Language:English
Derbyshire v Lancashire
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Derbyshire (Local)
Prediction 45.23%2.21fair odd
EV +4.04%
Edge +1.76%
Kelly +3.11%
Growth +0.125%
assuming max odds 2.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
41.33%44.93%45.26%46.05%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.042.102.102.3049.02%47.63%47.62%43.48%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Lancashire (Visit)
Prediction 54.77%1.83fair odd
EV -4.16%
Edge -2.38%
Kelly -5.54%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.95%55.07%54.74%58.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.711.701.7561.73%58.46%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Derbyshire (Local): 45.23%; Lancashire (Visit): 54.77%. For Derbyshire (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.21. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.30, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.04%.
Sportsbook Odds (31 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Hill🎯 | 2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +4.04%E +1.76%K +3.11%G +0.125% | 1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -11.28%E -6.96%K -18.19%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-07-01 17:10 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -0.486%E -0.221%K -0.405%G +0.000% | 1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.64%E -5.84%K -14.82%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| betfred_uk🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.80%E -3.37%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:20 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:20 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:30 |
| Casumo🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:30 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:20 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:20 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-29 16:30 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.91%E -2.84%K -5.48%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.80%E -3.37%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -6.37%E -3.08%K -5.95%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 7.1% | 2026-06-29 18:10 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.54%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-01 17:39 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.80%E -3.37%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.80%E -3.37%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000% | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%EV -7.72%E -3.79%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%EV -7.44%E -4.41%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-07-01 17:40 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (5)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41% | 1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59% | 0.1% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14% | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86% | 0.7% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85% | 3.2% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |
| Smarkets◎ | 2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87% | 1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13% | 4.6% | 2026-07-01 17:50 |