Language:English
Namibia v South Africa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Namibia (Local)
Prediction 19.61%5.10fair odd
EV +20.99%
Edge +3.40%
Kelly +4.06%
Growth +0.852%
assuming max odds 6.17
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
15.36%18.97%19.73%21.42%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.334.864.836.1723.09%20.56%20.70%16.21%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
South Africa (Visit)
Prediction 80.39%1.24fair odd
EV -3.53%
Edge -2.94%
Kelly -17.66%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
78.58%81.03%80.27%84.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.171.171.2089.29%85.27%85.47%83.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Namibia (Local): 19.61%; South Africa (Visit): 80.39%. For Namibia (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.10. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 6.17, corresponding to a positive expected value of +20.99%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle🎯 | 6.17I 16.21%NM 15.36%EV +20.99%E +3.40%K +4.06%G +0.852% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.64%EV -9.96%E -8.90%K -83.02%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 6.00I 16.67%NM 15.73%EV +17.66%E +2.94%K +3.53%G +0.624% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 84.27%EV -9.96%E -8.90%K -83.02%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 06:39 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-04 11:45 |
| Unibet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Casumo🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -1.95%E -0.390%K -0.488%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.91%E -0.798%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 11:49 |
| Betsson🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.41%EV -3.91%E -0.798%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.59%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-04 11:49 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.28%EV -3.91%E -0.798%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.72%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 4.90I 20.41%NM 19.01%EV -3.91%E -0.798%K -1.00%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.99%EV -7.55%E -6.57%K -50.34%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 4.83I 20.70%NM 19.90%EV -5.28%E -1.09%K -1.38%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 80.10%EV -3.53%E -2.94%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.73%EV -5.87%E -1.22%K -1.55%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.27%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 11:45 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 4.75I 21.05%NM 19.76%EV -6.85%E -1.44%K -1.83%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.24%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.20%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.19I 84.03%NM 79.80%EV -4.34%E -3.64%K -22.82%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 20.07%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.93%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-04 11:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 4.70I 21.28%NM 19.93%EV -7.83%E -1.67%K -2.12%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.07%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -9.79%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -3.53%E -2.94%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-09-04 11:49 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -9.79%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -9.79%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-09-04 11:49 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.00%EV -9.79%E -2.13%K -2.72%G +0.000% | 1.15I 86.96%NM 80.00%EV -7.55%E -6.57%K -50.34%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-09-04 11:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -3.53%E -2.94%K -17.66%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-04 11:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.77%EV -11.76%E -2.61%K -3.36%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.23%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 7.0% | 2026-09-04 11:50 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.40I 22.73%NM 21.01%EV -13.72%E -3.12%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.17I 85.47%NM 78.99%EV -5.94%E -5.08%K -34.96%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-09-04 11:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 4.33I 23.09%NM 21.42%EV -15.09%E -3.48%K -4.53%G +0.000% | 1.18I 84.75%NM 78.58%EV -5.14%E -4.36%K -28.55%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-04 11:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.15% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.85% | 0.1% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.15% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 81.85% | 0.1% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |
| Matchbook◎ | 5.50I 18.18%NM 18.03% | 1.21I 82.64%NM 81.97% | 0.8% | 2026-09-04 11:55 |