Language:English
Nottinghamshire v Surrey
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Nottinghamshire (Local)
Prediction 44.70%2.24fair odd
EV +0.583%
Edge +0.259%
Kelly +0.466%
Growth +0.003%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.41%44.60%44.74%47.37%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.092.102.2550.00%47.80%47.62%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Surrey (Visit)
Prediction 55.30%1.81fair odd
EV -0.466%
Edge -0.259%
Kelly -0.583%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
52.63%55.40%55.26%58.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.591.721.731.8062.89%58.28%57.80%55.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Nottinghamshire (Local): 44.70%; Surrey (Visit): 55.30%. For Nottinghamshire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.583%.
Sportsbook Odds (32 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pinnacle | 2.25I 44.44%NM 41.41%EV +0.583%E +0.259%K +0.466%G +0.003% | 1.59I 62.89%NM 58.59%EV -12.08%E -7.60%K -20.47%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Betsson | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| NordicBet | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| 888sport | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Betway | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -3.89%E -1.81%K -3.38%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-15 15:14 |
| Ladbrokes (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Coral | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| betfred_uk | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:04 |
| Sky Bet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Paddy Power | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| SportsBet | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Neds | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -4.89%E -2.84%K -6.79%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-15 15:19 |
| Betr (AU) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Unibet (UK) | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-15 15:18 |
| TAB | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.12%E -2.92%K -5.57%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-15 15:23 |
| LiveScore Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Virgin Bet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Casumo | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Unibet (SE) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Grosvenor | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| Unibet | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| TABtouch | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| ATG (SE) | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.41%EV -7.02%E -3.37%K -6.50%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.59%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-15 15:15 |
| BetOnline.ag | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.91%EV -8.36%E -4.08%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.74I 57.47%NM 54.09%EV -3.78%E -2.17%K -5.11%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-07-15 14:35 |
| Bet Victor | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.36%E -4.08%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.65%E -4.58%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-15 15:23 |
| betano_uk | 2.05I 48.78%NM 44.89%EV -8.36%E -4.08%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.11%EV -7.65%E -4.58%K -11.43%G +0.000% | 8.7% | 2026-07-15 15:20 |
| Marathon Bet | 2.03I 49.26%NM 45.58%EV -9.25%E -4.56%K -8.98%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.42%EV -6.00%E -3.53%K -8.57%G +0.000% | 8.1% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| William Hill | 2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -10.59%E -5.30%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -0.466%E -0.259%K -0.583%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-07-13 01:49 |
| BoyleSports | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.38%EV -10.59%E -5.30%K -10.59%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 53.62%EV -4.34%E -2.51%K -5.94%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-07-15 15:14 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 1.3% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 1.3% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Matchbook | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.86% | 1.79I 55.87%NM 55.14% | 1.3% | 2026-07-15 15:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.72% | 1.78I 56.18%NM 55.28% | 1.6% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |
| Smarkets | 2.14I 46.73%NM 45.27% | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.73% | 3.2% | 2026-07-15 15:25 |