The School of Odds
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Ireland v Afghanistan

2026-08-05 09:45 UTC — One Day Internationals

Head to Head

7 sportsbooks (1 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Ireland (Local)

Prediction 34.83%2.87fair odd
EV -1.79%
Edge -0.635%
Kelly -0.984%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.82

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
33.33%34.83%34.83%34.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.622.712.702.8238.17%36.92%37.04%35.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Afghanistan (Visit)

Prediction 65.17%1.53fair odd
EV -5.50%
Edge -3.79%
Kelly -12.22%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.45

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
65.06%65.17%65.17%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.431.441.4571.43%70.07%69.44%68.97%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Ireland (Local): 34.83%; Afghanistan (Visit): 65.17%. For Ireland (Local), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.87. No eligible bookmaker offers odds above that level: the best available odds are 2.82, with an expected value of -1.79%; they do not produce positive expected value.

Sportsbook Odds (7 sportsbooks)

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BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
SportsBet2.82I 35.46%NM 33.33%EV -1.79%E -0.635%K -0.984%G +0.000%1.41I 70.92%NM 66.67%EV -8.10%E -5.75%K -19.77%G +0.000%6.4%2026-07-31 21:25
Sky Bet2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.23%E -1.54%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.15%E -4.27%K -13.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 21:25
Paddy Power2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -4.23%E -1.54%K -2.42%G +0.000%1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -6.15%E -4.27%K -13.98%G +0.000%5.8%2026-07-31 21:24
Neds2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.97%E -2.21%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.50%E -3.79%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-31 21:24
Ladbrokes (AU)2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -5.97%E -2.21%K -3.51%G +0.000%1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -5.50%E -3.79%K -12.22%G +0.000%6.0%2026-07-31 21:25
betano_uk2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -8.76%E -3.34%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -8.76%E -6.25%K -21.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-31 21:23
Bet Victor2.62I 38.17%NM 34.83%EV -8.76%E -3.34%K -5.41%G +0.000%1.40I 71.43%NM 65.17%EV -8.76%E -6.25%K -21.89%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-31 21:25
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%10.6%2026-07-31 23:44
Betfair Exchange (EU)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%10.6%2026-07-31 23:45
Betfair Exchange (UK)2.40I 41.67%NM 37.66%1.45I 68.97%NM 62.34%10.6%2026-07-31 23:44