The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

South Africa v Zimbabwe

Kickoff: 2026-08-29 11:58 UTC

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

28 sportsbooks (8 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

South Africa (Local)

Prediction 71.90%1.39fair odd
EV -3.66%
Edge -2.73%
Kelly -10.76%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.34

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
69.98%71.97%71.88%73.77%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.311.301.3478.13%76.34%76.92%74.63%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Zimbabwe (Visit)

Prediction 28.10%3.56fair odd
EV +1.18%
Edge +0.327%
Kelly +0.452%
Growth +0.005%

assuming max odds 3.60

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
26.23%28.03%28.12%30.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.103.383.403.6032.26%29.55%29.41%27.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: South Africa (Local): 71.90%; Zimbabwe (Visit): 28.10%. For Zimbabwe (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.56. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.60, corresponding to a positive expected value of +1.18%.

Sportsbook Odds (28 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
SportsBet🎯1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -7.97%E -6.23%K -28.48%G +0.000%3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV +1.18%E +0.327%K +0.452%G +0.005%5.9%2026-08-29 11:55
BoyleSports🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.92%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 27.08%EV -1.63%E -0.467%K -0.654%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 11:44
FanDuel🎯1.29I 77.52%NM 73.07%EV -7.25%E -5.62%K -25.02%G +0.000%3.50I 28.57%NM 26.93%EV -1.63%E -0.467%K -0.654%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 11:44
Pinnacle🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.38%EV -5.10%E -3.86%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.46I 28.90%NM 27.62%EV -2.76%E -0.797%K -1.12%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-29 10:40
Unibet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.04%E -0.881%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:55
LiveScore Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.04%E -0.881%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:55
Grosvenor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.04%E -0.881%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:56
Casumo🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.04%E -0.881%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:55
Virgin Bet🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.04%E -0.881%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:55
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.04%E -0.881%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:55
Unibet (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.04%E -0.881%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:55
ATG (SE)🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.63%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.45I 28.99%NM 27.37%EV -3.04%E -0.881%K -1.24%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-29 11:55
PlayUp🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -4.38%E -3.29%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -4.44%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%4.6%2026-08-29 11:55
PointsBet (AU)🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.10%E -3.86%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.44%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 11:55
Bet Right🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -5.10%E -3.86%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -4.44%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%5.2%2026-08-29 11:55
Paddy Power🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.34%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.40I 29.41%NM 27.66%EV -4.44%E -1.31%K -1.85%G +0.000%6.3%2026-08-29 11:55
GTbets🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.22%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.38I 29.59%NM 27.78%EV -5.01%E -1.48%K -2.10%G +0.000%6.5%2026-08-29 11:36
DraftKings🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.73%EV -5.10%E -3.86%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.27%EV -5.85%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%5.6%2026-08-29 11:35
Betr (AU)🎯1.31I 76.34%NM 71.89%EV -5.82%E -4.44%K -18.76%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 28.11%EV -5.85%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.2%2026-08-29 11:55
TABtouch🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 72.04%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.35I 29.85%NM 27.96%EV -5.85%E -1.75%K -2.49%G +0.000%6.8%2026-08-29 11:55
NordicBet🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.66%E -2.73%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 11:56
Betsson🎯1.34I 74.63%NM 71.12%EV -3.66%E -2.73%K -10.76%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.88%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.15%G +0.000%4.9%2026-08-29 11:55
Neds🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.38%E -3.29%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 11:55
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 71.27%EV -4.38%E -3.29%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.73%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.15%G +0.000%5.5%2026-08-29 11:55
TAB🎯1.32I 75.76%NM 71.43%EV -5.10%E -3.86%K -15.93%G +0.000%3.30I 30.30%NM 28.57%EV -7.26%E -2.20%K -3.15%G +0.000%6.1%2026-08-29 11:55
Betway🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.43%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.25I 30.77%NM 28.57%EV -8.66%E -2.66%K -3.85%G +0.000%7.7%2026-08-29 11:54
Bet Victor🎯1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -6.54%E -5.03%K -21.79%G +0.000%3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -10.07%E -3.15%K -4.58%G +0.000%8.2%2026-08-29 11:53
betano_uk🎯1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -4.38%E -3.29%K -13.27%G +0.000%3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -12.88%E -4.15%K -6.13%G +0.000%7.4%2026-08-29 11:54
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (4)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.38I 72.46%NM 72.29%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.71%0.2%2026-08-29 11:56
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-08-29 11:55
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.36I 73.53%NM 73.12%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.88%0.6%2026-08-29 11:55
Matchbook◎1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57%0.8%2026-08-29 11:55