默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

HIFK v HPK

开赛时间： 2026-09-04 16:30 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

17 家博彩公司 (5 家纳入分析 )

49%

28%

24%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

HIFK (主队)

预测 48.92%2.04公平赔率

EV -3.63%

优势 -1.84%

Kelly -3.74%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.97

博彩公司预测分布

48.15%49.06%49.00%50.43%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.781.881.871.9756.18%53.17%53.48%50.76%最小值均值中位数最大值

HPK (客队)

预测 27.58%3.63公平赔率

EV +0.665%

优势 +0.182%

Kelly +0.251%

增长率 +0.002%

假设最高赔率为 3.65

博彩公司预测分布

26.56%27.49%27.75%28.73%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

3.003.423.403.6533.33%29.22%29.41%27.40%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 23.50%4.25公平赔率

EV -1.29%

优势 -0.307%

Kelly -0.403%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 4.20

博彩公司预测分布

22.42%23.45%23.25%24.23%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

3.734.034.104.2026.81%24.81%24.39%23.81%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：HIFK (主队)：48.92%；HPK (客队)：27.58%；平局：23.50%。对于“HPK (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为3.63。当时有4家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为3.65，对应+0.665%的正期望值。

有 18 家博彩公司为该盘口提供了不同数量的选项（2 个赛果，而分析采用 3 个赛果）。由于这一差异，应谨慎看待分析结果。

博彩公司赔率 (17 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队	客队 ▼	平局	利润率	更新时间
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -5.59%E -2.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV +0.665%E +0.182%K +0.251%G +0.002%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-09-04 14:29
Svenska Spel🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -5.59%E -2.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV +0.665%E +0.182%K +0.251%G +0.002%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-09-04 14:29
ATG (SE)🎯	1.93I 51.81%NM 50.29%EV -5.59%E -2.90%K -6.01%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.59%EV +0.665%E +0.182%K +0.251%G +0.002%	4.20I 23.81%NM 23.11%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%	3.0%	2026-09-04 14:29
Coolbet🎯	1.97I 50.76%NM 49.21%EV -3.63%E -1.84%K -3.74%G +0.000%	3.65I 27.40%NM 26.56%EV +0.665%E +0.182%K +0.251%G +0.002%	4.00I 25.00%NM 24.23%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%	3.2%	2026-09-04 10:39
Casumo🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-04 14:29
Grosvenor🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-04 14:29
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-04 14:29
Unibet (NL)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 50.43%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%	3.55I 28.17%NM 26.57%EV -2.09%E -0.590%K -0.821%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.00%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-09-04 14:29
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.94I 51.55%NM 48.93%EV -5.10%E -2.63%K -5.42%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.92%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 23.15%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-09-04 11:08
Tipico (DE)🎯	1.83I 54.64%NM 50.39%EV -10.48%E -5.73%K -12.63%G +0.000%	3.40I 29.41%NM 27.12%EV -6.23%E -1.83%K -2.60%G +0.000%	4.10I 24.39%NM 22.49%EV -3.64%E -0.888%K -1.17%G +0.000%	8.4%	2026-09-04 11:15
PMU (FR)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 50.16%EV -12.93%E -7.26%K -16.57%G +0.000%	3.35I 29.85%NM 26.65%EV -7.61%E -2.27%K -3.24%G +0.000%	3.85I 25.97%NM 23.19%EV -9.52%E -2.47%K -3.34%G +0.000%	12.0%	2026-09-04 14:30
1xBet🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 49.30%EV -6.57%E -3.44%K -7.22%G +0.000%	3.33I 30.03%NM 28.28%EV -8.16%E -2.45%K -3.50%G +0.000%	4.20I 23.81%NM 22.42%EV -1.29%E -0.307%K -0.403%G +0.000%	6.2%	2026-09-04 14:29
Betway🎯	1.91I 52.36%NM 48.63%EV -6.57%E -3.44%K -7.22%G +0.000%	3.30I 30.30%NM 28.15%EV -8.99%E -2.72%K -3.91%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 23.22%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%	7.7%	2026-09-04 11:10
Betclic (FR)🎯	1.87I 53.48%NM 48.15%EV -8.52%E -4.56%K -9.80%G +0.000%	3.25I 30.77%NM 27.71%EV -10.37%E -3.19%K -4.61%G +0.000%	3.73I 26.81%NM 24.14%EV -12.34%E -3.31%K -4.52%G +0.000%	11.1%	2026-09-04 11:28
Unibet (FR)🎯	1.85I 54.05%NM 48.43%EV -9.50%E -5.14%K -11.18%G +0.000%	3.20I 31.25%NM 28.00%EV -11.75%E -3.67%K -5.34%G +0.000%	3.80I 26.32%NM 23.58%EV -10.69%E -2.81%K -3.82%G +0.000%	11.6%	2026-09-04 13:34
Winamax (DE)🎯	1.86I 53.76%NM 48.65%EV -9.01%E -4.85%K -10.48%G +0.000%	3.15I 31.75%NM 28.73%EV -13.13%E -4.17%K -6.10%G +0.000%	4.00I 25.00%NM 22.62%EV -5.99%E -1.50%K -2.00%G +0.000%	10.5%	2026-09-04 11:10
Winamax (FR)🎯	1.78I 56.18%NM 48.36%EV -12.93%E -7.26%K -16.57%G +0.000%	3.00I 33.33%NM 28.69%EV -17.26%E -5.75%K -8.63%G +0.000%	3.75I 26.67%NM 22.95%EV -11.87%E -3.16%K -4.31%G +0.000%	16.2%	2026-09-04 11:10

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

其他博彩公司 — 未纳入分析 (18)

这些博彩公司为该盘口提供的选项数量不同，因而未纳入分析。其赔率仅供参考——相关投注的结算规则可能不同，并带来额外的不确定性。

博彩公司	选项 1	选项 2	利润率 ▲	更新时间
theScore Bet🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.64%	2.45I 40.82%NM 39.36%	3.7%	2026-09-04 11:00
NordicBet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 61.58%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.42%	4.1%	2026-09-04 14:29
DraftKings🎯	1.59I 62.89%NM 60.35%	2.42I 41.32%NM 39.65%	4.2%	2026-09-04 10:55
Pinnacle🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.90%	2.43I 41.15%NM 39.10%	5.3%	2026-09-04 14:30
Betsson🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.69%	2.48I 40.32%NM 38.31%	5.3%	2026-09-04 14:29
BetRivers🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%	5.4%	2026-09-04 14:29
Bally Bet🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%	5.4%	2026-09-04 14:29
betPARX🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 62.81%	2.55I 39.22%NM 37.19%	5.4%	2026-09-04 14:29
888sport🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-09-04 10:49
888sport (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-09-04 10:50
Mr Green (SE)🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%	5.7%	2026-09-04 10:50
Hard Rock Bet🎯	1.56I 64.10%NM 60.61%	2.40I 41.67%NM 39.39%	5.8%	2026-09-04 11:09
Paddy Power🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%	7.4%	2026-09-04 11:00
Coral🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%	7.5%	2026-09-02 06:30
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%	7.5%	2026-09-02 06:30
Neds🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%	7.5%	2026-09-02 06:35
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%	2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%	7.5%	2026-09-02 06:35
Smarkets◎	1.52I 65.79%NM 60.62%	2.34I 42.74%NM 39.38%	8.5%	2026-09-04 11:10