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Seattle Storm v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Seattle Storm (Local)
Prediction 29.26%3.42fair odd
EV +0.964%
Edge +0.279%
Kelly +0.393%
Growth +0.004%
assuming max odds 3.45
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.67%29.36%29.19%32.56%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.263.253.4534.48%30.64%30.77%28.99%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 70.74%1.41fair odd
EV -0.971%
Edge -0.693%
Kelly -2.43%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.40
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
67.44%70.64%70.81%72.33%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.241.341.341.4080.65%74.43%74.63%71.43%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Seattle Storm (Local): 29.26%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 70.74%. For Seattle Storm (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.42. 9 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.45, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.964%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:39 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:39 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.67%EV +0.964%E +0.279%K +0.393%G +0.004% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.33%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV -0.500%E -0.147%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -5.21%E -3.89%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.12%EV -0.500%E -0.147%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 71.88%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-04 01:39 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.500%E -0.147%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.97%EV -0.500%E -0.147%K -0.208%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 72.03%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.03%EV -1.96%E -0.586%K -0.835%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.97%EV -3.09%E -2.26%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 2.8% | 2026-06-04 01:49 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.32I 30.12%NM 28.76%EV -2.84%E -0.856%K -1.22%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.24%EV -5.21%E -3.89%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.18%EV -3.43%E -1.04%K -1.49%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.82%EV -3.80%E -2.79%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-04 01:50 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.26I 30.67%NM 29.13%EV -4.60%E -1.41%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.87%EV -5.21%E -3.89%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-04 01:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.80%E -2.79%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-03 20:44 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.80%E -2.79%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -3.80%E -2.79%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-04 01:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.19%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.81%EV -5.21%E -3.89%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-04 01:29 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 28.88%EV -4.89%E -1.50%K -2.17%G +0.000% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 71.12%EV -6.63%E -5.02%K -20.72%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.22I 31.06%NM 29.69%EV -5.77%E -1.79%K -2.60%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.31%EV -3.80%E -2.79%K -10.56%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-06-04 01:13 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 30.13%EV -6.35%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.87%EV -2.39%E -1.73%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-06-03 20:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -6.35%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.09%E -2.26%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-03 20:36 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.98%EV -6.35%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.02%EV -3.09%E -2.26%K -8.36%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-03 20:39 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.52%EV -6.35%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.48%EV -5.21%E -3.89%K -15.34%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-04 01:49 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -6.35%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-04 01:29 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.36%EV -6.35%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.64%EV -5.92%E -4.45%K -17.95%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-06-04 01:30 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 28.89%EV -6.35%E -1.99%K -2.89%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 71.11%EV -8.04%E -6.19%K -26.81%G +0.000% | 8.2% | 2026-06-04 01:49 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -6.65%E -2.08%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -2.39%E -1.73%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 20:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 30.20%EV -6.65%E -2.08%K -3.03%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.80%EV -2.39%E -1.73%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-06-03 20:29 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -7.82%E -2.48%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -2.39%E -1.73%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-04 01:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 28.25%EV -7.82%E -2.48%K -3.64%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 71.75%EV -12.29%E -9.91%K -51.20%G +0.000% | 12.4% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -9.28%E -2.99%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.39%E -1.73%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -9.28%E -2.99%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -2.39%E -1.73%K -6.28%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-03 18:20 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -15.13%E -5.22%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -0.971%E -0.693%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-03 17:50 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -15.13%E -5.22%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -0.971%E -0.693%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-03 17:49 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -15.13%E -5.22%K -7.96%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -0.971%E -0.693%K -2.43%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-06-03 17:49 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-06-04 01:50 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.40I 29.41%NM 29.31% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.69% | 0.3% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Novig◎ | 3.42I 29.24%NM 29.05% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 70.95% | 0.7% | 2026-06-04 01:50 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.35I 29.85%NM 29.62% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.38% | 0.8% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Polymarket◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.75% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 70.25% | 1.0% | 2026-06-04 01:40 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.23I 30.96%NM 30.39% | 1.41I 70.92%NM 69.61% | 1.9% | 2026-06-04 01:30 |