Language:English
Phoenix Mercury v Atlanta Dream
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Phoenix Mercury (Local)
Prediction 25.08%3.99fair odd
EV +2.84%
Edge +0.693%
Kelly +0.917%
Growth +0.026%
assuming max odds 4.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
23.65%24.88%25.22%27.04%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
3.403.773.754.1029.41%26.55%26.67%24.39%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Atlanta Dream (Visit)
Prediction 74.92%1.33fair odd
EV -2.61%
Edge -2.01%
Kelly -8.69%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.30
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
72.96%75.12%74.78%76.35%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.221.271.281.3081.97%78.63%78.13%76.92%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Phoenix Mercury (Local): 25.08%; Atlanta Dream (Visit): 74.92%. For Phoenix Mercury (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 3.99. 5 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 4.10, corresponding to a positive expected value of +2.84%.
Sportsbook Odds (47 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| betano_uk🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV +2.84%E +0.693%K +0.917%G +0.026% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-23 01:50 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 4.10I 24.39%NM 23.65%EV +2.84%E +0.693%K +0.917%G +0.026% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 76.35%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-23 01:49 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 4.05I 24.69%NM 23.73%EV +1.59%E +0.392%K +0.521%G +0.008% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 76.27%EV -5.61%E -4.45%K -21.56%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-23 01:50 |
| 888sport🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.333%E +0.083%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 4.00I 25.00%NM 23.81%EV +0.333%E +0.083%K +0.111%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 76.19%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV -0.670%E -0.169%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-23 01:54 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 3.96I 25.25%NM 24.28%EV -0.670%E -0.169%K -0.226%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.72%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-23 01:55 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.71%EV -2.17%E -0.558%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.29%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-23 01:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.56%EV -2.17%E -0.558%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 75.44%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-23 01:54 |
| Fliff🎯 | 3.90I 25.64%NM 24.12%EV -2.17%E -0.558%K -0.750%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.88%EV -7.10%E -5.73%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 6.3% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -3.43%E -0.891%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-23 00:44 |
| GTbets🎯 | 3.85I 25.97%NM 24.95%EV -3.43%E -0.891%K -1.20%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 75.05%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-08-23 01:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.36%E -2.60%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-23 01:58 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.34%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.66%EV -3.36%E -2.60%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-23 00:19 |
| Bovada🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.20%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.80%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-23 01:49 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 3.80I 26.32%NM 25.05%EV -4.68%E -1.23%K -1.67%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.95%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-23 01:49 |
| Caesars🎯 | 3.78I 26.46%NM 25.30%EV -5.18%E -1.37%K -1.87%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.70%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-23 00:28 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.60%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 74.40%EV -3.36%E -2.60%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-23 00:44 |
| ReBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 01:34 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| betPARX🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.45%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.55%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-23 01:38 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.30%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.27I 78.74%NM 74.70%EV -4.86%E -3.82%K -17.98%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.61%E -4.45%K -21.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 01:15 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.15%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.85%EV -5.61%E -4.45%K -21.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-23 01:54 |
| Betway🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 25.00%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 75.00%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 6.7% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 3.75I 26.67%NM 24.85%EV -5.94%E -1.58%K -2.16%G +0.000% | 1.24I 80.65%NM 75.15%EV -7.10%E -5.73%K -29.60%G +0.000% | 7.3% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.70%EV -7.19%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 74.30%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-08-23 00:59 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.19%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.61%E -4.45%K -21.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 00:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 3.70I 27.03%NM 25.40%EV -7.19%E -1.94%K -2.66%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 74.60%EV -5.61%E -4.45%K -21.56%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-08-23 00:59 |
| Unibet🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -8.45%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.36%E -2.60%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 3.65I 27.40%NM 26.11%EV -8.45%E -2.31%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.89%EV -3.36%E -2.60%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -9.70%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -2.61%E -2.01%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-23 00:19 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.53%EV -9.70%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 73.47%EV -2.61%E -2.01%K -8.69%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-23 00:20 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -9.70%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.36%E -2.60%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 00:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.38%EV -9.70%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.29I 77.52%NM 73.62%EV -3.36%E -2.60%K -11.58%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-23 00:44 |
| TAB🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 26.23%EV -9.70%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.28I 78.13%NM 73.77%EV -4.11%E -3.21%K -14.67%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-23 00:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 3.60I 27.78%NM 25.77%EV -9.70%E -2.69%K -3.73%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 74.23%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 7.8% | 2026-08-23 01:34 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 3.55I 28.17%NM 25.58%EV -10.95%E -3.09%K -4.30%G +0.000% | 1.22I 81.97%NM 74.42%EV -8.60%E -7.05%K -39.10%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-23 01:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 3.50I 28.57%NM 26.32%EV -12.21%E -3.49%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 1.25I 80.00%NM 73.68%EV -6.35%E -5.08%K -25.42%G +0.000% | 8.6% | 2026-08-23 00:25 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 3.40I 29.41%NM 27.04%EV -14.72%E -4.33%K -6.13%G +0.000% | 1.26I 79.37%NM 72.96%EV -5.61%E -4.45%K -21.56%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-08-23 01:44 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 00:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.81% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 75.19% | 0.8% | 2026-08-23 01:55 |
| ProphetX◎ | 3.95I 25.32%NM 25.05% | 1.32I 75.76%NM 74.95% | 1.1% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 1.3% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 1.3% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.67% | 1.31I 76.34%NM 75.33% | 1.3% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |
| Novig◎ | 4.00I 25.00%NM 24.53% | 1.30I 76.92%NM 75.47% | 1.9% | 2026-08-23 02:00 |