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TBV Lemgo v Frisch Auf Göppingen
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
TBV Lemgo (Local)
Prediction 80.64%1.24fair odd
EV -5.66%
Edge -4.83%
Kelly -33.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.37%80.50%80.66%84.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.081.141.131.1792.59%87.94%88.50%85.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit)
Prediction 12.38%8.08fair odd
EV +23.75%
Edge +2.38%
Kelly +2.64%
Growth +0.627%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.15%12.45%12.30%14.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.357.396.9710.0015.75%13.52%14.34%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 6.99%14.31fair odd
EV +4.83%
Edge +0.322%
Kelly +0.345%
Growth +0.017%
assuming max odds 15.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
6.10%7.04%7.04%8.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
11.0012.8412.5015.009.09%7.79%8.00%6.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: TBV Lemgo (Local): 80.64%; Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit): 12.38%; Draw: 6.99%. For Frisch Auf Göppingen (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.08. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 10.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +23.75%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coral🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -12.91%E -11.96%K -161.42%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV +23.75%E +2.38%K +2.64%G +0.627% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +4.83%E +0.322%K +0.345%G +0.017% | 9.3% | 2026-03-15 06:15 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 84.75%EV -12.91%E -11.96%K -161.42%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.15%EV +23.75%E +2.38%K +2.64%G +0.627% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.10%EV +4.83%E +0.322%K +0.345%G +0.017% | 9.3% | 2026-03-15 06:15 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 82.37%EV -11.30%E -10.27%K -113.01%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.66%EV +5.19%E +0.611%K +0.692%G +0.036% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.97%EV -9.14%E -0.703%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 10.4% | 2026-03-15 05:30 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 82.69%EV -10.49%E -9.45%K -95.40%G +0.000% | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.19%EV +1.48%E +0.180%K +0.205%G +0.003% | 15.00I 6.67%NM 6.12%EV +4.83%E +0.322%K +0.345%G +0.017% | 9.0% | 2026-03-15 13:55 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.84%EV -8.88%E -7.86%K -68.32%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -0.997%E -0.125%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV -2.15%E -0.154%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-15 05:24 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.13I 88.50%NM 81.84%EV -8.88%E -7.86%K -68.32%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.56%EV -0.997%E -0.125%K -0.142%G +0.000% | 14.00I 7.14%NM 6.61%EV -2.15%E -0.154%K -0.166%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-03-15 05:25 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 80.99%EV -8.08%E -7.08%K -57.68%G +0.000% | 7.75I 12.90%NM 11.91%EV -4.09%E -0.528%K -0.606%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.10%EV -9.14%E -0.703%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 12:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.07%EV -9.69%E -8.65%K -80.73%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 11.95%EV -5.95%E -0.782%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -9.14%E -0.703%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-15 05:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.07%EV -9.69%E -8.65%K -80.73%G +0.000% | 7.60I 13.16%NM 11.95%EV -5.95%E -0.782%K -0.901%G +0.000% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 6.98%EV -9.14%E -0.703%K -0.762%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-03-15 05:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.25%EV -9.69%E -8.65%K -80.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.68%EV -13.37%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.07%EV -23.12%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-15 06:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.25%EV -9.69%E -8.65%K -80.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.68%EV -13.37%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.07%EV -23.12%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-15 06:25 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 79.25%EV -9.69%E -8.65%K -80.73%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.68%EV -13.37%E -1.91%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.07%EV -23.12%E -2.10%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-03-15 06:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 80.52%EV -10.49%E -9.45%K -95.40%G +0.000% | 6.95I 14.39%NM 12.86%EV -13.99%E -2.01%K -2.35%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.62%EV -5.65%E -0.418%K -0.452%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-03-15 13:48 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 07:59 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 07:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.93%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.68%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 12.50I 8.00%NM 7.39%EV -12.64%E -1.01%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.11I 90.09%NM 79.30%EV -10.49%E -9.45%K -95.40%G +0.000% | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.04%EV -16.47%E -2.44%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.65%EV -19.63%E -1.71%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 13.6% | 2026-03-15 05:25 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.37%EV -5.66%E -4.83%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 6.35I 15.75%NM 14.44%EV -21.42%E -3.37%K -4.00%G +0.000% | 12.75I 7.84%NM 7.19%EV -10.89%E -0.854%K -0.927%G +0.000% | 9.1% | 2026-03-15 12:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.10I 90.91%NM 78.95% | 6.60I 15.15%NM 13.16% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 7.89% | 15.2% | 2026-03-15 05:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 31.96% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 34.02% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 34.02% | 169.7% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 31.96% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 34.02% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 34.02% | 169.7% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 31.96% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 34.02% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 34.02% | 169.7% | 2026-03-15 08:00 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 83.33% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 16.67% | 7.1% | 2026-03-15 13:50 |