Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Mystics v Phoenix Mercury

2026-08-09 19:00 UTC — WNBA

Head to Head

22 sportsbooks (10 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Washington Mystics (Local)

Prediction 50.42%1.98fair odd
EV -3.71%
Edge -1.94%
Kelly -4.07%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 1.91

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.32%50.50%50.20%52.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.871.871.9155.56%53.39%53.48%52.36%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Phoenix Mercury (Visit)

Prediction 49.58%2.02fair odd
EV +0.162%
Edge +0.080%
Kelly +0.159%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.02

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
47.53%49.50%49.80%50.68%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.801.921.912.0255.56%52.10%52.36%49.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

For Head to Head, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimates these probabilities: Washington Mystics (Local): 50.42%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 49.58%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate is equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.017. 1 bookmaker offers odds above that level; the best available odds are 2.020, producing a positive expected value of +0.162%.

Sportsbook Odds (22 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocalVisit ▼MarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.47%EV -7.74%E -4.23%K -9.33%G +0.000%2.02I 49.50%NM 47.53%EV +0.162%E +0.080%K +0.159%G +0.000%4.1%2026-08-08 03:20
FanDuel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.44%EV -6.73%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.56%EV -2.81%E -1.44%K -2.93%G +0.000%5.1%2026-08-08 03:05
theScore Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.72%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.31%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 03:35
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.72%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.31%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 05:34
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -5.72%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -3.31%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000%4.8%2026-08-08 05:40
SportsBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -6.73%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -3.31%E -1.70%K -3.48%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 04:30
Betr (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -5.72%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 03:40
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -6.23%E -3.35%K -7.24%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -3.81%E -1.96%K -4.05%G +0.000%5.3%2026-08-08 03:40
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -6.73%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -4.30%E -2.23%K -4.62%G +0.000%5.9%2026-08-08 03:40
Fanatics🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.71%E -1.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 04:15
888sport🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.71%E -1.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 03:35
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.71%E -1.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 03:35
888sport (SE)🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.71%E -1.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 03:35
DraftKings🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.71%E -1.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 03:35
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -3.71%E -1.94%K -4.07%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%4.7%2026-08-08 03:50
Unibet (UK)🎯1.90I 52.63%NM 50.13%EV -4.21%E -2.22%K -4.68%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 49.87%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%5.0%2026-08-08 03:35
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -9.25%E -5.14%K -11.57%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -5.29%E -2.77%K -5.82%G +0.000%7.9%2026-08-08 04:35
Betsson🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -5.79%E -3.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 03:35
NordicBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.26%EV -5.22%E -2.78%K -5.93%G +0.000%1.90I 52.63%NM 49.74%EV -5.79%E -3.05%K -6.43%G +0.000%5.8%2026-08-08 03:35
ReBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.53%EV -6.73%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.89I 52.91%NM 49.47%EV -6.28%E -3.33%K -7.06%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 03:35
BoyleSports🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -5.72%E -3.06%K -6.58%G +0.000%1.87I 53.48%NM 50.00%EV -7.28%E -3.89%K -8.36%G +0.000%7.0%2026-08-08 03:35
LeoVegas🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -6.73%E -3.64%K -7.92%G +0.000%1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -10.75%E -5.97%K -13.43%G +0.000%9.6%2026-08-08 03:35
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (3)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Kalshi1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-08-08 07:30
Polymarket1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-08-08 07:30
Novig1.74I 57.47%NM 52.97%1.96I 51.02%NM 47.03%8.5%2026-08-08 07:35