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Zimbabwe v South Africa
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Zimbabwe (Local)
Prediction 27.41%3.65fair odd
EV +15.12%
Edge +3.60%
Kelly +4.72%
Growth +0.714%
assuming max odds 4.20
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
22.51%26.97%27.67%29.55%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.423.404.2032.26%29.24%29.41%23.81%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
South Africa (Visit)
Prediction 72.59%1.38fair odd
EV -3.45%
Edge -2.60%
Kelly -10.47%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.33
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
70.45%73.03%72.33%77.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.311.321.3381.97%76.48%75.76%75.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Zimbabwe (Local): 27.41%; South Africa (Visit): 72.59%. For Zimbabwe (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.65. 2 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.20, corresponding to a positive expected value of +15.12%.
Sportsbook Odds (29 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BoyleSports🎯 | 4.20I 23.81%NM 22.51%EV +15.12%E +3.60%K +4.72%G +0.714% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 77.49%EV -11.44%E -9.38%K -52.00%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-09-01 11:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.74I 26.74%NM 25.50%EV +2.51%E +0.671%K +0.916%G +0.023% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.50%EV -7.08%E -5.53%K -25.30%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.63I 27.55%NM 26.52%EV -0.505%E -0.139%K -0.192%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 73.48%EV -4.91%E -3.74%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-09-01 10:39 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -4.07%E -1.16%K -1.63%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.92%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-09-01 09:45 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.44%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 11:54 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV -5.44%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.52%EV -5.44%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.48%EV -4.91%E -3.74%K -15.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -5.44%E -1.58%K -2.22%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -5.63%E -4.33%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| PlayUp🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -3.45%E -2.60%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| Virgin Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| Casumo🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| LiveScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| PointsBet (AU)🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.63%E -4.33%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -6.81%E -2.00%K -2.84%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -5.63%E -4.33%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| Grosvenor🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -4.18%E -3.17%K -13.06%G +0.000% | 5.6% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.63%E -4.33%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -8.18%E -2.44%K -3.48%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -5.63%E -4.33%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-09-01 11:54 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.92%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-01 11:53 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 28.10%EV -9.55%E -2.89%K -4.15%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 71.90%EV -6.36%E -4.93%K -21.92%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-09-01 11:54 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -10.92%E -3.36%K -4.85%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -3.45%E -2.60%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.45%E -2.60%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -12.29%E -3.84%K -5.59%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -3.45%E -2.60%K -10.47%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 29.55%EV -15.03%E -4.85%K -7.16%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 70.45%EV -5.63%E -4.33%K -18.77%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-09-01 11:54 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (4)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matchbook◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.61% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.39% | 0.2% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12% | 0.6% | 2026-09-01 11:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.75I 26.67%NM 26.47% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 73.53% | 0.7% | 2026-09-01 11:55 |