Durham v Derbyshire

2026-07-10 17:30 — T20 Blast

Head to Head

19 sportsbooks (6 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: IQM

Durham (Local)

Prediction 54.78%1.83fair odd

EV -5.23%

Edge -3.03%

Kelly -7.17%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.73

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.23%54.73%54.75%55.26%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

1.701.721.721.73MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

54.23%1.844Min

55.26%1.810Max

54.73%1.827Mean

54.75%1.827Median

54.78%1.826IQM

54.74%1.827Margin-weighted

Derbyshire (Visit)

Prediction 45.22%2.21fair odd

EV -5.03%

Edge -2.40%

Kelly -4.58%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.10

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

44.74%45.27%45.25%45.77%MINMEANMEDIANMAX

Odds’ distribution

2.052.092.102.10MINMEANMEDIANMAX

All estimators

Consensus probabilities

44.74%2.235Min

45.77%2.185Max

45.27%2.209Mean

45.25%2.210Median

45.22%2.211IQM

45.26%2.209Margin-weighted

Sportsbook Odds (19 sportsbooks)

Bookmaker	Durham (Local) ▼	Derbyshire (Visit)	Margin	Updated
Coral	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 21:35
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 21:39
Paddy Power	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 21:38
Sky Bet	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 21:39
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 21:55
888sport	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 23:04
betfred_uk	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 23:09
William Hill	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.83%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.17%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 00:00
Bet Victor	1.73I 57.80% NM 54.23%EV -5.23% E -3.03% K -7.17% G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78% NM 45.77%EV -7.30% E -3.56% K -6.95% G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-08 21:39
SportsBet	1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.78% E -3.36% K -8.03% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-08 21:35
Neds	1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.78% E -3.36% K -8.03% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-08 21:39
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.78% E -3.36% K -8.03% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-08 21:39
Betsson	1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.78% E -3.36% K -8.03% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-08 23:04
NordicBet	1.72I 58.14% NM 54.97%EV -5.78% E -3.36% K -8.03% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 45.03%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-08 23:05
Pinnacle	1.71I 58.48% NM 54.64%EV -6.33% E -3.70% K -8.91% G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54% NM 45.36%EV -6.84% E -3.32% K -6.46% G +0.000%	7.0%	2026-07-08 23:55
Betr (AU)	1.70I 58.82% NM 55.26%EV -6.88% E -4.05% K -9.82% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 44.74%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-08 23:10
TAB	1.70I 58.82% NM 55.26%EV -6.88% E -4.05% K -9.82% G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62% NM 44.74%EV -5.03% E -2.40% K -4.58% G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-08 23:10
Unibet (UK)	1.70I 58.82% NM 55.03%EV -6.88% E -4.05% K -9.82% G +0.000%	2.08I 48.08% NM 44.97%EV -5.94% E -2.86% K -5.50% G +0.000%	6.9%	2026-07-08 21:39
Betway	1.70I 58.82% NM 54.67%EV -6.88% E -4.05% K -9.82% G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78% NM 45.33%EV -7.30% E -3.56% K -6.95% G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-08 21:59

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Exchanges (4)

Bookmaker	Durham (Local)	Derbyshire (Visit)	Margin ▲	Updated
Smarkets	1.70I 58.82% NM 55.26%	2.10I 47.62% NM 44.74%	6.4%	2026-07-09 00:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.32I 75.76% NM 51.47%	1.40I 71.43% NM 48.53%	47.2%	2026-07-09 02:35
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.32I 75.76% NM 51.47%	1.40I 71.43% NM 48.53%	47.2%	2026-07-09 02:35
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.32I 75.76% NM 50.56%	1.35I 74.07% NM 49.44%	49.8%	2026-07-09 02:35