.90%E -2.26%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.93%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 44.07%EV -4.90%E -2.26%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-06 22:45 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -5.34%E -2.47%K -4.60%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -3.94%E -2.31%K -5.55%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 22:55 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 22:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 22:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-06 19:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.63%E -3.35%K -8.28%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.77%E -2.69%K -5.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-06 22:55 |
| William Hill🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.82%E -1.63%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-06 12:04 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.97%E -3.79%K -7.24%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-06 22:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -2.26%E -1.30%K -3.05%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -10.16%E -4.95%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -4.50%E -2.65%K -6.43%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -10.16%E -4.95%K -9.67%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| NetBet (FR)🎯 | 1.57I 63.69%NM 56.02%EV -11.81%E -7.52%K -20.71%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 43.98%EV -12.35%E -6.17%K -12.35%G +0.000% | 13.7% | 2026-05-06 22:00 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (9)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOpenly◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.86% | 2.32I 43.10%NM 43.14% | -0.1% | 2026-05-06 22:55 |
| Novig◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 0.7% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78% | 1.1% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.22% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.78% | 1.1% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 22:45 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00% | 1.5% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.00% | 2.24I 44.64%NM 44.00% | 1.5% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92% | 2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08% | 2.2% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (21)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Option 3 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.42% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00% | 3.3% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.42% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00% | 3.3% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.42% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00% | 3.3% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.42% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.00% | 3.3% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.22I 45.05%NM 43.15% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.83% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 22.02% | 4.4% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.21I 45.25%NM 43.26% | 2.81I 35.59%NM 34.03% | 4.21I 23.75%NM 22.71% | 4.6% | 2026-05-06 22:35 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.43% | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.83% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.74% | 4.7% | 2026-05-06 22:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.33% | 2.89I 34.60%NM 32.98% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.69% | 4.9% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.60% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.40% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.60% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.40% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.60% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.40% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.60% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.40% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.00% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.98% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.02% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.99% | 5.7% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.82% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.26% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.91% | 6.1% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.71% | 2.85I 35.09%NM 32.94% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.35% | 6.5% | 2026-05-06 22:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.63% | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.50% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.88% | 6.6% | 2026-05-06 22:45 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.32% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.50% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.18% | 7.4% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.12I 47.17%NM 43.78% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.38% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.84% | 7.7% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03% | 8.1% | 2026-05-06 23:01 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.04% | 2.65I 37.74%NM 34.92% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.03% | 8.1% | 2026-05-06 23:05 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 43.82% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 34.38% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 21.80% | 11.9% | 2026-05-06 23:00 |