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THW Kiel v SC DHfK Leipzig
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
THW Kiel (Local)
Prediction 85.33%1.17fair odd
EV -6.13%
Edge -5.57%
Kelly -61.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
82.29%85.39%85.42%88.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.071.071.1095.24%93.84%93.46%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
SC DHfK Leipzig (Visit)
Prediction 9.07%11.03fair odd
EV +17.87%
Edge +1.37%
Kelly +1.49%
Growth +0.266%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.07%8.96%9.14%10.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
8.0010.5110.5013.0012.50%9.51%9.52%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 5.60%17.86fair odd
EV +6.38%
Edge +0.336%
Kelly +0.354%
Growth +0.023%
assuming max odds 19.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
4.75%5.65%5.44%6.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
12.5016.6718.0019.008.00%6.00%5.56%5.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: THW Kiel (Local): 85.33%; SC DHfK Leipzig (Visit): 9.07%; Draw: 5.60%. For SC DHfK Leipzig (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.03. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 13.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +17.87%.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 87.42%EV -9.55%E -9.01%K -159.09%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.13%EV +17.87%E +1.37%K +1.49%G +0.266% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.45%EV -4.82%E -0.284%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.03%EV -10.40%E -9.90%K -207.98%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV +17.87%E +1.37%K +1.49%G +0.266% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.86%EV +6.38%E +0.336%K +0.354%G +0.023% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 88.03%EV -10.40%E -9.90%K -207.98%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.11%EV +17.87%E +1.37%K +1.49%G +0.266% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.86%EV +6.38%E +0.336%K +0.354%G +0.023% | 8.2% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 87.52%EV -10.40%E -9.90%K -207.98%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.07%EV +17.87%E +1.37%K +1.49%G +0.266% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.41%EV -4.82%E -0.284%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-04-23 12:35 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.77%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV +4.27%E +0.371%K +0.407%G +0.017% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.16%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 12:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.19%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -0.264%E -0.024%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -4.82%E -0.284%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-23 17:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.19%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -0.264%E -0.024%K -0.026%G +0.000% | 17.00I 5.88%NM 5.42%EV -4.82%E -0.284%K -0.301%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-04-24 03:49 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 17:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 17:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 17:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 18:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 18:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 18:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 18:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-20 18:04 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 86.11%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.77%EV -4.80%E -0.457%K -0.505%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.12%EV +0.776%E +0.043%K +0.046%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-21 00:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.19%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -9.33%E -0.933%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -10.42%E -0.651%K -0.695%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 85.19%EV -8.69%E -8.12%K -124.17%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.12%EV -9.33%E -0.933%K -1.04%G +0.000% | 16.00I 6.25%NM 5.70%EV -10.42%E -0.651%K -0.695%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-04-23 12:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -9.55%E -9.01%K -159.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -13.86%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -27.22%E -2.09%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-23 17:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -9.55%E -9.01%K -159.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -13.86%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -27.22%E -2.09%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-23 17:04 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 83.81%EV -9.55%E -9.01%K -159.09%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.35%EV -13.86%E -1.46%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.83%EV -27.22%E -2.09%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-04-23 17:05 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 85.16%EV -9.55%E -9.01%K -159.09%G +0.000% | 8.95I 11.17%NM 10.09%EV -18.85%E -2.11%K -2.37%G +0.000% | 19.00I 5.26%NM 4.75%EV +6.38%E +0.336%K +0.354%G +0.023% | 10.8% | 2026-04-23 12:28 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 83.63%EV -6.13%E -5.57%K -61.32%G +0.000% | 8.90I 11.24%NM 10.34%EV -19.30%E -2.17%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 15.25I 6.56%NM 6.03%EV -14.62%E -0.959%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 12:30 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 82.90%EV -9.55%E -9.01%K -159.09%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.34%EV -22.93%E -2.70%K -3.06%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.76%EV -27.22%E -2.09%K -2.27%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-20 18:05 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 82.29%EV -10.40%E -9.90%K -207.98%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 10.80%EV -27.46%E -3.43%K -3.92%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 6.91%EV -30.02%E -2.40%K -2.61%G +0.000% | 15.7% | 2026-04-23 12:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.05I 95.24%NM 82.50% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 10.56% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 6.93% | 15.4% | 2026-04-23 17:05 |