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Phoenix Mercury v Las Vegas Aces
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 29.83%3.35fair odd
EV +4.41%
Edge +1.26%
Kelly +1.76%
Growth +0.078%
assuming max odds 3.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
27.22%29.74%29.82%31.19%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.903.173.153.5034.48%31.58%31.75%28.57%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Las Vegas Aces (Visit)
Prediction 70.17%1.43fair odd
EV -2.46%
Edge -1.77%
Kelly -6.32%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.39
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
68.81%70.26%70.18%72.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.281.351.361.3978.13%73.87%73.53%71.94%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 29.83%; Las Vegas Aces (Visit): 70.17%. For Phoenix Mercury (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.35. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 3.50, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.41%.
Sportsbook Odds (43 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caesars🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 27.23%EV +4.41%E +1.26%K +1.76%G +0.078% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 72.77%EV -8.08%E -6.17%K -26.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.45I 28.99%NM 27.22%EV +2.92%E +0.845%K +1.19%G +0.035% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 72.78%EV -9.48%E -7.35%K -32.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 28.27%EV +1.42%E +0.419%K +0.593%G +0.008% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.73%EV -5.97%E -4.46%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-18 02:01 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV +0.529%E +0.157%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -5.97%E -4.46%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-18 02:04 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.37I 29.67%NM 28.45%EV +0.529%E +0.157%K +0.223%G +0.001% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 71.55%EV -5.97%E -4.46%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-18 02:05 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 3.30I 30.30%NM 29.34%EV -1.56%E -0.472%K -0.678%G +0.000% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.66%EV -3.87%E -2.82%K -10.45%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-06-18 02:02 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.05%E -0.939%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-18 02:09 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.05%E -0.939%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.50%EV -3.05%E -0.939%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.50%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.25I 30.77%NM 29.04%EV -3.05%E -0.939%K -1.36%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 70.96%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.54%E -1.42%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.20I 31.25%NM 29.82%EV -4.54%E -1.42%K -2.06%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 70.18%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-06-18 02:09 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.19I 31.35%NM 29.58%EV -4.84%E -1.52%K -2.21%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.42%EV -5.97%E -4.46%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.18I 31.45%NM 29.65%EV -5.14%E -1.62%K -2.36%G +0.000% | 1.34I 74.63%NM 70.35%EV -5.97%E -4.46%K -17.57%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.17%E -2.29%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-18 02:09 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.46%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.54%EV -3.17%E -2.29%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-06-18 01:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.16%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.84%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.15I 31.75%NM 30.00%EV -6.03%E -1.92%K -2.81%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 70.00%EV -5.27%E -3.90%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 3.12I 32.05%NM 30.82%EV -6.93%E -2.22%K -3.27%G +0.000% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 69.18%EV -2.46%E -1.77%K -6.32%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-06-18 02:01 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.17%E -2.29%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.17%E -2.29%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.80%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 69.20%EV -3.17%E -2.29%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-06-18 01:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 01:59 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 02:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 01:59 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.49%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.51%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-06-18 01:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.34%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.35I 74.07%NM 69.66%EV -5.27%E -3.90%K -15.06%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-18 02:09 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.10I 32.26%NM 30.02%EV -7.53%E -2.43%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.98%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 7.4% | 2026-06-18 02:09 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -9.02%E -2.96%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-18 01:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.05I 32.79%NM 30.84%EV -9.02%E -2.96%K -4.40%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 69.16%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-06-18 01:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 31.19%EV -10.51%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 68.81%EV -4.57%E -3.36%K -12.69%G +0.000% | 6.9% | 2026-06-18 01:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.00I 33.33%NM 30.72%EV -10.51%E -3.50%K -5.25%G +0.000% | 1.33I 75.19%NM 69.28%EV -6.67%E -5.02%K -20.23%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 30.62%EV -13.49%E -4.65%K -7.10%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 69.38%EV -10.18%E -7.96%K -36.37%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 3.55I 28.17%NM 27.99% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 72.01% | 0.6% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 3.60I 27.78%NM 27.57% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 72.43% | 0.8% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Polymarket◎ | 3.45I 28.99%NM 28.72% | 1.39I 71.94%NM 71.28% | 0.9% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 3.50I 28.57%NM 28.28% | 1.38I 72.46%NM 71.72% | 1.0% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.85% | 3.0% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| Novig◎ | 3.33I 30.03%NM 29.15% | 1.37I 72.99%NM 70.85% | 3.0% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.56I 39.06%NM 34.69% | 1.36I 73.53%NM 65.31% | 12.6% | 2026-06-18 02:10 |