La escuela de los momios

New York Liberty v Portland Fire

Inicio: 2026-05-26 00:15 UTC

Final: New York Liberty 74–81 Portland Fire

Momios de cierre — las predicciones y el valor esperado calculados con los últimos momios registrados antes del inicio, según el modelo seleccionado. El partido ya comenzó; estas cifras no son datos en vivo. Evalúe la fiabilidad de las predicciones probabilísticas de cada modelo frente a los resultados de todos los partidos resueltos →

Resultado del partido

45 corredores (16 en el análisis )

Probabilidad estimada de cada resultado, según el modelo: IQM

New York Liberty (Local)

Predicción 79.68%1.26momio equitativo
EV -2.80%
Ventaja -2.29%
Kelly -12.71%
Crecimiento +0.000%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 1.22

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
76.92%79.84%79.55%82.03%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
1.131.191.191.2288.50%83.96%84.03%81.97%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Portland Fire (Visitante)

Predicción 20.32%4.92momio equitativo
EV +6.70%
Ventaja +1.28%
Kelly +1.58%
Crecimiento +0.106%

suponiendo unos momios máximos de 5.25

Distribución de las predicciones de los corredores
17.97%20.16%20.45%23.08%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX
Distribución de los momios
4.004.684.705.2525.00%21.35%21.28%19.05%MÍNMEDIAMEDIANAMÁX

Momios de las casas de apuestas (45 corredores)

No estamos afiliados a ninguna casa de apuestas ni obtenemos beneficio alguno de las operaciones realizadas con ellas.

CorredorLocalVisitante ▼MargenActualizado
Bet Victor1.18I 84.75%NM 81.65%EV -5.98%E -5.07%K -33.24%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 18.35%EV +6.70%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.106%3.8%2026-05-26 00:10
theScore Bet1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -8.37%E -7.28%K -55.82%G +0.000%5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV +6.70%E +1.28%K +1.58%G +0.106%6.0%2026-05-26 00:10
BetMGM1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -5.98%E -5.07%K -33.24%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV +1.62%E +0.325%K +0.406%G +0.007%4.7%2026-05-26 00:09
Unibet (UK)1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.78%E -5.79%K -39.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.62%E +0.325%K +0.406%G +0.007%5.5%2026-05-26 00:10
Betway1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.78%E -5.79%K -39.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.62%E +0.325%K +0.406%G +0.007%5.5%2026-05-26 00:10
Hard Rock Bet1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -6.78%E -5.79%K -39.88%G +0.000%5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV +1.62%E +0.325%K +0.406%G +0.007%5.5%2026-05-26 00:10
GTbets1.16I 86.21%NM 81.14%EV -7.58%E -6.53%K -47.35%G +0.000%4.99I 20.04%NM 18.86%EV +1.42%E +0.284%K +0.356%G +0.005%6.2%2026-05-26 00:10
MyBookie.ag1.18I 84.75%NM 80.43%EV -5.98%E -5.07%K -33.24%G +0.000%4.85I 20.62%NM 19.57%EV -1.43%E -0.294%K -0.370%G +0.000%5.4%2026-05-26 00:09
Neds1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:10
Ladbrokes (AU)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:09
Unibet (NL)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:10
Unibet1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:10
TABtouch1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:10
LeoVegas1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:09
LeoVegas (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:10
Unibet (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:09
betPARX1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:09
Bally Bet1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:10
ATG (SE)1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:10
Svenska Spel1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -2.44%E -0.509%K -0.643%G +0.000%4.9%2026-05-26 00:09
Pinnacle1.21I 82.64%NM 79.66%EV -3.59%E -2.97%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.74I 21.10%NM 20.34%EV -3.66%E -0.772%K -0.979%G +0.000%3.7%2026-05-26 00:05
BetUS1.21I 82.64%NM 79.53%EV -3.59%E -2.97%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.47%EV -4.47%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%3.9%2026-05-26 00:03
Fanatics1.20I 83.33%NM 79.66%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.70I 21.28%NM 20.34%EV -4.47%E -0.952%K -1.21%G +0.000%4.6%2026-05-26 00:09
BetOnline.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 79.42%EV -3.59%E -2.97%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.58%EV -5.08%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-26 00:01
LowVig.ag1.21I 82.64%NM 79.42%EV -3.59%E -2.97%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.67I 21.41%NM 20.58%EV -5.08%E -1.09%K -1.39%G +0.000%4.1%2026-05-26 00:01
DraftKings1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -3.59%E -2.97%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -6.51%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-26 00:10
Caesars1.21I 82.64%NM 79.17%EV -3.59%E -2.97%K -17.11%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.83%EV -6.51%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%4.4%2026-05-26 00:10
Betr (AU)1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.51%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-26 00:00
Bet Right1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.51%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-26 00:09
Bovada1.20I 83.33%NM 79.31%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.69%EV -6.51%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.1%2026-05-26 00:07
BetRivers1.19I 84.03%NM 79.45%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.55%EV -6.51%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%5.8%2026-05-26 00:10
Coolbet1.16I 86.21%NM 79.86%EV -7.58%E -6.53%K -47.35%G +0.000%4.60I 21.74%NM 20.14%EV -6.51%E -1.41%K -1.81%G +0.000%7.9%2026-05-26 00:09
NordicBet1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -7.52%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-26 00:01
Betsson1.19I 84.03%NM 79.27%EV -5.19%E -4.36%K -27.30%G +0.000%4.55I 21.98%NM 20.73%EV -7.52%E -1.65%K -2.12%G +0.000%6.0%2026-05-25 23:59
888sport1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.54%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-25 23:59
ReBet1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.54%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-25 23:59
Mr Green (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.54%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-25 23:59
888sport (SE)1.20I 83.33%NM 78.95%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.50I 22.22%NM 21.05%EV -8.54%E -1.90%K -2.44%G +0.000%5.6%2026-05-25 23:59
BetAnything1.22I 81.97%NM 78.29%EV -2.80%E -2.29%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.71%EV -10.57%E -2.40%K -3.11%G +0.000%4.7%2026-05-25 23:59
SportsBet1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.57%E -2.40%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-26 00:10
TAB1.20I 83.33%NM 78.57%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.40I 22.73%NM 21.43%EV -10.57%E -2.40%K -3.11%G +0.000%6.1%2026-05-26 00:01
BoyleSports1.20I 83.33%NM 78.30%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.33I 23.09%NM 21.70%EV -11.99%E -2.77%K -3.60%G +0.000%6.4%2026-05-26 00:00
FanDuel1.22I 81.97%NM 77.90%EV -2.80%E -2.29%K -12.71%G +0.000%4.30I 23.26%NM 22.10%EV -12.60%E -2.93%K -3.82%G +0.000%5.2%2026-05-26 00:10
PMU (FR)1.13I 88.50%NM 78.80%EV -9.97%E -8.82%K -76.67%G +0.000%4.20I 23.81%NM 21.20%EV -14.64%E -3.48%K -4.57%G +0.000%12.3%2026-05-26 00:10
Paddy Power1.20I 83.33%NM 76.92%EV -4.39%E -3.66%K -21.95%G +0.000%4.00I 25.00%NM 23.08%EV -18.70%E -4.68%K -6.23%G +0.000%8.3%2026-05-26 00:10
Margen = Margen del corredor · I = Probabilidad implícita · NM = Probabilidad sin margen · EV = Valor esperado · E = Ventaja · K = Criterio de Kelly · G = Crecimiento del capital de apuestas

Actualizado indica cuándo actualizó cada corredor sus momios por última vez. Una hora anterior significa que los momios no han cambiado, no necesariamente que estén desactualizados. Por lo general se descartan los corredores de los que no se han recibido datos durante unos 15 minutos; solo cuando toda la fuente de un mercado deja de informar se conservan los últimos momios registrados.

Bolsas de apuestas (7)

CorredorLocalVisitanteMargen ▲Actualizado
Polymarket1.27I 78.74%NM 78.18%4.55I 21.98%NM 21.82%0.7%2026-05-26 00:10
Kalshi1.30I 76.92%NM 74.76%3.85I 25.97%NM 25.24%2.9%2026-05-26 00:10
Novig1.30I 76.92%NM 74.51%3.80I 26.32%NM 25.49%3.2%2026-05-26 00:09
ProphetX1.30I 76.92%NM 74.00%3.70I 27.03%NM 26.00%4.0%2026-05-26 00:10
Betfair Exchange (EU)1.11I 90.09%NM 76.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%17.9%2026-05-26 00:10
Betfair Exchange (UK)1.11I 90.09%NM 76.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%17.9%2026-05-26 00:10
Betfair Exchange (AU)1.11I 90.09%NM 76.43%3.60I 27.78%NM 23.57%17.9%2026-05-26 00:10