The School of Odds
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HSV Hamburg v HSG Wetzlar

Kickoff: 2026-06-04 17:00 UTC

Final: HSV Hamburg 33–32 HSG Wetzlar

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HSV Hamburg (Local)

Prediction 50.57%1.98fair odd
EV -7.46%
Edge -4.07%
Kelly -8.98%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.61%50.88%50.59%52.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.781.771.8359.52%56.22%56.50%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSG Wetzlar (Visit)

Prediction 37.94%2.64fair odd
EV -3.26%
Edge -1.28%
Kelly -2.10%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.70%37.70%37.90%39.53%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.452.452.5544.44%40.80%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 11.49%8.70fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.129%
Kelly +0.145%
Growth +0.002%

assuming max odds 8.80

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.43%11.42%11.51%12.12%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.307.868.008.8013.70%12.73%12.50%11.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HSV Hamburg (Local): 50.57%; HSG Wetzlar (Visit): 37.94%; Draw: 11.49%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.70. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.13%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 50.69%EV -8.47%E -4.68%K -10.45%G +0.000%2.36I 42.37%NM 38.88%EV -10.47%E -4.44%K -7.70%G +0.000%8.80I 11.36%NM 10.43%EV +1.13%E +0.129%K +0.145%G +0.002%9.0%2026-06-04 13:40
Tipico (DE)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.47%EV -11.50%E -6.57%K -15.34%G +0.000%2.50I 40.00%NM 36.73%EV -5.16%E -2.06%K -3.44%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.80%EV -2.31%E -0.272%K -0.309%G +0.000%8.9%2026-06-04 13:30
Coolbet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 50.79%EV -7.46%E -4.07%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.94%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.25I 12.12%NM 11.27%EV -5.19%E -0.629%K -0.716%G +0.000%7.6%2026-06-04 16:16
Casumo🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
Virgin Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
Grosvenor🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
LiveScore Bet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
LeoVegas🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
Unibet (NL)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
Svenska Spel🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
ATG (SE)🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
Unibet🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 52.21%EV -10.49%E -5.93%K -13.62%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 36.24%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-04 10:10
Winamax (DE)🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 50.75%EV -7.96%E -4.37%K -9.71%G +0.000%2.45I 40.82%NM 37.70%EV -7.05%E -2.88%K -4.86%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.55%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%8.3%2026-06-04 13:40
Unibet (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.63%EV -8.97%E -4.99%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.97%EV -8.95%E -3.73%K -6.39%G +0.000%8.00I 12.50%NM 11.39%EV -8.06%E -1.01%K -1.15%G +0.000%9.7%2026-06-04 13:39
Betsson🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.63%EV -12.51%E -7.23%K -17.14%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.70%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.67%EV -10.36%E -1.33%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-04 14:19
NordicBet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 52.63%EV -12.51%E -7.23%K -17.14%G +0.000%2.55I 39.22%NM 35.70%EV -3.26%E -1.28%K -2.10%G +0.000%7.80I 12.82%NM 11.67%EV -10.36%E -1.33%K -1.52%G +0.000%9.8%2026-06-04 14:18
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.25%EV -8.97%E -4.99%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.40I 41.67%NM 37.69%EV -8.95%E -3.73%K -6.39%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.06%EV -13.81%E -1.84%K -2.12%G +0.000%10.6%2026-06-04 13:39
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.97%E -4.99%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.89%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -13.81%E -1.84%K -2.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-04 14:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.97%E -4.99%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.89%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -13.81%E -1.84%K -2.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-04 14:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.09%EV -8.97%E -4.99%K -11.22%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 37.89%EV -9.71%E -4.08%K -7.04%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -13.81%E -1.84%K -2.12%G +0.000%10.9%2026-06-04 14:19
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -7.46%E -4.07%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.53%EV -14.64%E -6.51%K -11.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -13.81%E -1.84%K -2.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-04 13:29
Coral🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 48.61%EV -7.46%E -4.07%K -8.98%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 39.53%EV -14.64%E -6.51%K -11.71%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.86%EV -13.81%E -1.84%K -2.12%G +0.000%12.4%2026-06-04 13:30
PMU (FR)🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 52.21%EV -15.04%E -8.95%K -22.12%G +0.000%2.43I 41.15%NM 36.10%EV -7.81%E -3.22%K -5.46%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.69%EV -13.81%E -1.84%K -2.12%G +0.000%14.0%2026-06-04 10:10
Winamax (FR)🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 50.29%EV -12.01%E -6.90%K -16.23%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.04%EV -12.74%E -5.54%K -9.80%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.67%EV -13.81%E -1.84%K -2.12%G +0.000%14.3%2026-06-04 13:39
Betclic (FR)🎯1.79I 55.87%NM 49.42%EV -9.48%E -5.30%K -12.00%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 38.46%EV -12.74%E -5.54%K -9.80%G +0.000%7.30I 13.70%NM 12.12%EV -16.11%E -2.21%K -2.56%G +0.000%13.0%2026-06-04 16:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.72I 58.14%NM 50.33%2.30I 43.48%NM 37.64%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.02%15.5%2026-06-04 13:40

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
Pinnacle🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.73%2.14I 46.73%NM 44.27%5.6%2026-06-04 16:30