Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Durham v Derbyshire

Kickoff: 2026-07-10 17:30 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

30 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

55%

45%

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Durham (Local)

Prediction 54.96%1.82fair odd

EV -3.82%

Edge -2.18%

Kelly -5.09%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.75

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

54.23%55.30%54.96%56.96%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

1.641.701.701.7560.98%58.77%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Derbyshire (Visit)

Prediction 45.04%2.22fair odd

EV -0.912%

Edge -0.415%

Kelly -0.760%

Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.20

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution

43.04%44.70%45.04%45.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Odds’ distribution

2.052.122.102.2048.78%47.26%47.62%45.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Sportsbook Odds (30 sportsbooks)

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Bookmaker	Local ▼	Visit	Margin	Updated
Betsson	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.82%E -2.18%K -5.09%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-10 17:04
NordicBet	1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.82%E -2.18%K -5.09%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	4.8%	2026-07-10 17:04
Coral	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 13:59
Paddy Power	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 13:59
Sky Bet	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 14:00
888sport	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-08 23:04
betfred_uk	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-10 17:04
William Hill	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.4%	2026-07-09 00:00
Bet Victor	1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.67%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000%	6.6%	2026-07-10 17:04
SportsBet	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.47%E -3.18%K -7.60%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-10 14:00
Neds	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.47%E -3.18%K -7.60%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)	1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.47%E -3.18%K -7.60%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	5.8%	2026-07-10 14:00
Unibet (UK)	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.86%K -9.38%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 17:09
Betr (AU)	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.86%K -9.38%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 17:04
TAB	1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.86%K -9.38%G +0.000%	2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 17:09
Betway	1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.86%K -9.38%G +0.000%	2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.67%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000%	7.6%	2026-07-10 13:59
Marathon Bet	1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.67%E -4.56%K -11.28%G +0.000%	2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -7.22%E -3.50%K -6.81%G +0.000%	8.1%	2026-07-10 14:35
BoyleSports	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.912%E -0.415%K -0.760%G +0.000%	5.3%	2026-07-09 10:39
Unibet (SE)	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:39
Virgin Bet	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:39
LeoVegas (SE)	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:39
Grosvenor	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:39
LiveScore Bet	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:39
Casumo	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:39
TABtouch	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:40
Unibet	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:39
ATG (SE)	1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%	2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%	6.4%	2026-07-10 11:39
Pinnacle	1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -9.87%E -6.02%K -15.41%G +0.000%	2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -2.26%E -1.04%K -1.93%G +0.000%	7.1%	2026-07-10 17:25

Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (5)

Bookmaker	Local	Visit	Margin ▲	Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)	1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%	0.5%	2026-07-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)	1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%	0.5%	2026-07-10 17:25
Matchbook	1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%	0.5%	2026-07-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)	1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%	2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%	1.1%	2026-07-10 17:25
Smarkets	1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%	2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%	2.6%	2026-07-10 17:25