The School of Odds
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Surrey v Essex

Kickoff: 2026-07-12 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Surrey (Local)

Prediction 59.86%1.67fair odd
EV -4.23%
Edge -2.64%
Kelly -7.05%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
58.90%60.66%59.77%65.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.561.571.6069.44%64.10%63.69%62.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Essex (Visit)

Prediction 40.14%2.49fair odd
EV +10.40%
Edge +3.78%
Kelly +5.94%
Growth +0.617%

assuming max odds 2.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
34.37%39.34%40.23%41.10%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.252.372.352.7544.44%42.22%42.55%36.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -13.81%E -9.59%K -31.38%G +0.000%2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV +10.40%E +3.78%K +5.94%G +0.617%5.8%2026-07-11 01:25
BoyleSports1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -13.81%E -9.59%K -31.38%G +0.000%2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV +5.18%E +1.98%K +3.20%G +0.165%7.6%2026-07-12 17:04
Pinnacle1.48I 67.57%NM 62.91%EV -11.41%E -7.71%K -23.78%G +0.000%2.51I 39.84%NM 37.09%EV +0.761%E +0.303%K +0.504%G +0.004%7.4%2026-07-12 17:19
Sky Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.46%E -1.87%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 17:24
Paddy Power1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.46%E -1.87%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 17:24
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.46%E -1.87%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 17:24
888sport1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.46%E -1.87%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 17:24
betfred_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 60.25%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.38I 42.02%NM 39.75%EV -4.46%E -1.87%K -3.23%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-12 17:24
SportsBet1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -4.86%E -2.05%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:24
Coral1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -4.86%E -2.05%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:24
Ladbrokes (UK)1.57I 63.69%NM 60.15%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.37I 42.19%NM 39.85%EV -4.86%E -2.05%K -3.55%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-12 17:24
NordicBet1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.23%E -2.64%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 17:25
Betsson1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -4.23%E -2.64%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-12 17:24
Unibet (UK)1.58I 63.29%NM 59.80%EV -5.43%E -3.43%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.20%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-12 17:22
Unibet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 17:19
Virgin Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 17:19
LiveScore Bet1.57I 63.69%NM 59.95%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 40.05%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-12 17:20
Grosvenor1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.62%E -4.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-12 17:19
Unibet (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.62%E -4.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-12 17:19
TABtouch1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.62%E -4.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-12 17:19
LeoVegas (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.62%E -4.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-12 17:19
Casumo1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.62%E -4.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-12 17:19
ATG (SE)1.56I 64.10%NM 60.10%EV -6.62%E -4.25%K -11.83%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.90%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%6.7%2026-07-12 17:19
Betr (AU)1.55I 64.52%NM 60.26%EV -7.22%E -4.66%K -13.13%G +0.000%2.35I 42.55%NM 39.74%EV -5.66%E -2.41%K -4.19%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-12 17:24
Ladbrokes (AU)1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.23%E -2.64%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.67%E -3.33%K -5.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 17:24
Neds1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.23%E -2.64%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.67%E -3.33%K -5.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 17:24
TAB1.60I 62.50%NM 58.97%EV -4.23%E -2.64%K -7.05%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 41.03%EV -7.67%E -3.33%K -5.90%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-12 17:24
Betway1.55I 64.52%NM 59.74%EV -7.22%E -4.66%K -13.13%G +0.000%2.30I 43.48%NM 40.26%EV -7.67%E -3.33%K -5.90%G +0.000%8.0%2026-07-12 17:24
Marathon Bet1.55I 64.52%NM 59.64%EV -7.22%E -4.66%K -13.13%G +0.000%2.29I 43.67%NM 40.36%EV -8.07%E -3.52%K -6.26%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-12 17:25
Bet Victor1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-12 17:25
betano_uk1.57I 63.69%NM 58.90%EV -6.03%E -3.84%K -10.57%G +0.000%2.25I 44.44%NM 41.10%EV -9.68%E -4.30%K -7.74%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-12 17:22
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook1.79I 55.87%NM 55.80%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.20%0.1%2026-07-12 17:25
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.74I 57.47%NM 57.35%2.34I 42.74%NM 42.65%0.2%2026-07-12 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.78I 56.18%NM 55.94%2.26I 44.25%NM 44.06%0.4%2026-07-12 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.70I 58.82%NM 58.33%2.38I 42.02%NM 41.67%0.8%2026-07-12 17:25
Smarkets1.75I 57.14%NM 55.92%2.22I 45.05%NM 44.08%2.2%2026-07-12 17:25