The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Durham v Northamptonshire

Kickoff: 2026-06-06 18:00 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Durham (Local)

Prediction 47.64%2.10fair odd
EV -3.77%
Edge -1.86%
Kelly -3.69%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
45.84%47.56%47.48%52.00%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.931.932.0255.56%51.85%51.81%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Northamptonshire (Visit)

Prediction 52.36%1.91fair odd
EV +2.10%
Edge +1.08%
Kelly +2.21%
Growth +0.047%

assuming max odds 1.95

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
48.00%52.44%52.52%54.16%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.711.861.881.9558.48%53.88%53.19%51.28%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Durham (Local): 47.64%; Northamptonshire (Visit): 52.36%. For Northamptonshire (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.91. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.95, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.10%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
Betr (AU)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.00%EV -14.25%E -7.92%K -17.81%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.00%EV +2.10%E +1.08%K +2.21%G +0.047%6.8%2026-06-06 17:49
Paddy Power🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.007%E +0.004%K +0.008%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-06 17:49
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.007%E +0.004%K +0.008%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-06 17:49
Casumo🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.007%E +0.004%K +0.008%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-06 17:49
TABtouch🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV +0.007%E +0.004%K +0.008%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-06 17:49
LiveScore Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -7.58%E -3.91%K -8.06%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -1.56%E -0.832%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-06 17:49
Virgin Bet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -7.58%E -3.91%K -8.06%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -1.56%E -0.832%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-06 17:49
Unibet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -7.58%E -3.91%K -8.06%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -1.56%E -0.832%K -1.78%G +0.000%4.7%2026-06-06 17:49
LeoVegas🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -8.05%E -4.17%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -1.56%E -0.832%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-06 17:49
Unibet (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -8.05%E -4.17%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -1.56%E -0.832%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-06 17:49
Grosvenor🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -8.05%E -4.17%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -1.56%E -0.832%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-06 17:49
ATG (SE)🎯1.93I 51.81%NM 49.34%EV -8.05%E -4.17%K -8.66%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 50.66%EV -1.56%E -0.832%K -1.78%G +0.000%5.0%2026-06-06 17:49
TAB🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 49.60%EV -9.48%E -4.99%K -10.54%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.40%EV -2.09%E -1.12%K -2.40%G +0.000%6.1%2026-06-06 17:49
SportsBet🎯1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -7.58%E -3.91%K -8.06%G +0.000%1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -2.61%E -1.40%K -3.04%G +0.000%5.3%2026-06-06 17:49
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-06 17:49
Coral🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-06 17:49
Bet Victor🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -9.01%E -4.72%K -9.90%G +0.000%1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -4.18%E -2.28%K -5.04%G +0.000%7.0%2026-06-06 17:48
BoyleSports🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -5.75%E -3.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%5.6%2026-06-06 17:39
Betway🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 48.65%EV -9.48%E -4.99%K -10.54%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 51.35%EV -5.75%E -3.20%K -7.19%G +0.000%8.2%2026-06-06 17:49
Pinnacle🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 47.59%EV -6.63%E -3.38%K -6.90%G +0.000%1.78I 56.18%NM 52.41%EV -6.80%E -3.82%K -8.72%G +0.000%7.2%2026-06-06 17:49
BetOnline.ag🎯2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -4.72%E -2.36%K -4.72%G +0.000%1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -7.32%E -4.14%K -9.51%G +0.000%6.5%2026-06-06 17:49
Marathon Bet🎯2.02I 49.50%NM 45.84%EV -3.77%E -1.86%K -3.69%G +0.000%1.71I 58.48%NM 54.16%EV -10.46%E -6.12%K -14.74%G +0.000%8.0%2026-06-06 17:49
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.99I 50.25%NM 50.13%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.87%0.3%2026-06-06 17:49
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.63%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.37%0.3%2026-06-06 17:49
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.97I 50.76%NM 50.63%2.02I 49.50%NM 49.37%0.3%2026-06-06 17:49
Matchbook◎1.98I 50.51%NM 50.25%2.00I 50.00%NM 49.75%0.5%2026-06-06 17:49
Smarkets◎1.95I 51.28%NM 50.13%1.96I 51.02%NM 49.87%2.3%2026-06-06 17:49