Language:English
HC Erlangen v GWD Minden
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
HC Erlangen (Local)
Prediction 64.72%1.55fair odd
EV -6.15%
Edge -4.24%
Kelly -13.67%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.90%64.62%64.57%68.13%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.391.401.4573.53%71.69%71.43%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
GWD Minden (Visit)
Prediction 25.70%3.89fair odd
EV +5.39%
Edge +1.31%
Kelly +1.74%
Growth +0.094%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.60%25.57%25.87%26.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.303.743.604.1030.30%26.74%27.78%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 9.57%10.45fair odd
EV -4.26%
Edge -0.426%
Kelly -0.474%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 10.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.27%9.81%9.56%11.88%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.509.369.8010.0013.33%10.69%10.20%10.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: HC Erlangen (Local): 64.72%; GWD Minden (Visit): 25.70%; Draw: 9.57%. For GWD Minden (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.89. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +5.39%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (25 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.97%EV -11.33%E -8.27%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 09:24 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.97%EV -11.33%E -8.27%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 09:24 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.37I 72.99%NM 67.97%EV -11.33%E -8.27%K -30.62%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.71%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.31%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-03-08 09:24 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.13%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 09:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.13%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 09:24 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.13%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 09:39 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.13%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 09:24 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.13%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 09:24 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.13%EV -11.98%E -8.81%K -33.27%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.60%EV +5.39%E +1.31%K +1.74%G +0.094% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.27%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.9% | 2026-03-08 09:39 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 65.31%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.09%EV -1.04%E -0.270%K -0.365%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.60%EV -16.23%E -1.85%K -2.09%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-03-08 15:24 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.54%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 3.70I 27.03%NM 24.80%EV -4.90%E -1.32%K -1.81%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.66%EV -9.05%E -0.953%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-08 15:09 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.51%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 3.65I 27.40%NM 25.13%EV -6.18%E -1.69%K -2.33%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.36%EV -6.18%E -0.630%K -0.702%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-03-08 15:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.61%EV -6.15%E -4.24%K -13.67%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.02%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.37%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-03-08 13:00 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.43I 69.93%NM 64.93%EV -7.45%E -5.21%K -17.32%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.79%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.28%EV -4.26%E -0.426%K -0.474%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.09%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.31%EV -7.47%E -2.07%K -2.87%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.59%EV -9.05%E -0.953%K -1.06%G +0.000% | 9.7% | 2026-03-08 15:05 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.42I 70.42%NM 64.73%EV -8.09%E -5.70%K -19.27%G +0.000% | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.89%EV -8.75%E -2.47%K -3.43%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.38%EV -6.18%E -0.630%K -0.702%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-03-08 15:05 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.53%EV -8.74%E -6.20%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.48%EV -8.09%E -0.843%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.41I 70.92%NM 64.53%EV -8.74%E -6.20%K -21.32%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.00%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 9.60I 10.42%NM 9.48%EV -8.09%E -0.843%K -0.941%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-03-08 15:05 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.49%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -23.41%E -2.93%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.49%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -23.41%E -2.93%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-08 15:24 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 63.49%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 3.50I 28.57%NM 25.40%EV -10.04%E -2.87%K -4.01%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.11%EV -23.41%E -2.93%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-03-08 15:24 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.40I 71.43%NM 64.22%EV -9.39%E -6.71%K -23.47%G +0.000% | 3.43I 29.15%NM 26.21%EV -11.84%E -3.45%K -4.87%G +0.000% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.56%EV -10.01%E -1.06%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-03-08 15:03 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.90%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -28.20%E -3.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-08 01:04 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.44I 69.44%NM 61.90%EV -6.80%E -4.72%K -15.45%G +0.000% | 3.40I 29.41%NM 26.22%EV -12.61%E -3.71%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 11.88%EV -28.20%E -3.76%K -4.34%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-03-08 01:29 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.38I 72.46%NM 63.63%EV -10.68%E -7.74%K -28.11%G +0.000% | 3.30I 30.30%NM 26.61%EV -15.18%E -4.60%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 9.76%EV -13.84%E -1.54%K -1.73%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.37I 72.99%NM 63.14% | 3.20I 31.25%NM 27.03% | 8.80I 11.36%NM 9.83% | 15.6% | 2026-03-08 15:04 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 44.27% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 11.46% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 44.27% | 123.7% | 2026-03-08 15:20 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 44.27% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 11.46% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 44.27% | 123.7% | 2026-03-08 15:25 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.01I 99.01%NM 44.27% | 3.90I 25.64%NM 11.46% | 1.01I 99.01%NM 44.27% | 123.7% | 2026-03-08 15:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.84% | 3.46I 28.90%NM 27.16% | 6.4% | 2026-03-08 15:00 |