The School of Odds
Default modelInterquartile mean (Vetted List)
+ New modelAll models

Los Angeles Sparks v Phoenix Mercury

Kickoff: 2026-07-22 19:05 UTC

Final: Los Angeles Sparks 82–86 Phoenix Mercury

Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →

Head to Head

48 sportsbooks (16 in analysis )

Estimated chance of each outcome, according to the model: Interquartile mean (Vetted List)

Los Angeles Sparks (Local)

Prediction 51.40%1.95fair odd
EV +0.737%
Edge +0.376%
Kelly +0.768%
Growth +0.006%

assuming max odds 1.96

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
49.09%51.60%51.06%53.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.761.851.851.9656.82%54.06%54.05%51.02%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

Phoenix Mercury (Visit)

Prediction 48.60%2.06fair odd
EV -0.363%
Edge -0.177%
Kelly -0.346%
Growth +0.000%

assuming max odds 2.05

Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
46.75%48.40%48.94%50.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.851.951.952.0554.05%51.16%51.28%48.78%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.

At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Los Angeles Sparks (Local): 51.40%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 48.60%. For Los Angeles Sparks (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.95. 1 bookmaker offered closing odds above that level; the best were 1.96, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.737%.

Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)

We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.

BookmakerLocal ▼VisitMarginUpdated
1xBet🎯1.96I 51.02%NM 49.09%EV +0.737%E +0.376%K +0.768%G +0.006%1.89I 52.91%NM 50.91%EV -8.14%E -4.31%K -9.15%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-22 18:34
Pinnacle🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.39%EV -1.83%E -0.960%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.61%EV -5.71%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%3.9%2026-07-22 18:24
Bovada🎯1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -1.83%E -0.960%K -2.01%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 50.00%EV -7.17%E -3.75%K -7.88%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-22 18:15
Unibet (UK)🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.91%EV -3.37%E -1.79%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 49.09%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.5%2026-07-22 18:24
SportsBet🎯1.88I 53.19%NM 50.79%EV -3.37%E -1.79%K -3.83%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.21%EV -5.71%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%4.7%2026-07-22 18:59
Fanatics🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:40
Hard Rock Bet🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:24
Caesars🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:14
GTbets🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:24
BetOnline.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:19
LowVig.ag🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:15
BetMGM🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:39
BetUS🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:14
BetAnything🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 51.05%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.95%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:14
Neds🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.71%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 18:39
Ladbrokes (AU)🎯1.87I 53.48%NM 50.92%EV -3.89%E -2.08%K -4.47%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 49.08%EV -5.71%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 18:39
Betr (AU)🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.18%EV -4.40%E -2.37%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.82%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.0%2026-07-22 18:49
ReBet🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.40%E -2.37%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.71%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 18:24
Bet Right🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.40%E -2.37%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.71%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 18:49
MyBookie.ag🎯1.86I 53.76%NM 51.05%EV -4.40%E -2.37%K -5.12%G +0.000%1.94I 51.55%NM 48.95%EV -5.71%E -2.94%K -6.07%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 18:28
Bet Victor🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -0.363%E -0.177%K -0.346%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-22 18:49
betano_uk🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 52.56%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 47.44%EV -0.363%E -0.177%K -0.346%G +0.000%2.8%2026-07-22 18:47
Unibet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.25%E -2.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:34
LeoVegas (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.25%E -2.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:34
Unibet (NL)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.25%E -2.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:35
Unibet (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.25%E -2.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:34
Bally Bet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.25%E -2.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:34
betPARX🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.25%E -2.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:34
ATG (SE)🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.25%E -2.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:34
Svenska Spel🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.57%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.97I 50.76%NM 48.43%EV -4.25%E -2.16%K -4.38%G +0.000%4.8%2026-07-22 18:34
TAB🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.32%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.95I 51.28%NM 48.68%EV -5.22%E -2.68%K -5.50%G +0.000%5.3%2026-07-22 18:05
Coolbet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 51.06%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.93I 51.81%NM 48.94%EV -6.20%E -3.21%K -6.66%G +0.000%5.9%2026-07-22 18:33
Betsson🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -6.68%E -3.48%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-22 18:24
NordicBet🎯1.85I 54.05%NM 50.93%EV -4.92%E -2.66%K -5.78%G +0.000%1.92I 52.08%NM 49.07%EV -6.68%E -3.48%K -7.26%G +0.000%6.1%2026-07-22 18:24
DraftKings🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 52.22%EV -5.94%E -3.25%K -7.16%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.78%EV -2.79%E -1.40%K -2.79%G +0.000%4.6%2026-07-22 17:09
FanDuel🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.97%EV -5.94%E -3.25%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.98I 50.51%NM 48.03%EV -3.77%E -1.90%K -3.84%G +0.000%5.1%2026-07-22 18:59
TABtouch🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.94%E -3.25%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -4.74%E -2.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-22 18:34
BetRivers🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.72%EV -5.94%E -3.25%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.96I 51.02%NM 48.28%EV -4.74%E -2.42%K -4.93%G +0.000%5.7%2026-07-22 18:35
Fliff🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.94%E -3.25%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.17%E -3.75%K -7.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 18:59
BoyleSports🎯1.83I 54.64%NM 51.07%EV -5.94%E -3.25%K -7.16%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.93%EV -7.17%E -3.75%K -7.88%G +0.000%7.0%2026-07-22 18:24
theScore Bet🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 53.25%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.05I 48.78%NM 46.75%EV -0.363%E -0.177%K -0.346%G +0.000%4.3%2026-07-22 17:59
888sport🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.79%E -1.40%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 15:19
888sport (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.79%E -1.40%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 15:19
Mr Green (SE)🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.79%E -1.40%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 15:19
Betway🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 52.63%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%2.00I 50.00%NM 47.37%EV -2.79%E -1.40%K -2.79%G +0.000%5.6%2026-07-22 19:00
Paddy Power🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 51.48%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%1.91I 52.36%NM 48.52%EV -7.17%E -3.75%K -7.88%G +0.000%7.9%2026-07-22 18:59
LeoVegas🎯1.80I 55.56%NM 50.68%EV -7.49%E -4.16%K -9.36%G +0.000%1.85I 54.05%NM 49.32%EV -10.08%E -5.45%K -11.86%G +0.000%9.6%2026-07-22 18:39
PMU (FR)🎯1.76I 56.82%NM 51.65%EV -9.54%E -5.42%K -12.56%G +0.000%1.88I 53.19%NM 48.35%EV -8.63%E -4.59%K -9.80%G +0.000%10.0%2026-07-22 18:34
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth

Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.

Exchanges (8)

BookmakerLocalVisitMargin ▲Updated
Betfair Exchange (EU)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-07-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (UK)◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-07-22 18:59
Matchbook◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.63%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.37%0.4%2026-07-22 19:00
ProphetX◎1.93I 51.81%NM 51.51%2.05I 48.78%NM 48.49%0.6%2026-07-22 19:00
Betfair Exchange (AU)◎1.91I 52.36%NM 51.89%2.06I 48.54%NM 48.11%0.9%2026-07-22 19:00
Kalshi◎1.89I 52.91%NM 52.39%2.08I 48.08%NM 47.61%1.0%2026-07-22 19:00
Novig◎1.92I 52.08%NM 51.52%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.48%1.1%2026-07-22 18:59
Polymarket◎1.89I 52.91%NM 51.91%2.04I 49.02%NM 48.09%1.9%2026-07-22 18:59