Language:English
Bergischer HC v THW Kiel
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bergischer HC (Local)
Prediction 23.27%4.30fair odd
EV +7.05%
Edge +1.53%
Kelly +1.96%
Growth +0.138%
assuming max odds 4.60
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
19.98%23.44%23.19%26.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.604.214.104.6027.78%23.74%24.39%21.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
THW Kiel (Visit)
Prediction 67.80%1.47fair odd
EV +0.343%
Edge +0.232%
Kelly +0.714%
Growth +0.002%
assuming max odds 1.48
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
64.14%67.64%67.80%71.26%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.311.301.4880.65%76.11%76.92%67.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 8.93%11.20fair odd
EV -1.77%
Edge -0.161%
Kelly -0.177%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 11.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.37%8.92%9.01%9.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
9.5010.2510.3811.0010.53%9.75%9.64%9.09%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bergischer HC (Local): 23.27%; THW Kiel (Visit): 67.80%; Draw: 8.93%. For Bergischer HC (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 4.30. 12 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.05%.
1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.
Sportsbook Odds (26 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:39 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.98%EV +7.05%E +1.53%K +1.96%G +0.138% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.26%EV -12.54%E -9.72%K -43.24%G +0.000% | 10.50I 9.52%NM 8.75%EV -6.24%E -0.594%K -0.657%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV +2.39%E +0.544%K +0.704%G +0.017% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.48%EV -13.22%E -10.33%K -47.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -10.70%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-24 14:10 |
| Coral🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.50%EV +2.39%E +0.544%K +0.704%G +0.017% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.48%EV -13.22%E -10.33%K -47.20%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.02%EV -10.70%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-05-24 14:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 20.05%EV +2.39%E +0.544%K +0.704%G +0.017% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.13%EV -15.93%E -12.85%K -66.37%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 8.82%EV -10.70%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 13.4% | 2026-05-24 10:40 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 21.91%EV -2.26%E -0.538%K -0.707%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 69.72%EV -10.50%E -7.96%K -32.83%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.37%EV -1.77%E -0.161%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Winamax (DE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.23%EV -6.92%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.32%EV -7.79%E -5.73%K -21.65%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.45%EV -1.77%E -0.161%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.11%EV -6.92%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.48%EV -8.47%E -6.27%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.40%EV -1.77%E -0.161%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-05-24 14:10 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.69%EV -6.92%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 68.24%EV -9.83%E -7.39%K -29.78%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.08%EV -10.70%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 10.2% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -6.92%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.86%E -9.12%K -39.54%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -15.17%E -1.60%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -6.92%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.86%E -9.12%K -39.54%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -15.17%E -1.60%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 22.23%EV -6.92%E -1.73%K -2.31%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 68.41%EV -11.86%E -9.12%K -39.54%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.36%EV -15.17%E -1.60%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 3.98I 25.13%NM 23.06%EV -7.38%E -1.85%K -2.48%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 67.99%EV -8.47%E -6.27%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 10.25I 9.76%NM 8.95%EV -8.47%E -0.827%K -0.916%G +0.000% | 9.0% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Codere (IT)🎯 | 3.95I 25.32%NM 23.34%EV -8.08%E -2.05%K -2.74%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 68.28%EV -8.47%E -6.27%K -24.20%G +0.000% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.38%EV -1.77%E -0.161%K -0.177%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.68%EV -9.15%E -6.83%K -26.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -10.70%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 23.25%EV -9.24%E -2.37%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 67.68%EV -9.15%E -6.83%K -26.91%G +0.000% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.07%EV -10.70%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Betclic (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.92%EV -13.90%E -3.76%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 67.05%EV -10.50%E -7.96%K -32.83%G +0.000% | 9.80I 10.20%NM 9.03%EV -12.49%E -1.27%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 13.0% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Winamax (FR)🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 23.73%EV -13.90%E -3.76%K -5.15%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 67.03%EV -11.18%E -8.54%K -36.07%G +0.000% | 9.50I 10.53%NM 9.24%EV -15.17%E -1.60%K -1.78%G +0.000% | 13.9% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.37%EV -16.22%E -4.51%K -6.24%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 64.14%EV +0.343%E +0.232%K +0.714%G +0.002% | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.49%EV -10.70%E -1.07%K -1.19%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-24 12:20 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (1)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Draw | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Smarkets◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 24.08% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 66.69% | 9.40I 10.64%NM 9.22% | 15.3% | 2026-05-24 14:20 |
Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)
These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.
| Bookmaker | Option 1 | Option 2 | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.36% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.64% | 6.6% | 2026-05-24 14:10 |