The School of Odds
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SaiPa v Tappara

Kickoff: 2026-09-01 15:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

SaiPa (Local)

Prediction 33.28%3.00fair odd
EV +1.51%
Edge +0.495%
Kelly +0.736%
Growth +0.011%

assuming max odds 3.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.78%33.13%33.31%34.84%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.832.803.0540.00%35.29%35.71%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Tappara (Visit)

Prediction 43.48%2.30fair odd
EV -3.47%
Edge -1.56%
Kelly -2.84%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.22

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.24%43.58%43.62%44.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.122.122.2250.00%47.13%47.17%45.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.23%4.30fair odd
EV -2.42%
Edge -0.576%
Kelly -0.755%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.40%23.29%23.07%24.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.733.974.004.2026.81%25.17%25.00%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: SaiPa (Local): 33.28%; Tappara (Visit): 43.48%; Draw: 23.23%. For SaiPa (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.00. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.51%.

20 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitDrawMarginUpdated
Coolbet🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.88%EV +1.51%E +0.495%K +0.736%G +0.011%2.22I 45.05%NM 43.80%EV -3.47%E -1.56%K -2.84%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.31%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%2.8%2026-09-01 11:30
LeoVegas (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%EV +1.51%E +0.495%K +0.736%G +0.011%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%EV -5.20%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 13:00
ATG (SE)🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%EV +1.51%E +0.495%K +0.736%G +0.011%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%EV -5.20%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 13:00
Svenska Spel🎯3.05I 32.79%NM 31.82%EV +1.51%E +0.495%K +0.736%G +0.011%2.18I 45.87%NM 44.51%EV -5.20%E -2.39%K -4.41%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.67%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-01 13:00
Grosvenor🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -1.82%E -0.617%K -0.933%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.34%EV -7.81%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.23%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 13:00
Unibet (NL)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -1.82%E -0.617%K -0.933%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.34%EV -7.81%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.23%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 13:00
Casumo🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -1.82%E -0.617%K -0.933%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.34%EV -7.81%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.23%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 13:00
Unibet (SE)🎯2.95I 33.90%NM 31.86%EV -1.82%E -0.617%K -0.933%G +0.000%2.12I 47.17%NM 44.34%EV -7.81%E -3.69%K -6.98%G +0.000%3.95I 25.32%NM 23.80%EV -8.23%E -2.08%K -2.79%G +0.000%6.4%2026-09-01 12:59
Unibet (UK)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 33.83%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.06%EV -4.33%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.11%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%5.6%2026-09-01 09:04
Tipico (DE)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 32.80%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 44.80%EV -10.86%E -5.30%K -10.34%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.40%EV -4.74%E -1.16%K -1.53%G +0.000%8.9%2026-09-01 11:34
PMU (FR)🎯2.80I 35.71%NM 31.78%EV -6.81%E -2.43%K -3.78%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.49%EV -13.03%E -6.52%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.73%EV -12.87%E -3.43%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.4%2026-09-01 13:00
Betway🎯2.75I 36.36%NM 33.37%EV -8.48%E -3.08%K -4.84%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 43.69%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.94%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%9.0%2026-09-01 07:25
1xBet🎯2.70I 37.04%NM 34.84%EV -10.14%E -3.76%K -5.96%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 42.76%EV -4.33%E -1.97%K -3.61%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.40%EV -2.42%E -0.576%K -0.755%G +0.000%6.3%2026-09-01 15:20
Betclic (FR)🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 33.76%EV -12.80%E -4.89%K -7.90%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 42.53%EV -9.55%E -4.59%K -8.85%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 23.71%EV -13.34%E -3.58%K -4.89%G +0.000%13.1%2026-09-01 15:15
Winamax (DE)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.62%EV -13.47%E -5.18%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.87%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.51%EV -7.06%E -1.77%K -2.35%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-01 09:04
Unibet (FR)🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 34.11%EV -13.47%E -5.18%K -8.42%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.24%EV -8.68%E -4.13%K -7.89%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 23.65%EV -12.87%E -3.43%K -4.68%G +0.000%12.7%2026-09-01 15:19
Winamax (FR)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 34.39%EV -16.80%E -6.72%K -11.20%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 42.99%EV -13.03%E -6.52%K -13.03%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 22.62%EV -11.71%E -3.08%K -4.18%G +0.000%16.3%2026-09-01 09:04
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (20)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%1.4%2026-09-01 15:20
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.14I 46.73%NM 46.10%1.83I 54.64%NM 53.90%1.4%2026-09-01 15:25
NordicBet🎯2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%4.0%2026-09-01 15:20
theScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%4.1%2026-09-01 09:05
DraftKings🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%4.6%2026-09-01 09:02
Pinnacle🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 45.71%1.76I 56.82%NM 54.29%4.7%2026-09-01 15:15
BetRivers🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-09-01 12:55
betPARX🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-09-01 12:55
Bally Bet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 43.30%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.70%5.0%2026-09-01 12:55
Smarkets◎2.12I 47.17%NM 44.79%1.72I 58.14%NM 55.21%5.3%2026-09-01 15:25
888sport (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-30 15:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-30 15:35
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%5.3%2026-08-30 20:25
Betsson🎯2.18I 45.87%NM 43.52%1.68I 59.52%NM 56.48%5.4%2026-09-01 15:20
Hard Rock Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.88%1.71I 58.48%NM 55.12%6.1%2026-09-01 07:30
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%7.5%2026-08-27 16:15
Coral🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-08-30 17:25
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-08-30 17:30
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-08-30 17:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%7.6%2026-08-30 17:30