Language:English
Essex v Surrey
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Essex (Local)
Prediction 37.37%2.68fair odd
EV -2.09%
Edge -0.797%
Kelly -1.29%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.62
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
35.80%37.63%37.47%39.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.362.542.602.6242.37%39.32%38.46%38.17%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Surrey (Visit)
Prediction 62.63%1.60fair odd
EV -1.67%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -2.93%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.57
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
60.05%62.37%62.53%64.20%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.441.501.501.5769.44%66.84%66.67%63.69%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Essex (Local): 37.37%; Surrey (Visit): 62.63%. For Surrey (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.60. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.57, with an expected value of -1.67%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.41%EV -2.09%E -0.797%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.59%EV -6.06%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-30 00:09 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.06%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-30 00:09 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.06%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.06%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -6.06%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-06-30 00:50 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.27%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.73%EV -7.31%E -4.94%K -15.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-30 00:09 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:29 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.12%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 63.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-27 08:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 35.80%EV -2.84%E -1.09%K -1.77%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.20%EV -9.19%E -6.34%K -20.42%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-30 00:09 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.53I 39.53%NM 37.22%EV -5.45%E -2.15%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 62.78%EV -6.06%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.57%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.57%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.57%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.57%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.57%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -6.57%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV -4.18%E -2.73%K -7.88%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.81%EV -6.57%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 62.19%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 36.55%EV -6.57%E -2.63%K -4.38%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 63.45%EV -9.81%E -6.82%K -22.30%G +0.000% | 9.4% | 2026-07-01 17:39 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.49I 40.16%NM 37.12%EV -6.95%E -2.79%K -4.66%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 62.88%EV -7.93%E -5.40%K -16.88%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-01 07:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.44%E -3.45%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.45I 40.82%NM 38.29%EV -8.44%E -3.45%K -5.82%G +0.000% | 1.52I 65.79%NM 61.71%EV -4.80%E -3.16%K -9.24%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.40I 41.67%NM 38.46%EV -10.31%E -4.30%K -7.36%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 61.54%EV -6.06%E -4.04%K -12.11%G +0.000% | 8.3% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.36I 42.37%NM 39.95%EV -11.81%E -5.00%K -8.68%G +0.000% | 1.57I 63.69%NM 60.05%EV -1.67%E -1.06%K -2.93%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.66I 37.59%NM 37.26% | 1.58I 63.29%NM 62.74% | 0.9% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Matchbook◎ | 2.80I 35.71%NM 35.33% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 64.67% | 1.1% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.70I 37.04%NM 36.47% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.53% | 1.6% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.68I 37.31%NM 36.64% | 1.55I 64.52%NM 63.36% | 1.8% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.62I 38.17%NM 36.87% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 63.13% | 3.5% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |