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Yorkshire v Somerset
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Yorkshire (Local)
Prediction 43.66%2.29fair odd
EV -1.78%
Edge -0.789%
Kelly -1.42%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.11%43.72%43.59%46.98%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.022.132.152.2549.50%46.98%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Somerset (Visit)
Prediction 56.34%1.77fair odd
EV +0.857%
Edge +0.479%
Kelly +1.09%
Growth +0.009%
assuming max odds 1.79
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.02%56.28%56.41%57.89%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.601.701.671.7962.50%58.67%59.88%55.87%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Yorkshire (Local): 43.66%; Somerset (Visit): 56.34%. For Somerset (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.77. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.79, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.857%.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LiveScore Bet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Casumo | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Grosvenor | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Unibet | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| TABtouch | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.02I 49.50%NM 46.98%EV -11.82%E -5.85%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 53.02%EV +0.857%E +0.479%K +1.09%G +0.009% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| betano_uk | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.52%E -1.46%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:20 |
| William Hill | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.52%E -1.46%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 10:30 |
| BoyleSports | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -8.32%E -3.96%K -7.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -2.52%E -1.46%K -3.46%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| Betway | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.21%E -2.48%K -6.02%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.13I 46.95%NM 44.24%EV -7.01%E -3.29%K -6.21%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.76%EV -4.78%E -2.83%K -6.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-15 13:35 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -10.07%E -4.89%K -9.50%G +0.000% | 1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -5.34%E -3.18%K -7.85%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Sky Bet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Coral | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Paddy Power | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| betfred_uk | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| 888sport | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Neds | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Pinnacle | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.06%EV -7.45%E -3.51%K -6.65%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.94%EV -5.90%E -3.54%K -8.81%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.23%EV -4.83%E -2.22%K -4.09%G +0.000% | 1.66I 60.24%NM 56.77%EV -6.47%E -3.90%K -9.80%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| NordicBet | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.78%E -0.789%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.03%E -4.26%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Betsson | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.31%EV -1.78%E -0.789%K -1.42%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.69%EV -7.03%E -4.26%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| SportsBet | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.03%E -4.26%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| TAB | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -7.03%E -4.26%K -10.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Bet Victor | 2.15I 46.51%NM 42.82%EV -6.14%E -2.86%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 1.61I 62.11%NM 57.18%EV -9.28%E -5.77%K -15.22%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-07-15 15:18 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.11%EV -3.96%E -1.80%K -3.30%G +0.000% | 1.60I 62.50%NM 57.89%EV -9.85%E -6.16%K -16.41%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-07-15 15:17 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 0.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 0.4% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Matchbook | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.70% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 56.30% | 0.4% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.56% | 1.76I 56.82%NM 56.44% | 0.7% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| Smarkets | 2.18I 45.87%NM 44.39% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.61% | 3.3% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |