The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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England v Pakistan

2026-08-19 10:00 UTC — Test Matches

Head to Head

8 sportsbooks (3 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 61.63%1.62fair odd
EV -2.62%
Edge -1.66%
Kelly -4.52%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.58

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
59.77%61.63%61.89%62.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.521.501.5866.67%65.79%66.67%63.29%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Pakistan (Visit)

Prediction 27.84%3.59fair odd
EV +0.233%
Edge +0.065%
Kelly +0.089%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
25.77%27.84%27.66%31.41%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.953.353.453.6033.90%29.85%28.99%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Draw

Prediction 10.53%9.50fair odd
EV +10.52%
Edge +1.00%
Kelly +1.11%
Growth +0.117%

assuming max odds 10.50

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
8.82%10.53%10.45%12.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
7.508.758.2510.5013.33%11.43%12.12%9.52%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: England (Local): 61.63%; Pakistan (Visit): 27.84%; Draw: 10.53%. For Draw, that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 9.50. 3 bookmakers offer odds above that level; the best available odds are 10.50, producing a positive expected value of +10.52%.

1 bookmaker offers a different number of options for this market (2-way vs the 3-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (8 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisitDraw ▼MarginUpdated
DraftKings🎯1.53I 65.36%NM 61.30%EV -5.70%E -3.73%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.15I 31.75%NM 29.77%EV -12.30%E -3.90%K -5.72%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.93%EV +10.52%E +1.00%K +1.11%G +0.117%6.6%2026-08-08 11:25
Betr (AU)🎯1.55I 64.52%NM 59.77%EV -4.47%E -2.88%K -8.13%G +0.000%2.95I 33.90%NM 31.41%EV -17.86%E -6.06%K -9.16%G +0.000%10.50I 9.52%NM 8.82%EV +10.52%E +1.00%K +1.11%G +0.117%7.9%2026-08-08 11:24
NordicBet🎯1.58I 63.29%NM 59.96%EV -2.62%E -1.66%K -4.52%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.56%EV -13.69%E -4.42%K -6.52%G +0.000%10.00I 10.00%NM 9.47%EV +5.26%E +0.526%K +0.585%G +0.031%5.5%2026-08-08 11:25
BoyleSports🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 62.20%EV -7.55%E -5.04%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.44%EV -5.34%E -1.57%K -2.22%G +0.000%9.00I 11.11%NM 10.37%EV -5.27%E -0.585%K -0.658%G +0.000%7.2%2026-08-08 11:24
Paddy Power🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.86%EV -7.55%E -5.04%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +0.233%E +0.065%K +0.089%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -21.05%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 11:28
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.86%EV -7.55%E -5.04%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV +0.233%E +0.065%K +0.089%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.37%EV -21.05%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%7.8%2026-08-08 11:39
Bet Victor🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.40%EV -7.55%E -5.04%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -2.55%E -0.729%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -21.05%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 11:24
betano_uk🎯1.50I 66.67%NM 61.40%EV -7.55%E -5.04%K -15.11%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -2.55%E -0.729%K -1.02%G +0.000%7.50I 13.33%NM 12.28%EV -21.05%E -2.81%K -3.24%G +0.000%8.6%2026-08-08 11:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitDrawMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 54.53%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.79%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.67%6.6%2026-08-08 11:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 54.53%2.86I 34.97%NM 32.79%7.40I 13.51%NM 12.67%6.6%2026-08-08 11:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.72I 58.14%NM 52.96%2.86I 34.97%NM 31.85%6.00I 16.67%NM 15.18%9.8%2026-08-08 11:25

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (1)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Margin ▲Updated
William Hill🎯1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%5.8%2026-08-08 11:24