The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

England v New Zealand

Kickoff: 2026-02-27 13:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

32 sportsbooks (9 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

England (Local)

Prediction 53.97%1.85fair odd
EV -1.23%
Edge -0.675%
Kelly -1.49%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.83

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.49%53.85%54.09%54.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.681.771.761.8359.52%56.56%56.82%54.64%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

New Zealand (Visit)

Prediction 46.03%2.17fair odd
EV -3.34%
Edge -1.59%
Kelly -3.03%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.03%46.15%45.91%47.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.952.042.052.1051.28%49.12%48.78%47.62%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: England (Local): 53.97%; New Zealand (Visit): 46.03%. For England (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.85. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.83, with an expected value of -1.23%; they did not produce positive expected value.

3 bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market (3-way vs the 2-way used in analysis). Analysis results should be taken with caution due to this disparity.

Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
Pinnacle🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.59%EV -1.23%E -0.675%K -1.49%G +0.000%2.03I 49.26%NM 47.41%EV -6.56%E -3.23%K -6.37%G +0.000%3.9%2026-02-27 13:15
Bet Right🎯1.82I 54.95%NM 52.97%EV -1.77%E -0.975%K -2.16%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.03%EV -5.64%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%3.7%2026-02-27 13:19
Unibet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:25
Virgin Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:24
LiveScore Bet🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:24
Grosvenor🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:24
TABtouch🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:24
LeoVegas🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:25
Casumo🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:25
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:24
ATG (SE)🎯1.81I 55.25%NM 52.49%EV -2.31%E -1.28%K -2.86%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.51%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 11:25
Coral🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -2.85%E -1.59%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -3.34%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-27 13:14
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%EV -2.85%E -1.59%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%EV -3.34%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%3.2%2026-02-27 13:20
William Hill🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.85%E -1.59%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 12:15
BoyleSports🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -2.85%E -1.59%K -3.57%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -7.94%E -3.97%K -7.94%G +0.000%5.6%2026-02-27 13:10
Bovada🎯1.77I 56.50%NM 54.26%EV -4.47%E -2.53%K -5.81%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.74%EV -3.34%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.1%2026-02-27 13:18
Unibet (UK)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -5.55%E -3.17%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -3.34%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%4.8%2026-02-27 13:20
PlayUp🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.31%EV -5.55%E -3.17%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.69%EV -4.26%E -2.05%K -3.94%G +0.000%5.2%2026-02-27 13:14
TAB🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.55%E -3.17%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.64%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 13:14
Neds🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.55%E -3.17%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.64%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 13:15
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -5.55%E -3.17%K -7.40%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -5.64%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%5.9%2026-02-27 13:15
Marathon Bet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 52.83%EV -5.55%E -3.17%K -7.40%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.17%EV -9.78%E -4.99%K -10.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-02-27 13:21
DraftKings🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.09%E -3.50%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.64%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 13:14
GTbets🎯1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -6.09%E -3.50%K -8.23%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -5.64%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.3%2026-02-27 13:24
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.63%E -3.83%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.34%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-27 13:20
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -6.63%E -3.83%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -3.34%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.4%2026-02-27 13:14
Betr (AU)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -6.63%E -3.83%K -9.08%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -5.64%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%6.6%2026-02-27 13:19
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -7.17%E -4.17%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -3.34%E -1.59%K -3.03%G +0.000%5.8%2026-02-27 13:19
FanDuel🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -7.17%E -4.17%K -9.96%G +0.000%2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -4.26%E -2.05%K -3.94%G +0.000%6.2%2026-02-27 13:20
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -8.25%E -4.85%K -11.79%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -5.64%E -2.75%K -5.37%G +0.000%7.6%2026-02-27 13:19
Betsson🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -9.33%E -5.55%K -13.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -10.24%E -5.25%K -10.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-27 13:14
NordicBet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 53.72%EV -9.33%E -5.55%K -13.72%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 46.28%EV -10.24%E -5.25%K -10.78%G +0.000%10.8%2026-02-27 13:14
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%0.3%2026-02-27 13:25
Matchbook◎1.81I 55.25%NM 55.09%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.91%0.3%2026-02-27 13:24
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%0.4%2026-02-27 13:20
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.82I 54.95%NM 54.73%2.20I 45.45%NM 45.27%0.4%2026-02-27 13:19
Smarkets◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.68%2.16I 46.30%NM 45.32%2.2%2026-02-27 13:24

Other bookmakers — not included in analysis (3)

These bookmakers offer a different number of options for this market and are excluded from the analysis. Their odds are shown for reference only — the settlement rules of their bets may differ and carry additional uncertainty.

BookmakerOption 1Option 2Option 3Margin ▲Updated
888sport🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.31%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.52%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.3%2026-02-27 13:15
888sport (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.31%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.52%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.3%2026-02-27 13:14
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 53.31%2.00I 50.00%NM 44.52%41.00I 2.44%NM 2.17%12.3%2026-02-27 13:15