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MT Melsungen v ThSV Eisenach
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
MT Melsungen (Local)
Prediction 70.18%1.42fair odd
EV -7.37%
Edge -5.58%
Kelly -23.02%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.32
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.54%70.20%70.15%71.72%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.261.301.301.3279.37%76.76%76.92%75.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
ThSV Eisenach (Visit)
Prediction 20.85%4.80fair odd
EV -1.99%
Edge -0.423%
Kelly -0.538%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 4.70
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.53%20.83%20.83%21.86%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.954.394.504.7025.32%22.78%22.22%21.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.97%11.15fair odd
EV -1.34%
Edge -0.122%
Kelly -0.134%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.36%8.97%9.02%9.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.009.8910.0011.0011.11%10.11%10.00%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: MT Melsungen (Local): 70.18%; ThSV Eisenach (Visit): 20.85%; Draw: 8.97%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 11.15. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 11.00, with an expected value of -1.34%; they did not produce positive expected value.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:54 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.16%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.58%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.26%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-09 07:53 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.47%EV -7.37%E -5.58%K -23.02%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 21.58%EV -11.37%E -2.68%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.95%EV -8.07%E -0.787%K -0.872%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-09 06:14 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 70.91%EV -8.07%E -6.16%K -26.02%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.64%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.44%EV -1.34%E -0.122%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-08 13:19 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.07%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.23%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.53%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -1.34%E -0.122%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-09 06:04 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.74%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.23%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -8.25%E -1.87%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -1.34%E -0.122%K -0.134%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-08 18:14 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.82%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -10.33%E -2.40%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-08 13:19 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.82%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.23%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.11%EV -10.33%E -2.40%K -3.13%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-08 13:19 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.78%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -12.42%E -2.96%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -19.28%E -2.14%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-08 23:04 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.78%EV -8.77%E -6.75%K -29.23%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.29%EV -12.42%E -2.96%K -3.88%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.93%EV -19.28%E -2.14%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.8% | 2026-05-08 23:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 70.64%EV -9.47%E -7.34%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.25%EV -6.16%E -1.37%K -1.76%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.11%EV -10.31%E -1.03%K -1.15%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-05-08 13:19 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.38%EV -9.47%E -7.34%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.67%EV -9.71%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -19.28%E -2.14%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 06:14 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.38%EV -9.47%E -7.34%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.67%EV -9.71%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -19.28%E -2.14%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 05:59 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.38%EV -9.47%E -7.34%K -32.66%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.67%EV -9.71%E -2.24%K -2.91%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.95%EV -19.28%E -2.14%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 11.7% | 2026-05-09 06:14 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 71.72%EV -10.17%E -7.95%K -36.33%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.53%EV -1.99%E -0.423%K -0.538%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.74%EV -5.83%E -0.555%K -0.613%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-05-08 13:19 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.24%EV -10.17%E -7.95%K -36.33%G +0.000% | 4.08I 24.51%NM 21.72%EV -14.92%E -3.66%K -4.84%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.04%EV -12.10%E -1.24%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 12.8% | 2026-05-09 17:48 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 69.97%EV -11.58%E -9.19%K -44.52%G +0.000% | 4.25I 23.53%NM 20.75%EV -11.37%E -2.68%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.28%EV -14.79%E -1.56%K -1.74%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-09 07:55 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.26I 79.37%NM 68.54%EV -11.58%E -9.19%K -44.52%G +0.000% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 21.86%EV -17.63%E -4.46%K -5.98%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.60%EV -19.28%E -2.14%K -2.41%G +0.000% | 15.8% | 2026-05-08 13:19 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.26I 79.37%NM 68.82% | 3.95I 25.32%NM 21.95% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.23% | 15.3% | 2026-05-08 13:19 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.48% | 4.57I 21.88%NM 20.52% | 6.6% | 2026-05-08 07:25 |