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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Durham v Derbyshire

开赛时间： 2026-07-10 17:30 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

30 家博彩公司 (8 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Durham (主队)

预测 54.96%1.82公平赔率
EV -3.82%
优势 -2.18%
Kelly -5.09%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.75

博彩公司预测分布
54.23%55.30%54.96%56.96%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.641.701.701.7560.98%58.77%58.82%57.14%最小值均值中位数最大值

Derbyshire (客队)

预测 45.04%2.22公平赔率
EV -0.912%
优势 -0.415%
Kelly -0.760%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 2.20

博彩公司预测分布
43.04%44.70%45.04%45.77%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.052.122.102.2048.78%47.26%47.62%45.45%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Durham (主队)：54.96%；Derbyshire (客队)：45.04%。 对于“Derbyshire (客队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.22。 当时没有符合条件的博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率：最佳赔率为2.20，期望值为-0.912%，未产生正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (30 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队利润率更新时间
Betsson🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.82%E -2.18%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 17:04
NordicBet🎯1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -3.82%E -2.18%K -5.09%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-10 17:04
Coral🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 13:59
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 13:59
Paddy Power🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 13:59
Sky Bet🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 13:59
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 14:00
888sport🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-08 23:04
betfred_uk🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-10 17:04
William Hill🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-09 00:00
Bet Victor🎯1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -4.92%E -2.84%K -6.74%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.67%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-10 17:04
SportsBet🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.47%E -3.18%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 14:00
Neds🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.47%E -3.18%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 14:00
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.47%E -3.18%K -7.60%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-10 14:00
Unibet (UK)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.86%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:09
Betr (AU)🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.86%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:04
TAB🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.57%E -3.86%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.42%E -2.58%K -4.92%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 17:09
Betway🎯1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.57%E -3.86%K -9.38%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.67%E -3.74%K -7.30%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-10 13:59
Marathon Bet🎯1.68I 59.52%NM 55.08%EV -7.67%E -4.56%K -11.28%G +0.000%2.06I 48.54%NM 44.92%EV -7.22%E -3.50%K -6.81%G +0.000%8.1%2026-07-10 14:35
BoyleSports🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.85%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.20I 45.45%NM 43.15%EV -0.912%E -0.415%K -0.760%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-09 10:39
Unibet (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:39
Virgin Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:39
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:39
Grosvenor🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:39
LiveScore Bet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:39
Casumo🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:39
TABtouch🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:40
Unibet🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:39
ATG (SE)🎯1.67I 59.88%NM 56.28%EV -8.22%E -4.92%K -12.26%G +0.000%2.15I 46.51%NM 43.72%EV -3.16%E -1.47%K -2.75%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-10 11:39
Pinnacle🎯1.64I 60.98%NM 56.96%EV -9.87%E -6.02%K -15.41%G +0.000%2.17I 46.08%NM 43.04%EV -2.26%E -1.04%K -1.93%G +0.000%7.1%2026-07-10 17:25
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-07-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-07-10 17:25
Matchbook◎1.83I 54.64%NM 54.36%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.64%0.5%2026-07-10 17:25
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.81I 55.25%NM 54.64%2.18I 45.87%NM 45.36%1.1%2026-07-10 17:25
Smarkets◎1.79I 55.87%NM 54.45%2.14I 46.73%NM 45.55%2.6%2026-07-10 17:25