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Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Bayer Leverkusen (Local)
Prediction 11.96%8.36fair odd
EV +3.46%
Edge +0.400%
Kelly +0.452%
Growth +0.016%
assuming max odds 8.65
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.43%11.88%11.98%14.61%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.106.927.008.6516.39%14.44%14.29%11.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Bayern Munich (Visit)
Prediction 71.08%1.41fair odd
EV -4.05%
Edge -3.00%
Kelly -11.56%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.35
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
66.02%71.10%70.82%73.32%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.201.301.291.3583.33%77.00%77.52%74.07%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Draw
Prediction 16.96%5.90fair odd
EV -3.83%
Edge -0.675%
Kelly -0.819%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 5.67
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.17%17.01%17.20%19.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.504.914.805.6722.22%20.36%20.83%17.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Bayer Leverkusen (Local): 11.96%; Bayern Munich (Visit): 71.08%; Draw: 16.96%. For Bayer Leverkusen (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.36. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 8.65, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.46%.
Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Draw | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1xBet🎯 | 8.65I 11.56%NM 10.43%EV +3.46%E +0.400%K +0.452%G +0.016% | 1.23I 81.30%NM 73.32%EV -12.57%E -10.22%K -54.67%G +0.000% | 5.55I 18.02%NM 16.25%EV -5.86%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-14 15:55 |
| Tipico (DE)🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV +1.67%E +0.196%K +0.222%G +0.004% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 72.08%EV -11.15%E -8.92%K -44.61%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -11.80%E -2.27%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 11.0% | 2026-09-14 15:01 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.28I 12.08%NM 11.14%EV -0.966%E -0.117%K -0.133%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 72.60%EV -9.73%E -7.66%K -36.04%G +0.000% | 5.67I 17.64%NM 16.26%EV -3.83%E -0.675%K -0.819%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-09-14 15:45 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.30%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.19%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-14 15:51 |
| William Hill🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.30%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.19%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-14 15:55 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.30%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.19%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-14 15:51 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.30%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.66%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.19%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000% | 10.9% | 2026-09-14 15:51 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.60%E -5.85%K -25.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -10.95%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-09-14 15:01 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -9.02%E -7.05%K -32.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -10.95%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-14 15:35 |
| Coral🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -9.02%E -7.05%K -32.22%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -10.95%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000% | 11.5% | 2026-09-14 15:35 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%EV -11.15%E -8.92%K -44.61%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -6.71%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 12.5% | 2026-09-14 15:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 11.92%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 69.54%EV -14.71%E -12.26%K -73.54%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.54%EV -23.67%E -5.26%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-09-14 15:14 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 11.92%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 69.54%EV -14.71%E -12.26%K -73.54%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 18.54%EV -23.67%E -5.26%K -6.76%G +0.000% | 19.8% | 2026-09-14 15:45 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
| Unibet🎯 | 6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 12.2% | 2026-09-14 15:15 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.