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New York Liberty v Las Vegas Aces
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
New York Liberty (Local)
Prediction 81.93%1.22fair odd
EV -2.50%
Edge -2.10%
Kelly -13.15%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.19
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
79.51%81.88%81.97%83.45%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.121.161.171.1989.29%85.90%85.47%84.03%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Las Vegas Aces (Visit)
Prediction 18.07%5.54fair odd
EV +4.78%
Edge +0.824%
Kelly +0.995%
Growth +0.048%
assuming max odds 5.80
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
16.55%18.12%18.03%20.49%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
4.505.205.205.8022.22%19.24%19.23%17.24%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: New York Liberty (Local): 81.93%; Las Vegas Aces (Visit): 18.07%. For Las Vegas Aces (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 5.54. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 5.80, corresponding to a positive expected value of +4.78%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetUS🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 83.45%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.50%G +0.000% | 5.80I 17.24%NM 16.55%EV +4.78%E +0.824%K +0.995%G +0.048% | 4.2% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 83.21%EV -4.96%E -4.27%K -30.97%G +0.000% | 5.75I 17.39%NM 16.79%EV +3.87%E +0.674%K +0.816%G +0.032% | 3.6% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60%EV -3.32%E -2.81%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV +1.17%E +0.208%K +0.253%G +0.003% | 2.6% | 2026-08-09 16:28 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 82.60%EV -3.32%E -2.81%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 5.60I 17.86%NM 17.40%EV +1.17%E +0.208%K +0.253%G +0.003% | 2.6% | 2026-08-09 16:28 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.46%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.54%EV -0.641%E -0.117%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.641%E -0.117%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.71%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.50%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.29%EV -0.641%E -0.117%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:28 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.641%E -0.117%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 82.83%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.10%G +0.000% | 5.50I 18.18%NM 17.17%EV -0.641%E -0.117%K -0.143%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.27%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.43I 18.42%NM 17.73%EV -1.91%E -0.351%K -0.430%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.27%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.43I 18.42%NM 17.73%EV -1.91%E -0.351%K -0.430%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-09 16:29 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.25%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.42I 18.45%NM 17.75%EV -2.09%E -0.385%K -0.472%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-09 16:20 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 82.19%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.81%EV -2.45%E -0.453%K -0.556%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.44%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.50%G +0.000% | 5.40I 18.52%NM 17.56%EV -2.45%E -0.453%K -0.556%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.92%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 18.08%EV -4.25%E -0.803%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-09 16:07 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 82.04%EV -4.96%E -4.27%K -30.97%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.96%EV -4.25%E -0.803%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:29 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.17%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.50%G +0.000% | 5.30I 18.87%NM 17.83%EV -4.25%E -0.803%K -0.989%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.78%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.22%EV -5.16%E -0.982%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-09 16:09 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 81.90%EV -4.96%E -4.27%K -30.97%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 18.10%EV -5.16%E -0.982%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.50%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.16%E -0.982%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 16:29 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.50%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.16%E -0.982%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 16:29 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.15I 86.96%NM 82.03%EV -5.77%E -5.02%K -38.50%G +0.000% | 5.25I 19.05%NM 17.97%EV -5.16%E -0.982%K -1.21%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 81.53%EV -3.32%E -2.81%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 5.21I 19.19%NM 18.47%EV -5.88%E -1.13%K -1.40%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-09 16:14 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.06%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 16:09 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.63%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.20I 19.23%NM 18.37%EV -6.06%E -1.17%K -1.44%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:29 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.34%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.10I 19.61%NM 18.66%EV -7.87%E -1.54%K -1.92%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 80.91%EV -3.32%E -2.81%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 19.09%EV -9.67%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-09 14:25 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.67%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 15:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.67%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 16:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.67%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 15:05 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 81.04%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.96%EV -9.67%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-08-09 15:04 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.67%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-09 16:09 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.14I 87.72%NM 81.43%EV -6.59%E -5.78%K -47.10%G +0.000% | 5.00I 20.00%NM 18.57%EV -9.67%E -1.93%K -2.42%G +0.000% | 7.7% | 2026-08-09 16:14 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.17I 85.47%NM 80.88%EV -4.14%E -3.54%K -24.33%G +0.000% | 4.95I 20.20%NM 19.12%EV -10.58%E -2.14%K -2.68%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -2.50%E -2.10%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -13.29%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-09 14:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.19I 84.03%NM 80.13%EV -2.50%E -2.10%K -13.15%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 19.87%EV -13.29%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-09 14:25 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.12I 89.29%NM 81.08%EV -8.23%E -7.35%K -68.61%G +0.000% | 4.80I 20.83%NM 18.92%EV -13.29%E -2.77%K -3.50%G +0.000% | 10.1% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.18I 84.75%NM 79.58%EV -3.32%E -2.81%K -18.43%G +0.000% | 4.60I 21.74%NM 20.42%EV -16.90%E -3.67%K -4.69%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-09 16:10 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.16I 86.21%NM 79.51%EV -4.96%E -4.27%K -30.97%G +0.000% | 4.50I 22.22%NM 20.49%EV -18.71%E -4.16%K -5.34%G +0.000% | 8.4% | 2026-08-09 16:29 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Novig◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.53% | 6.45I 15.50%NM 15.47% | 0.2% | 2026-08-09 16:25 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 84.12% | 6.25I 16.00%NM 15.88% | 0.7% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.16I 86.21%NM 85.19% | 6.67I 14.99%NM 14.81% | 1.2% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.18I 84.75%NM 83.57% | 6.00I 16.67%NM 16.43% | 1.4% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88% | 1.6% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88% | 1.6% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 84.12% | 6.20I 16.13%NM 15.88% | 1.6% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.17I 85.47%NM 83.45% | 5.90I 16.95%NM 16.55% | 2.4% | 2026-08-09 16:30 |