Language:English
Bergischer HC v VfL Gummersbach
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bergischer HC (Local)
Prediction 17.34%5.77fair odd
EV +23.12%
Edge +3.26%
Kelly +3.79%
Growth +0.877%
assuming max odds 7.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
13.40%17.03%17.54%18.76%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.735.435.407.1021.14%18.40%18.52%14.08%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
VfL Gummersbach (Visit)
Prediction 74.94%1.33fair odd
EV -7.08%
Edge -5.71%
Kelly -29.50%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.24
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
73.35%75.38%74.79%81.31%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.161.211.231.2486.21%82.49%81.30%80.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 7.72%12.95fair odd
EV +39.01%
Edge +2.17%
Kelly +2.29%
Growth +0.895%
assuming max odds 18.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
5.29%7.60%7.67%8.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
10.0011.6811.5018.0010.00%8.56%8.70%5.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bergischer HC (Local): 17.34%; VfL Gummersbach (Visit): 74.94%; Draw: 7.72%. For Draw, that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 12.95. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 18.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +39.01%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coolbet🎯 | 7.10I 14.08%NM 13.40%EV +23.12%E +3.26%K +3.79%G +0.877% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.31%EV -12.32%E -10.53%K -72.50%G +0.000% | 18.00I 5.56%NM 5.29%EV +39.01%E +2.17%K +2.29%G +0.895% | 5.1% | 2026-04-02 08:45 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.42%EV +4.05%E +0.675%K +0.809%G +0.033% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 77.73%EV -10.83%E -9.10%K -56.98%G +0.000% | 13.50I 7.41%NM 6.85%EV +4.26%E +0.315%K +0.341%G +0.014% | 8.1% | 2026-04-01 12:39 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.76%EV -4.62%E -0.841%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 75.56%EV -8.58%E -7.03%K -38.99%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.68%EV -7.33%E -0.611%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-01 19:00 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.53%EV -8.96%E -1.71%K -2.11%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.81%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.67%EV -7.33%E -0.611%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-04-02 07:30 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.66%EV -9.83%E -1.89%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.68%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.65%EV -7.33%E -0.611%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-02 07:35 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -13.29%E -2.66%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.16%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.60%EV -7.33%E -0.611%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-01 17:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.24%EV -13.29%E -2.66%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.16%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.60%EV -7.33%E -0.611%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 9.6% | 2026-04-01 17:49 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.55%EV -4.62%E -0.841%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 75.86%EV -10.08%E -8.40%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 7.59%EV -7.33%E -0.611%K -0.666%G +0.000% | 9.8% | 2026-04-02 07:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:34 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:34 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:34 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:35 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:34 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:35 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:34 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:34 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.07%EV -6.36%E -1.18%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 74.92%EV -7.83%E -6.36%K -34.04%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.01%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-04-02 09:32 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.00%EV -11.56%E -2.27%K -2.82%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 74.02%EV -7.08%E -5.71%K -29.50%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.98%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 8.9% | 2026-04-02 16:50 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 5.30I 18.87%NM 16.58%EV -8.09%E -1.53%K -1.88%G +0.000% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 75.77%EV -13.07%E -11.27%K -81.71%G +0.000% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 7.64%EV -11.19%E -0.973%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 13.8% | 2026-04-02 07:35 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 4.73I 21.14%NM 18.76%EV -17.98%E -3.80%K -4.82%G +0.000% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 73.35%EV -9.33%E -7.71%K -44.42%G +0.000% | 11.25I 8.89%NM 7.89%EV -13.12%E -1.17%K -1.28%G +0.000% | 12.7% | 2026-04-02 16:49 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -0.288%E -0.050%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -11.58%E -9.81%K -64.31%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -15.05%E -1.37%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-01 17:49 |
| Coral🎯 | 5.75I 17.39%NM 15.64%EV -0.288%E -0.050%K -0.061%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 76.19%EV -11.58%E -9.81%K -64.31%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.17%EV -15.05%E -1.37%K -1.51%G +0.000% | 11.2% | 2026-04-01 17:49 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 17.50%EV -13.29%E -2.66%K -3.32%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 74.16%EV -11.58%E -9.81%K -64.31%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.33%EV -18.91%E -1.80%K -1.99%G +0.000% | 14.3% | 2026-04-02 09:34 |
| 888sport🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -4.62%E -0.841%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.08%E -8.40%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -22.77%E -2.28%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-01 17:49 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -4.62%E -0.841%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.08%E -8.40%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -22.77%E -2.28%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-01 17:50 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.30%EV -4.62%E -0.841%K -1.03%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 74.73%EV -10.08%E -8.40%K -50.38%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.97%EV -22.77%E -2.28%K -2.53%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-04-01 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 4.50I 22.22%NM 19.31% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 72.41% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.28% | 15.1% | 2026-04-02 07:35 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.77I 20.96%NM 19.56% | 1.16I 86.21%NM 80.44% | 7.2% | 2026-04-02 12:20 |