Language:English
Kärpät v Ässät
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Kärpät (Local)
Prediction 52.69%1.90fair odd
EV -5.15%
Edge -2.86%
Kelly -6.44%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
51.33%52.97%52.53%55.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.651.741.741.8060.61%57.40%57.47%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Ässät (Visit)
Prediction 24.98%4.00fair odd
EV +7.39%
Edge +1.72%
Kelly +2.24%
Growth +0.166%
assuming max odds 4.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.55%24.69%25.22%26.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.723.774.3030.30%26.86%26.49%23.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 22.33%4.48fair odd
EV +0.490%
Edge +0.109%
Kelly +0.140%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 4.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
21.22%22.34%22.25%22.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.854.244.334.5025.97%23.60%23.12%22.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Kärpät (Local): 52.69%; Ässät (Visit): 24.98%; Draw: 22.33%. For Ässät (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.00. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.39%.
19 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (18 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.41%EV -7.79%E -4.45%K -10.38%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 22.55%EV +7.39%E +1.72%K +2.24%G +0.166% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 22.04%EV -1.74%E -0.396%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-09-01 07:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.03%EV -5.68%E -3.17%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.48%EV -1.35%E -0.341%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.49%EV +0.490%E +0.109%K +0.140%G +0.001% | 3.4% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.03%EV -5.68%E -3.17%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.48%EV -1.35%E -0.341%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.49%EV +0.490%E +0.109%K +0.140%G +0.001% | 3.4% | 2026-09-01 14:19 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.03%EV -5.68%E -3.17%K -7.19%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 24.48%EV -1.35%E -0.341%K -0.457%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.49%EV +0.490%E +0.109%K +0.140%G +0.001% | 3.4% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -8.31%E -4.78%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -1.74%E -0.396%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -8.31%E -4.78%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -1.74%E -0.396%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -8.31%E -4.78%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -1.74%E -0.396%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 53.96%EV -8.31%E -4.78%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.71%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.34%EV -1.74%E -0.396%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 53.99%EV -10.42%E -6.13%K -14.89%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 24.15%EV -5.09%E -1.34%K -1.82%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.85%EV -6.21%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-09-01 13:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.53%EV -5.15%E -2.86%K -6.44%G +0.000% | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.22%EV -6.34%E -1.69%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 22.25%EV -5.09%E -1.20%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 13:55 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.14%EV -6.73%E -3.80%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.69I 27.10%NM 25.49%EV -7.84%E -2.13%K -2.92%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.38%EV -1.74%E -0.396%K -0.513%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 15:20 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 52.27%EV -8.84%E -5.11%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.12%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.61%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.6% | 2026-09-01 13:55 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.65I 60.61%NM 54.02%EV -13.06%E -7.91%K -20.09%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.76%EV -10.09%E -2.80%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.22%EV -6.21%E -1.48%K -1.94%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.77I 56.50%NM 51.33%EV -6.73%E -3.80%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.96%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.71%EV -10.68%E -2.67%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-09-01 14:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 52.04%EV -8.31%E -4.78%K -11.23%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.87%EV -12.59%E -3.60%K -5.03%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.09%EV -8.44%E -2.06%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-09-01 13:55 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.57%EV -9.37%E -5.45%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.47I 28.82%NM 25.56%EV -13.34%E -3.84%K -5.40%G +0.000% | 3.88I 25.77%NM 22.86%EV -13.36%E -3.44%K -4.64%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-09-01 15:05 |
| Unibet (FR)🎯 | 1.72I 58.14%NM 51.41%EV -9.37%E -5.45%K -13.01%G +0.000% | 3.45I 28.99%NM 25.63%EV -13.84%E -4.01%K -5.65%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.97%EV -14.03%E -3.64%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 13.1% | 2026-09-01 15:19 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 51.55%EV -11.47%E -6.83%K -16.87%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.24%EV -17.58%E -5.33%K -7.64%G +0.000% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 22.21%EV -12.91%E -3.31%K -4.45%G +0.000% | 15.5% | 2026-09-01 13:55 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (19)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.50I 66.67%NM 64.29% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.71% | 3.7% | 2026-09-01 13:00 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.52% | 2.71I 36.90%NM 35.48% | 4.0% | 2026-09-01 15:15 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.54I 64.94%NM 62.25% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 37.75% | 4.3% | 2026-09-01 15:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.59% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.41% | 4.6% | 2026-09-01 15:15 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.16% | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.84% | 5.1% | 2026-09-01 15:15 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 14:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 10:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 10:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63% | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 10:29 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 15:15 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 15:20 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73% | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 14:00 |
| Smarkets◎ | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.66% | 2.54I 39.37%NM 36.34% | 8.3% | 2026-09-01 15:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15% | 8.5% | 2026-09-01 07:35 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15% | 8.5% | 2026-09-01 07:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15% | 8.5% | 2026-09-01 07:35 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85% | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15% | 8.5% | 2026-09-01 07:35 |