The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Birmingham Phoenix v MI London

Kickoff: 2026-08-12 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

36 sportsbooks (12 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Birmingham Phoenix (Local)

Prediction 37.33%2.68fair odd
EV -1.07%
Edge -0.404%
Kelly -0.649%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.65

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.84%37.35%37.42%38.75%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.402.512.502.6541.67%39.90%40.00%37.74%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

MI London (Visit)

Prediction 62.67%1.60fair odd
EV -2.24%
Edge -1.43%
Kelly -4.00%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.56

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
61.25%62.65%62.58%64.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.461.521.521.5668.49%65.69%65.57%64.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Birmingham Phoenix (Local): 37.33%; MI London (Visit): 62.67%. For Birmingham Phoenix (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.68. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 2.65, with an expected value of -1.07%; they did not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (36 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Bet Right🎯2.65I 37.74%NM 35.84%EV -1.07%E -0.404%K -0.649%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 64.16%EV -7.25%E -4.90%K -15.11%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:14
betfred_uk🎯2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.19%E -0.836%K -1.35%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.00%E -4.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-12 17:15
BoyleSports🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.94%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.00%E -4.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 17:00
888sport🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.94%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.00%E -4.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 17:05
William Hill🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.94%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.00%E -4.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 17:09
Pinnacle🎯2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.94%E -1.13%K -1.84%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.00%E -4.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-12 17:15
BetOnline.ag🎯2.57I 38.91%NM 37.77%EV -4.06%E -1.58%K -2.58%G +0.000%1.56I 64.10%NM 62.23%EV -2.24%E -1.43%K -4.00%G +0.000%3.0%2026-08-12 17:05
Unibet (UK)🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.50%EV -4.80%E -1.88%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.50%EV -4.12%E -2.69%K -7.77%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-12 17:25
NordicBet🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.80%E -1.88%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.74%E -3.12%K -9.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 17:14
Betsson🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -4.80%E -1.88%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -4.74%E -3.12%K -9.12%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-12 17:15
DraftKings🎯2.55I 39.22%NM 36.72%EV -4.80%E -1.88%K -3.10%G +0.000%1.48I 67.57%NM 63.28%EV -7.25%E -4.90%K -15.11%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-12 17:14
Marathon Bet🎯2.52I 39.68%NM 36.68%EV -5.92%E -2.35%K -3.90%G +0.000%1.46I 68.49%NM 63.32%EV -8.50%E -5.83%K -18.49%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-12 17:05
Neds🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-12 17:25
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%4.5%2026-08-12 17:25
PointsBet (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.12%E -2.69%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 17:25
Coral🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.12%E -2.69%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 17:05
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.12%E -2.69%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 17:05
Sky Bet🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.12%E -2.69%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 17:05
Paddy Power🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.12%E -2.69%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 17:05
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.12%E -2.69%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 17:04
Betway🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.12%E -2.69%K -7.77%G +0.000%5.4%2026-08-12 17:25
Betr (AU)🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.74%E -3.12%K -9.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 17:25
TAB🎯2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.67%E -2.67%K -4.45%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.74%E -3.12%K -9.12%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-12 17:09
BetUS🎯2.47I 40.49%NM 38.10%EV -7.79%E -3.15%K -5.30%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.90%EV -4.74%E -3.12%K -9.12%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-12 17:04
Unibet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:15
TABtouch🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:14
Grosvenor🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:14
Unibet (SE)🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:14
LiveScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:14
Virgin Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:14
Casumo🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -2.86%E -1.85%K -5.21%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-12 17:14
PlayUp🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.74%E -3.12%K -9.12%G +0.000%6.6%2026-08-12 17:05
SportsBet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 38.13%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.51I 66.23%NM 61.87%EV -5.37%E -3.56%K -10.53%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-12 17:09
theScore Bet🎯2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -8.54%E -3.48%K -5.89%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -6.00%E -4.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%7.5%2026-08-12 17:19
betano_uk🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.40%E -4.33%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.00%E -4.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 17:19
Bet Victor🎯2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.40%E -4.33%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.00%E -4.00%K -12.00%G +0.000%8.3%2026-08-12 17:13
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76%0.2%2026-08-12 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76%0.2%2026-08-12 17:25
Matchbook◎2.68I 37.31%NM 37.24%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.76%0.2%2026-08-12 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-08-12 17:25
Smarkets◎2.66I 37.59%NM 36.97%1.56I 64.10%NM 63.03%1.7%2026-08-12 17:25