The School of Odds
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HIFK v HPK

Kickoff: 2026-09-04 16:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

17 sportsbooks (5 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HIFK (Local)

Prediction 48.92%2.04fair odd
EV -3.63%
Edge -1.84%
Kelly -3.74%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.97

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.15%49.06%49.00%50.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.781.881.871.9756.18%53.17%53.48%50.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HPK (Visit)

Prediction 27.58%3.63fair odd
EV +0.665%
Edge +0.182%
Kelly +0.251%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 3.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.56%27.49%27.75%28.73%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.003.423.403.6533.33%29.22%29.41%27.40%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 23.50%4.25fair odd
EV -1.29%
Edge -0.307%
Kelly -0.403%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 4.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.42%23.45%23.25%24.23%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.734.034.104.2026.81%24.81%24.39%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HIFK (Local): 48.92%; HPK (Visit): 27.58%; Draw: 23.50%. For HPK (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.63. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.665%.

18 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (17 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼DrawMarginUpdated
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -5.59%E -2.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV +0.665%E +0.182%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Svenska Spel🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -5.59%E -2.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV +0.665%E +0.182%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 14:29
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -5.59%E -2.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV +0.665%E +0.182%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%3.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Coolbet🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 49.21%EV -3.63%E -1.84%K -3.74%G +0.000%3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV +0.665%E +0.182%K +0.251%G +0.002%4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%3.2%2026-09-04 10:39
Casumo🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Grosvenor🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Unibet (SE)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Unibet (NL)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%6.0%2026-09-04 14:29
Unibet (UK)🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.93%EV -5.10%E -2.63%K -5.42%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%5.3%2026-09-04 11:08
Tipico (DE)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -10.48%E -5.73%K -12.63%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.4%2026-09-04 11:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 50.16%EV -12.93%E -7.26%K -16.57%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -9.52%E -2.47%K -3.34%G +0.000%12.0%2026-09-04 14:30
1xBet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 49.30%EV -6.57%E -3.44%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.33I 30.03%NM 28.28%EV -8.16%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%6.2%2026-09-04 14:29
Betway🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.57%E -3.44%K -7.22%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%7.7%2026-09-04 11:10
Betclic (FR)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 48.15%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%3.73I 26.81%NM 24.14%EV -12.34%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%11.1%2026-09-04 11:28
Unibet (FR)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -9.50%E -5.14%K -11.18%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.75%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%11.6%2026-09-04 13:34
Winamax (DE)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 48.65%EV -9.01%E -4.85%K -10.48%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -13.13%E -4.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%10.5%2026-09-04 11:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.78I 56.18%NM 48.36%EV -12.93%E -7.26%K -16.57%G +0.000%3.00I 33.33%NM 28.69%EV -17.26%E -5.75%K -8.63%G +0.000%3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95%EV -11.87%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%16.2%2026-09-04 11:10
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (18)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
theScore Bet🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%3.7%2026-09-04 11:00
NordicBet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%4.1%2026-09-04 14:29
DraftKings🎯1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%4.2%2026-09-04 10:55
Pinnacle🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%5.3%2026-09-04 14:30
Betsson🎯1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%5.3%2026-09-04 14:29
BetRivers🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-09-04 14:29
Bally Bet🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-09-04 14:29
betPARX🎯1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%5.4%2026-09-04 14:29
888sport🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-09-04 10:49
888sport (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-09-04 10:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%5.7%2026-09-04 10:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%5.8%2026-09-04 11:09
Paddy Power🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%7.4%2026-09-04 11:00
Coral🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-09-02 06:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-09-02 06:30
Neds🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-09-02 06:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%7.5%2026-09-02 06:35
Smarkets◎1.52I 65.79%NM 60.62%2.34I 42.74%NM 39.38%8.5%2026-09-04 11:10