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默认模型四分位数间均值 (精选名单)
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Derbyshire v Lancashire

开赛时间： 2026-07-01 18:00 UTC

收盘赔率 — 按所选模型，根据开赛前最后记录的赔率计算得出的概率和期望值。比赛已经开始，因此这些并非实时数据。 依据所有已完赛结果评估各模型概率预测的可靠性 →

胜负盘

31 家博彩公司 (9 家纳入分析 )

模型估计的各赛果概率：四分位数间均值 (精选名单)

Derbyshire (主队)

预测 45.23%2.21公平赔率
EV +4.04%
优势 +1.76%
Kelly +3.11%
增长率 +0.125%

假设最高赔率为 2.30

博彩公司预测分布
41.33%44.93%45.26%46.05%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
2.042.102.102.3049.02%47.63%47.62%43.48%最小值均值中位数最大值

Lancashire (客队)

预测 54.77%1.83公平赔率
EV -4.16%
优势 -2.38%
Kelly -5.54%
增长率 +0.000%

假设最高赔率为 1.75

博彩公司预测分布
53.95%55.07%54.74%58.67%最小值均值中位数最大值
赔率分布
1.621.711.701.7561.73%58.46%58.82%57.14%最小值均值中位数最大值

按开赛前最后一组赔率，四分位数间均值 (精选名单)对胜负盘的概率估计为：Derbyshire (主队)：45.23%；Lancashire (客队)：54.77%。 对于“Derbyshire (主队)”，该估计对应的公平十进制赔率为2.21。 当时有1家博彩公司提供高于该水平的收盘赔率；最佳赔率为2.30，对应+4.04%的正期望值。

博彩公司赔率 (31 家博彩公司)

我们与任何博彩公司均无关联，也不会从用户在这些公司进行的任何操作中获利。

博彩公司主队 ▼客队利润率更新时间
William Hill🎯2.30I 43.48%NM 41.33%EV +4.04%E +1.76%K +3.11%G +0.125%1.62I 61.73%NM 58.67%EV -11.28%E -6.96%K -18.19%G +0.000%5.2%2026-07-01 17:10
BetOnline.ag🎯2.20I 45.45%NM 42.86%EV -0.486%E -0.221%K -0.405%G +0.000%1.65I 60.61%NM 57.14%EV -9.64%E -5.84%K -14.82%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-01 17:40
888sport🎯2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -2.75%E -1.28%K -2.39%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-01 17:40
NordicBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-01 17:40
Betsson🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.45%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 54.55%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.54%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-01 17:40
Coral🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
Ladbrokes (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
Sky Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
Paddy Power🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
Betfair Sportsbook (UK)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
betfred_uk🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
BoyleSports🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%5.4%2026-07-01 17:40
SportsBet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -5.80%E -3.37%K -8.06%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-01 17:40
Betr (AU)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-01 17:40
Virgin Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:20
LeoVegas (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:30
TABtouch🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:20
Unibet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:30
Casumo🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:30
LiveScore Bet🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:20
Grosvenor🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:30
Unibet (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:20
ATG (SE)🎯2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -5.01%E -2.39%K -4.55%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%6.4%2026-06-29 16:30
Unibet (UK)🎯2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -5.91%E -2.84%K -5.48%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -5.80%E -3.37%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.2%2026-07-01 17:50
Pinnacle🎯2.07I 48.31%NM 45.09%EV -6.37%E -3.08%K -5.95%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.91%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%7.1%2026-06-29 18:10
TAB🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 46.05%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.75I 57.14%NM 53.95%EV -4.16%E -2.38%K -5.54%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-01 17:50
Bet Victor🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -5.25%E -3.04%K -7.20%G +0.000%6.6%2026-07-01 17:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.80%E -3.37%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-01 17:50
Neds🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.62%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.72I 58.14%NM 54.38%EV -5.80%E -3.37%K -8.06%G +0.000%6.9%2026-07-01 17:50
Betway🎯2.05I 48.78%NM 45.33%EV -7.27%E -3.55%K -6.93%G +0.000%1.70I 58.82%NM 54.67%EV -6.90%E -4.06%K -9.85%G +0.000%7.6%2026-07-01 17:40
Marathon Bet🎯2.04I 49.02%NM 45.31%EV -7.72%E -3.79%K -7.43%G +0.000%1.69I 59.17%NM 54.69%EV -7.44%E -4.41%K -10.79%G +0.000%8.2%2026-07-01 17:40
利润率 = 利润率（超额概率） · I = 隐含概率 · NM = 无利润率概率 · EV = 期望值 · E = 优势 · K = Kelly 准则 · G = 资金增长率

更新时间 指各博彩公司最后一次调整赔率的时间，因此时间较早仅表示赔率一直未变，并不代表数据已经失效。通常，约 15 分钟内未收到更新的博彩公司会被移除；只有整个市场的数据源均无更新时，才会改为显示最后记录的赔率。

博彩交易所 (5)

博彩公司主队客队利润率 ▲更新时间
Matchbook◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.41%1.83I 54.64%NM 54.59%0.1%2026-07-01 17:50
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎2.20I 45.45%NM 45.14%1.81I 55.25%NM 54.86%0.7%2026-07-01 17:50
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎2.10I 47.62%NM 46.15%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.85%3.2%2026-07-01 17:50
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%4.6%2026-07-01 17:50
Smarkets◎2.04I 49.02%NM 46.87%1.80I 55.56%NM 53.13%4.6%2026-07-01 17:50