Language:English
Ireland v Afghanistan
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Ireland (Local)
Prediction 33.90%2.95fair odd
EV +3.41%
Edge +1.12%
Kelly +1.66%
Growth +0.057%
assuming max odds 3.05
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
31.15%33.87%34.27%37.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.502.892.973.0540.00%34.57%33.67%32.79%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Afghanistan (Visit)
Prediction 66.10%1.51fair odd
EV +1.13%
Edge +0.736%
Kelly +2.12%
Growth +0.024%
assuming max odds 1.53
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
62.03%66.13%65.73%68.85%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.361.411.391.5373.53%71.10%71.94%65.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Ireland (Local): 33.90%; Afghanistan (Visit): 66.10%. For Ireland (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.95. 14 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.05, corresponding to a positive expected value of +3.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 31.15%EV +3.41%E +1.12%K +1.66%G +0.057% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.85%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Sky Bet🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.82%EV +1.71%E +0.572%K +0.857%G +0.015% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 68.18%EV -7.47%E -5.33%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.66%EV +1.71%E +0.572%K +0.857%G +0.015% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 68.34%EV -8.13%E -5.85%K -20.84%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.51%EV +1.71%E +0.572%K +0.857%G +0.015% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 68.49%EV -8.79%E -6.37%K -23.13%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +1.71%E +0.572%K +0.857%G +0.015% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-10 09:39 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV +1.71%E +0.572%K +0.857%G +0.015% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.09%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.94I 34.01%NM 32.10%EV -0.319%E -0.109%K -0.165%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 67.90%EV -8.13%E -5.85%K -20.84%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.87%EV -1.68%E -0.578%K -0.882%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.13%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-10 09:38 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -2.35%E -0.817%K -1.25%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -7.47%E -5.33%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-10 09:39 |
| Ladbrokes (UK)🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -2.69%E -0.938%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.47%E -5.33%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Coral🎯 | 2.87I 34.84%NM 32.79%EV -2.69%E -0.938%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.21%EV -7.47%E -5.33%K -18.67%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -5.07%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -3.50%E -2.40%K -7.61%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.07%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -5.07%E -1.81%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.15%E -4.33%K -14.63%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 33.09%EV -6.76%E -2.46%K -3.86%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 66.91%EV -10.11%E -7.43%K -28.09%G +0.000% | 9.9% | 2026-08-10 09:38 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -8.46%E -3.13%K -4.97%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-10 09:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.43%EV -11.85%E -4.56%K -7.40%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 63.57%EV -1.52%E -1.02%K -3.10%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.58I 38.76%NM 36.45%EV -12.53%E -4.85%K -7.93%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 63.55%EV -2.18%E -1.47%K -4.54%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Marathon Bet🎯 | 2.55I 39.22%NM 36.25%EV -13.54%E -5.31%K -8.74%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 63.75%EV -4.16%E -2.87%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-08-10 09:35 |
| William Hill🎯 | 2.50I 40.00%NM 37.97%EV -15.24%E -6.10%K -10.16%G +0.000% | 1.53I 65.36%NM 62.03%EV +1.13%E +0.736%K +2.12%G +0.024% | 5.4% | 2026-08-08 00:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (3)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.30I 30.30%NM 30.23% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 69.77% | 0.2% | 2026-08-10 09:40 |