Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

London Spirit v Birmingham Phoenix

Kickoff: 2026-08-09 17:04 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

63%

37%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

London Spirit (Local)

Prediction 62.66%1.60fair odd

EV -1.62%

Edge -1.03%

Kelly -2.85%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.57

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

60.25%62.57%62.53%64.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.441.511.501.5769.44%66.38%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Birmingham Phoenix (Visit)

Prediction 37.34%2.68fair odd

EV +0.819%

Edge +0.303%

Kelly +0.482%

Growth +0.004%

assuming max odds 2.70

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

35.25%37.43%37.47%39.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.382.552.502.7042.02%39.28%40.00%37.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: London Spirit (Local): 62.66%; Birmingham Phoenix (Visit): 37.34%. For Birmingham Phoenix (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.70, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.819%.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

Bookmaker	Local	Visit ▼	Margin	Updated
BetOnline.ag🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 64.13%EV -5.38%E -3.57%K -10.56%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.87%EV +0.819%E +0.303%K +0.482%G +0.004%	3.3%	2026-08-09 17:00
Bet Right🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 64.75%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%	2.70I 37.04%NM 35.25%EV +0.819%E +0.303%K +0.482%G +0.004%	5.1%	2026-08-09 16:50
Unibet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.79%E -0.682%K -1.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 17:00
Virgin Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.79%E -0.682%K -1.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 17:00
Grosvenor🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.79%E -0.682%K -1.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 17:00
LiveScore Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.79%E -0.682%K -1.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 17:00
Unibet (SE)🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.79%E -0.682%K -1.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 17:00
Casumo🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.79%E -0.682%K -1.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 17:00
TABtouch🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.83%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.63I 38.02%NM 36.17%EV -1.79%E -0.682%K -1.10%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 17:00
betfred_uk🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%	2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.17%E -0.828%K -1.34%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-08-09 16:55
NordicBet🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.91%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 16:55
Betsson🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.91%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 16:55
888sport🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.91%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 16:45
PointsBet (AU)🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.91%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 16:55
William Hill🎯	1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.01%E -4.01%K -12.02%G +0.000%	2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.91%E -1.12%K -1.82%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 16:49
Betr (AU)🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 63.12%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.55I 39.22%NM 36.88%EV -4.78%E -1.88%K -3.09%G +0.000%	6.3%	2026-08-09 16:54
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.88%E -1.86%K -5.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-09 16:54
Neds🎯	1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.88%E -1.86%K -5.23%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	4.5%	2026-08-09 16:55
Coral🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.13%E -2.70%K -7.79%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-09 16:55
Unibet (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.13%E -2.70%K -7.79%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-09 16:53
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.13%E -2.70%K -7.79%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-09 16:54
Sky Bet🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.13%E -2.70%K -7.79%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-09 16:55
Paddy Power🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.13%E -2.70%K -7.79%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-09 16:55
Betway🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.13%E -2.70%K -7.79%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-09 16:54
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.13%E -2.70%K -7.79%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-08-09 16:54
TAB🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.76%E -3.13%K -9.15%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-08-09 17:00
SportsBet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.66%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.34%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-08-09 16:55
theScore Bet🎯	1.47I 68.03%NM 62.97%EV -7.89%E -5.37%K -16.79%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 37.03%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	8.0%	2026-08-09 16:45
Bet Victor🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-08-09 16:53
betano_uk🎯	1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.77%E -6.78%K -22.20%G +0.000%	2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -6.65%E -2.66%K -4.43%G +0.000%	9.4%	2026-08-09 16:54
Pinnacle🎯	1.54I 64.94%NM 61.79%EV -3.50%E -2.28%K -6.49%G +0.000%	2.49I 40.16%NM 38.21%EV -7.02%E -2.82%K -4.71%G +0.000%	5.1%	2026-08-09 16:55
BetUS🎯	1.53I 65.36%NM 61.65%EV -4.13%E -2.70%K -7.79%G +0.000%	2.46I 40.65%NM 38.35%EV -8.14%E -3.31%K -5.58%G +0.000%	6.0%	2026-08-09 16:55
PlayUp🎯	1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.76%E -3.13%K -9.15%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.87%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-08-09 16:59
DraftKings🎯	1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -5.38%E -3.57%K -10.56%G +0.000%	2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.52%E -3.48%K -5.87%G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-08-09 16:54
Marathon Bet🎯	1.49I 67.11%NM 62.09%EV -6.64%E -4.45%K -13.55%G +0.000%	2.44I 40.98%NM 37.91%EV -8.89%E -3.64%K -6.17%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-08-09 16:50
BoyleSports🎯	1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -1.62%E -1.03%K -2.85%G +0.000%	2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -11.13%E -4.68%K -8.07%G +0.000%	5.7%	2026-08-09 16:44

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎	1.57I 63.69%NM 63.57%	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.43%	0.2%	2026-08-09 17:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎	1.55I 64.52%NM 64.20%	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.80%	0.5%	2026-08-09 17:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	0.6%	2026-08-09 16:55
Matchbook◎	1.56I 64.10%NM 63.72%	2.74I 36.50%NM 36.28%	0.6%	2026-08-09 17:00
Smarkets◎	1.53I 65.36%NM 64.50%	2.78I 35.97%NM 35.50%	1.3%	2026-08-09 17:00