默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Bayer Leverkusen v Bayern Munich

开赛时间： 2026-09-14 16:02 UTC

最终结果： Bayer Leverkusen 2–3 Bayern Munich

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

22 家博彩公司 (5 家纳入分析 )

12%

71%

17%

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Bayer Leverkusen (主队)

预测 11.96%8.36公平赔率

EV +3.46%

优势 +0.400%

Kelly +0.452%

增长率 +0.016%

假设最高赔率为 8.65

博彩公司预测分布

10.43%11.88%11.98%14.61%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

6.106.927.008.6516.39%14.44%14.29%11.56%最小值均值中位数最大值

Bayern Munich (客队)

预测 71.08%1.41公平赔率

EV -4.05%

优势 -3.00%

Kelly -11.56%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.35

博彩公司预测分布

66.02%71.10%70.82%73.32%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

1.201.301.291.3583.33%77.00%77.52%74.07%最小值均值中位数最大值

平局

预测 16.96%5.90公平赔率

EV -3.83%

优势 -0.675%

Kelly -0.819%

增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 5.67

博彩公司预测分布

16.17%17.01%17.20%19.37%最小值均值中位数最大值

赔率分布

4.504.914.805.6722.22%20.36%20.83%17.64%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Bayer Leverkusen (主队)：11.96%；Bayern Munich (客队)：71.08%；平局：16.96%。对于“Bayer Leverkusen (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为8.36。当时有2家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为8.65，对应+3.46%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (22 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司	主队 ▼	客队	平局	利润率	更新时间
1xBet🎯	8.65I 11.56%NM 10.43%EV +3.46%E +0.400%K +0.452%G +0.016%	1.23I 81.30%NM 73.32%EV -12.57%E -10.22%K -54.67%G +0.000%	5.55I 18.02%NM 16.25%EV -5.86%E -1.06%K -1.29%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-09-14 15:55
Tipico (DE)🎯	8.50I 11.76%NM 10.60%EV +1.67%E +0.196%K +0.222%G +0.004%	1.25I 80.00%NM 72.08%EV -11.15%E -8.92%K -44.61%G +0.000%	5.20I 19.23%NM 17.33%EV -11.80%E -2.27%K -2.81%G +0.000%	11.0%	2026-09-14 15:01
Pinnacle🎯	8.28I 12.08%NM 11.14%EV -0.966%E -0.117%K -0.133%G +0.000%	1.27I 78.74%NM 72.60%EV -9.73%E -7.66%K -36.04%G +0.000%	5.67I 17.64%NM 16.26%EV -3.83%E -0.675%K -0.819%G +0.000%	8.5%	2026-09-14 15:45
888sport🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.30%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.66%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.19%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-09-14 15:51
William Hill🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.30%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.66%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.19%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-09-14 15:55
888sport (SE)🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.30%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.66%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.19%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-09-14 15:51
Mr Green (SE)🎯	7.50I 13.33%NM 12.03%EV -10.30%E -1.37%K -1.58%G +0.000%	1.29I 77.52%NM 69.93%EV -8.31%E -6.44%K -28.66%G +0.000%	5.00I 20.00%NM 18.04%EV -15.19%E -3.04%K -3.80%G +0.000%	10.9%	2026-09-14 15:51
Unibet (UK)🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.96%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.30I 76.92%NM 69.77%EV -7.60%E -5.85%K -25.33%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.28%EV -10.95%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%	10.3%	2026-09-14 15:01
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -9.02%E -7.05%K -32.22%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -10.95%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-09-14 15:35
Coral🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.82%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.28I 78.13%NM 70.09%EV -9.02%E -7.05%K -32.22%G +0.000%	5.25I 19.05%NM 17.09%EV -10.95%E -2.09%K -2.58%G +0.000%	11.5%	2026-09-14 15:35
BoyleSports🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 12.70%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.25I 80.00%NM 71.13%EV -11.15%E -8.92%K -44.61%G +0.000%	5.50I 18.18%NM 16.17%EV -6.71%E -1.22%K -1.49%G +0.000%	12.5%	2026-09-14 15:40
betano_uk🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 11.92%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 69.54%EV -14.71%E -12.26%K -73.54%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 18.54%EV -23.67%E -5.26%K -6.76%G +0.000%	19.8%	2026-09-14 15:14
Bet Victor🎯	7.00I 14.29%NM 11.92%EV -16.28%E -2.33%K -2.71%G +0.000%	1.20I 83.33%NM 69.54%EV -14.71%E -12.26%K -73.54%G +0.000%	4.50I 22.22%NM 18.54%EV -23.67%E -5.26%K -6.76%G +0.000%	19.8%	2026-09-14 15:45
Unibet (NL)🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15
Unibet (SE)🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15
LiveScore Bet🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15
LeoVegas (SE)🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15
Virgin Bet🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15
Grosvenor🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15
Svenska Spel🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15
ATG (SE)🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15
Unibet🎯	6.10I 16.39%NM 14.61%EV -27.04%E -4.43%K -5.30%G +0.000%	1.35I 74.07%NM 66.02%EV -4.05%E -3.00%K -11.56%G +0.000%	4.60I 21.74%NM 19.37%EV -21.97%E -4.78%K -6.10%G +0.000%	12.2%	2026-09-14 15:15

利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。