The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
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Northamptonshire v Somerset

Kickoff: 2026-07-18 10:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

31 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Northamptonshire (Local)

Prediction 38.65%2.59fair odd
EV -1.44%
Edge -0.564%
Kelly -0.927%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.55

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
37.35%39.71%38.70%45.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.092.402.452.5547.85%41.60%40.82%39.22%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Somerset (Visit)

Prediction 61.35%1.63fair odd
EV +6.13%
Edge +3.54%
Kelly +8.40%
Growth +0.515%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.83%60.29%61.30%62.65%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.501.571.551.7366.67%63.85%64.52%57.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Northamptonshire (Local): 38.65%; Somerset (Visit): 61.35%. For Somerset (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.63. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.73, corresponding to a positive expected value of +6.13%.

Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
William Hill2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -18.83%E -8.97%K -17.12%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV +6.13%E +3.54%K +8.40%G +0.515%5.4%2026-07-18 08:05
Pinnacle2.09I 47.85%NM 44.56%EV -19.22%E -9.19%K -17.63%G +0.000%1.68I 59.52%NM 55.44%EV +3.06%E +1.82%K +4.51%G +0.138%7.4%2026-07-18 08:20
Marathon Bet2.14I 46.73%NM 43.24%EV -17.28%E -8.08%K -15.16%G +0.000%1.63I 61.35%NM 56.76%EV -0.003%E -0.002%K -0.004%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-18 09:35
Unibet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:50
LiveScore Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:50
Casumo2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:55
Virgin Bet2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:50
Grosvenor2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:50
LeoVegas (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:50
Unibet (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:55
TABtouch2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:50
ATG (SE)2.35I 42.55%NM 40.51%EV -9.17%E -3.90%K -6.79%G +0.000%1.60I 62.50%NM 59.49%EV -1.84%E -1.15%K -3.07%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-18 09:50
NordicBet2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.91%E -3.17%K -8.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-18 09:50
Betway2.50I 40.00%NM 38.27%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.73%EV -4.91%E -3.17%K -8.93%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-18 09:50
Neds2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.30%E -2.16%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.91%E -3.17%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:55
Ladbrokes (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 38.75%EV -5.30%E -2.16%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 61.25%EV -4.91%E -3.17%K -8.93%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-18 09:50
Unibet (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 39.24%EV -7.24%E -3.01%K -5.17%G +0.000%1.55I 64.52%NM 60.76%EV -4.91%E -3.17%K -8.93%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-18 09:55
Ladbrokes (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 09:55
Coral2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 09:55
Sky Bet2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 09:55
Paddy Power2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 09:50
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 09:55
888sport2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 09:55
BoyleSports2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 09:59
betfred_uk2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-18 09:50
betano_uk2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.01%E -3.36%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 09:57
Bet Victor2.38I 42.02%NM 39.13%EV -8.01%E -3.36%K -5.80%G +0.000%1.53I 65.36%NM 60.87%EV -6.14%E -4.01%K -11.58%G +0.000%7.4%2026-07-18 09:59
Betsson2.55I 39.22%NM 37.35%EV -1.44%E -0.564%K -0.927%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.65%EV -6.75%E -4.44%K -12.98%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-18 09:54
TAB2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -3.37%E -1.35%K -2.25%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -6.75%E -4.44%K -12.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-18 09:55
SportsBet2.48I 40.32%NM 38.00%EV -4.14%E -1.67%K -2.80%G +0.000%1.52I 65.79%NM 62.00%EV -6.75%E -4.44%K -12.98%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-18 09:55
Betr (AU)2.45I 40.82%NM 37.97%EV -5.30%E -2.16%K -3.66%G +0.000%1.50I 66.67%NM 62.03%EV -7.98%E -5.32%K -15.96%G +0.000%7.5%2026-07-18 09:58
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Matchbook2.56I 39.06%NM 38.90%1.63I 61.35%NM 61.10%0.4%2026-07-18 09:55
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-07-18 09:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.66I 37.59%NM 37.41%1.59I 62.89%NM 62.59%0.5%2026-07-18 09:55
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.60I 38.46%NM 38.24%1.61I 62.11%NM 61.76%0.6%2026-07-18 09:55
Smarkets2.56I 39.06%NM 38.16%1.58I 63.29%NM 61.84%2.4%2026-07-18 09:55