The School of Odds
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HC Erlangen v HSV Hamburg

Kickoff: 2026-04-25 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

25 sportsbooks (7 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

HC Erlangen (Local)

Prediction 45.41%2.20fair odd
EV -6.92%
Edge -3.37%
Kelly -6.59%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
44.49%45.36%45.51%46.27%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.902.012.002.0552.63%49.84%50.00%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

HSV Hamburg (Visit)

Prediction 42.47%2.35fair odd
EV -4.44%
Edge -1.98%
Kelly -3.56%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.25

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
40.92%42.45%42.35%44.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.112.092.2550.00%47.42%47.85%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 12.12%8.25fair odd
EV +5.48%
Edge +0.630%
Kelly +0.711%
Growth +0.039%

assuming max odds 8.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.54%12.19%12.14%14.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.787.508.7015.38%12.86%13.33%11.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HC Erlangen (Local): 45.41%; HSV Hamburg (Visit): 42.47%; Draw: 12.12%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.25. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.48%.

Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
Marathon Bet🎯2.01I 49.75%NM 45.60%EV -8.73%E -4.34%K -8.65%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 43.86%EV -11.24%E -5.38%K -10.31%G +0.000%8.70I 11.49%NM 10.54%EV +5.48%E +0.630%K +0.711%G +0.039%9.1%2026-04-23 20:24
LiveScore Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-20 17:35
Casumo🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-20 17:34
Grosvenor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-20 17:35
LeoVegas🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-20 18:00
Virgin Bet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-20 18:05
Unibet (NL)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-20 18:05
Unibet🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-20 18:05
ATG (SE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-20 18:04
Svenska Spel🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 44.26%EV -11.66%E -5.61%K -10.80%G +0.000%8.50I 11.76%NM 10.83%EV +3.05%E +0.359%K +0.407%G +0.012%8.6%2026-04-21 00:05
Coolbet🎯2.03I 49.26%NM 45.51%EV -7.82%E -3.85%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 42.57%EV -7.84%E -3.61%K -6.70%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.92%EV -6.04%E -0.779%K -0.895%G +0.000%8.2%2026-04-24 03:29
Winamax (DE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.14%EV -9.19%E -4.59%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 41.95%EV -6.57%E -2.99%K -5.47%G +0.000%7.75I 12.90%NM 11.91%EV -6.04%E -0.779%K -0.895%G +0.000%8.4%2026-04-23 12:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.52%EV -9.19%E -4.59%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.34%EV -8.69%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.14%EV -9.07%E -1.21%K -1.40%G +0.000%9.8%2026-04-23 12:29
888sport🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.06%EV -9.19%E -4.59%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.92%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -9.07%E -1.21%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 18:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.06%EV -9.19%E -4.59%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.92%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -9.07%E -1.21%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 18:14
888sport (SE)🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 45.06%EV -9.19%E -4.59%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.92%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.02%EV -9.07%E -1.21%K -1.40%G +0.000%11.0%2026-04-23 18:15
PMU (FR)🎯1.97I 50.76%NM 44.49%EV -10.55%E -5.35%K -10.87%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 43.82%EV -15.06%E -7.53%K -15.06%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 11.69%EV -9.07%E -1.21%K -1.40%G +0.000%14.1%2026-04-20 18:05
Betsson🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.57%EV -9.64%E -4.84%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -8.69%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -10.28%E -1.39%K -1.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 12:29
NordicBet🎯1.99I 50.25%NM 45.57%EV -9.64%E -4.84%K -9.74%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 42.18%EV -8.69%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.25%EV -10.28%E -1.39%K -1.61%G +0.000%10.3%2026-04-23 12:29
Betclic (FR)🎯1.95I 51.28%NM 45.38%EV -11.46%E -5.88%K -12.06%G +0.000%2.09I 47.85%NM 42.34%EV -11.24%E -5.38%K -10.31%G +0.000%7.20I 13.89%NM 12.29%EV -12.71%E -1.77%K -2.05%G +0.000%13.0%2026-04-23 12:28
Paddy Power🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 44.68%EV -9.19%E -4.59%K -9.19%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 42.55%EV -10.81%E -5.15%K -9.83%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.77%EV -15.13%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%11.9%2026-04-23 12:29
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.27%EV -13.27%E -6.95%K -14.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -8.69%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -15.13%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 12:24
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 46.27%EV -13.27%E -6.95%K -14.59%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 41.10%EV -8.69%E -4.04%K -7.56%G +0.000%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.63%EV -15.13%E -2.16%K -2.52%G +0.000%13.2%2026-04-23 12:29
Winamax (FR)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 45.28%EV -13.73%E -7.22%K -15.25%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 41.97%EV -12.94%E -6.31%K -12.32%G +0.000%6.75I 14.81%NM 12.75%EV -18.16%E -2.69%K -3.16%G +0.000%16.2%2026-04-23 06:09
Tipico (DE)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 44.91%EV -6.92%E -3.37%K -6.59%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 40.92%EV -4.44%E -1.98%K -3.56%G +0.000%6.50I 15.38%NM 14.17%EV -21.20%E -3.26%K -3.85%G +0.000%8.6%2026-04-23 06:15
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (1)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Smarkets◎1.91I 52.36%NM 45.45%2.06I 48.54%NM 42.14%7.00I 14.29%NM 12.40%15.2%2026-04-23 18:05