Language:English
Füchse Berlin v VfL Gummersbach
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Füchse Berlin (Local)
Prediction 69.60%1.44fair odd
EV -6.04%
Edge -4.48%
Kelly -17.27%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.99%70.09%69.65%76.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.281.271.3583.33%78.10%78.43%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
VfL Gummersbach (Visit)
Prediction 21.87%4.57fair odd
EV +31.23%
Edge +5.20%
Kelly +6.25%
Growth +1.95%
assuming max odds 6.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.08%21.39%21.89%23.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.804.664.556.0026.32%21.47%21.98%16.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.53%11.72fair odd
EV +10.90%
Edge +0.839%
Kelly +0.908%
Growth +0.099%
assuming max odds 13.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
7.35%8.52%8.47%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5010.4610.5013.0010.53%9.56%9.52%7.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Füchse Berlin (Local): 69.60%; VfL Gummersbach (Visit): 21.87%; Draw: 8.53%. For VfL Gummersbach (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.57. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +31.23%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.40%EV -16.48%E -13.74%K -82.41%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV +31.23%E +5.20%K +6.25%G +1.95% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -18.96%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| Coral🎯 | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.40%EV -16.48%E -13.74%K -82.41%G +0.000% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.08%EV +31.23%E +5.20%K +6.25%G +1.95% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.52%EV -18.96%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 10.5% | 2026-04-23 12:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.45%EV -13.00%E -10.40%K -52.01%G +0.000% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.20%EV +29.04%E +4.92%K +5.93%G +1.72% | 13.00I 7.69%NM 7.35%EV +10.90%E +0.839%K +0.908%G +0.099% | 4.6% | 2026-04-23 12:24 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:39 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:39 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:39 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.46%EV -11.61%E -9.14%K -43.00%G +0.000% | 4.90I 20.41%NM 18.78%EV +7.17%E +1.46%K +1.84%G +0.132% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.76%EV -10.43%E -0.993%K -1.10%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 14:39 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.22I 81.97%NM 72.38%EV -15.09%E -12.37%K -68.59%G +0.000% | 4.70I 21.28%NM 18.79%EV +2.80%E +0.595%K +0.756%G +0.021% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.83%EV -14.69%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 13.2% | 2026-04-23 14:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.74%EV -9.52%E -7.33%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.90%EV -3.77%E -0.856%K -1.11%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.36%EV -6.16%E -0.560%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 16:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.09%EV -7.43%E -5.59%K -22.53%G +0.000% | 4.35I 22.99%NM 21.43%EV -4.86%E -1.12%K -1.45%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.47%EV -6.16%E -0.560%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-04-23 16:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.92%EV -9.52%E -7.33%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.99%EV -5.30%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.09%EV -14.69%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-04-23 16:49 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.75%EV -10.22%E -7.92%K -35.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -5.30%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -18.96%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-23 16:54 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.75%EV -10.22%E -7.92%K -35.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -5.30%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -18.96%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-23 16:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.75%EV -10.22%E -7.92%K -35.24%G +0.000% | 4.33I 23.09%NM 20.78%EV -5.30%E -1.22%K -1.59%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.47%EV -18.96%E -2.00%K -2.23%G +0.000% | 11.1% | 2026-04-23 16:49 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 70.34%EV -8.13%E -6.16%K -25.41%G +0.000% | 4.30I 23.26%NM 21.59%EV -5.95%E -1.38%K -1.80%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.07%EV -1.90%E -0.165%K -0.181%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-04-23 16:50 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -8.13%E -6.16%K -25.41%G +0.000% | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -8.14%E -1.94%K -2.54%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -6.16%E -0.560%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-23 16:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.51%EV -8.83%E -6.74%K -28.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -6.16%E -0.560%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-23 16:48 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.31I 76.34%NM 69.51%EV -8.83%E -6.74%K -28.47%G +0.000% | 4.10I 24.39%NM 22.21%EV -10.33%E -2.52%K -3.33%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.28%EV -6.16%E -0.560%K -0.616%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-23 16:50 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.99%EV -6.04%E -4.48%K -17.27%G +0.000% | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.06%EV -12.95%E -3.25%K -4.35%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.95%EV -12.56%E -1.23%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-04-23 16:49 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 1.28I 78.13%NM 68.47%EV -10.91%E -8.53%K -38.98%G +0.000% | 3.85I 25.97%NM 22.76%EV -15.80%E -4.10%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.76%EV -14.69%E -1.47%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 14.1% | 2026-04-23 16:49 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.08%EV -9.52%E -7.33%K -31.74%G +0.000% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 23.29%EV -16.89%E -4.44%K -6.03%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.63%EV -12.56%E -1.23%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-04-23 16:48 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 1.27I 78.74%NM 68.06% | 3.80I 26.32%NM 22.75% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.20% | 15.7% | 2026-04-23 16:49 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.21I 82.64%NM 77.17% | 4.09I 24.45%NM 22.83% | 7.1% | 2026-04-23 16:50 |