The School of Odds
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HSV Hamburg v MT Melsungen

Kickoff: 2026-02-22 14:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

24 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSV Hamburg (Local)

Prediction 41.85%2.39fair odd
EV -3.74%
Edge -1.63%
Kelly -2.88%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.30

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
39.91%41.78%41.66%43.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.092.152.122.3047.85%46.54%47.17%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MT Melsungen (Visit)

Prediction 46.35%2.16fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -1.96%
Kelly -3.79%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.07

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.68%46.44%46.54%48.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.841.992.002.0754.35%50.20%50.00%48.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.80%8.48fair odd
EV +1.45%
Edge +0.169%
Kelly +0.191%
Growth +0.003%

assuming max odds 8.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.66%11.78%11.80%12.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.007.927.908.6014.29%12.62%12.66%11.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSV Hamburg (Local): 41.85%; MT Melsungen (Visit): 46.35%; Draw: 11.80%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.48. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.45%.

Sportsbook Odds (24 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.13I 46.95%NM 43.04%EV -10.86%E -5.10%K -9.61%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 46.30%EV -8.22%E -4.15%K -8.39%G +0.000%8.60I 11.63%NM 10.66%EV +1.45%E +0.169%K +0.191%G +0.003%9.1%2026-02-21 19:10
Unibet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:15
LiveScore Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:20
Casumo🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:20
Grosvenor🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:20
Virgin Bet🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:19
Unibet (NL)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:20
LeoVegas🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:15
ATG (SE)🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:20
Svenska Spel🎯2.12I 47.17%NM 43.98%EV -11.27%E -5.32%K -10.07%G +0.000%2.07I 48.31%NM 45.05%EV -4.05%E -1.96%K -3.79%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.97%EV +0.272%E +0.032%K +0.036%G +0.000%7.2%2026-02-22 09:15
Unibet (UK)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.36%EV -5.83%E -2.59%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 47.00%EV -8.22%E -4.15%K -8.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.63%EV -5.63%E -0.703%K -0.804%G +0.000%7.4%2026-02-22 14:19
Winamax (DE)🎯2.25I 44.44%NM 41.17%EV -5.83%E -2.59%K -4.67%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.26%EV -9.15%E -4.67%K -9.53%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.58%EV -5.63%E -0.703%K -0.804%G +0.000%8.0%2026-02-22 14:20
Tipico (DE)🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 39.91%EV -3.74%E -1.63%K -2.88%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 48.32%EV -11.93%E -6.28%K -13.26%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.77%EV -7.99%E -1.02%K -1.17%G +0.000%8.9%2026-02-22 14:20
NordicBet🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.29%EV -7.93%E -3.60%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.07%EV -10.54%E -5.46%K -11.33%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.65%EV -7.99%E -1.02%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-22 14:20
Betsson🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 41.29%EV -7.93%E -3.60%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 47.07%EV -10.54%E -5.46%K -11.33%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.65%EV -7.99%E -1.02%K -1.17%G +0.000%10.1%2026-02-22 14:20
Coolbet🎯2.17I 46.08%NM 42.76%EV -9.18%E -4.23%K -7.85%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.26%EV -4.98%E -2.43%K -4.74%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.97%EV -8.58%E -1.11%K -1.27%G +0.000%7.8%2026-02-22 14:19
Paddy Power🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 40.90%EV -7.93%E -3.60%K -6.61%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 47.11%EV -11.47%E -6.00%K -12.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.00%EV -11.52%E -1.54%K -1.77%G +0.000%11.1%2026-02-22 14:14
Coral🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.45%EV -10.02%E -4.66%K -8.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.66%EV -11.47%E -6.00%K -12.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -11.52%E -1.54%K -1.77%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-22 14:15
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 41.45%EV -10.02%E -4.66%K -8.71%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 46.66%EV -11.47%E -6.00%K -12.60%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -11.52%E -1.54%K -1.77%G +0.000%12.2%2026-02-22 14:15
Winamax (FR)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 41.55%EV -12.11%E -5.77%K -11.01%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 46.41%EV -12.86%E -6.84%K -14.61%G +0.000%7.25I 13.79%NM 12.04%EV -14.47%E -2.00%K -2.32%G +0.000%14.6%2026-02-22 14:19
Betclic (FR)🎯2.09I 47.85%NM 41.22%EV -12.53%E -6.00%K -11.50%G +0.000%1.84I 54.35%NM 46.82%EV -14.71%E -8.00%K -17.52%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 11.96%EV -15.06%E -2.09%K -2.43%G +0.000%16.1%2026-02-22 14:20
888sport🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -12.11%E -5.77%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.30%E -3.65%K -7.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -17.42%E -2.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-21 23:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -12.11%E -5.77%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.30%E -3.65%K -7.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -17.42%E -2.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-21 23:15
888sport (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -12.11%E -5.77%K -11.01%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -7.30%E -3.65%K -7.30%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -17.42%E -2.49%K -2.90%G +0.000%11.9%2026-02-21 23:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎2.10I 47.62%NM 41.21%1.85I 54.05%NM 46.77%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.02%15.6%2026-02-22 14:20
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 22.16%2.06I 48.54%NM 25.61%1.01I 99.01%NM 52.23%89.6%2026-02-22 14:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 22.16%2.06I 48.54%NM 25.61%1.01I 99.01%NM 52.23%89.6%2026-02-22 14:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.38I 42.02%NM 22.16%2.06I 48.54%NM 25.61%1.01I 99.01%NM 52.23%89.6%2026-02-22 14:25