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Las Vegas Aces v Connecticut Sun
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Las Vegas Aces (Local)
Prediction 88.78%1.13fair odd
EV -2.34%
Edge -2.13%
Kelly -23.40%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.75%88.65%88.82%90.01%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.051.081.081.1095.24%92.83%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Connecticut Sun (Visit)
Prediction 11.22%8.91fair odd
EV +7.14%
Edge +0.747%
Kelly +0.835%
Growth +0.060%
assuming max odds 9.55
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
9.99%11.35%11.18%14.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.508.178.009.5515.38%12.25%12.50%10.47%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Las Vegas Aces (Local): 88.78%; Connecticut Sun (Visit): 11.22%. For Connecticut Sun (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.91. 13 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.55, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.14%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 90.01%EV -5.89%E -5.56%K -98.20%G +0.000% | 9.55I 10.47%NM 9.99%EV +7.14%E +0.747%K +0.835%G +0.060% | 4.8% | 2026-08-21 01:59 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.55%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.45%EV +3.77%E +0.408%K +0.457%G +0.017% | 3.4% | 2026-08-21 01:48 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.55%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.45%EV +3.77%E +0.408%K +0.457%G +0.017% | 3.4% | 2026-08-21 01:49 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.63%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 9.25I 10.81%NM 10.37%EV +3.77%E +0.408%K +0.457%G +0.017% | 4.3% | 2026-08-21 01:55 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.34%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 9.05I 11.05%NM 10.66%EV +1.53%E +0.169%K +0.190%G +0.003% | 3.6% | 2026-08-20 21:40 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV +0.967%E +0.107%K +0.121%G +0.001% | 3.7% | 2026-08-20 19:54 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +0.967%E +0.107%K +0.121%G +0.001% | 4.6% | 2026-08-20 21:40 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +0.967%E +0.107%K +0.121%G +0.001% | 4.6% | 2026-08-20 17:14 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.37%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.63%EV +0.967%E +0.107%K +0.121%G +0.001% | 4.6% | 2026-08-20 19:48 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -5.89%E -5.56%K -98.20%G +0.000% | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +0.967%E +0.107%K +0.121%G +0.001% | 5.5% | 2026-08-20 20:04 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.18%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 8.98I 11.14%NM 10.82%EV +0.743%E +0.083%K +0.093%G +0.001% | 2.9% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.23%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.95I 11.17%NM 10.77%EV +0.407%E +0.045%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-21 01:54 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.23%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.95I 11.17%NM 10.77%EV +0.407%E +0.045%K +0.051%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-21 01:54 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -1.84%E -0.210%K -0.237%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-20 19:49 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 89.10%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 8.75I 11.43%NM 10.90%EV -1.84%E -0.210%K -0.237%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-20 19:49 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-21 01:29 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.89%E -5.56%K -98.20%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-21 01:29 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.89%E -5.56%K -98.20%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-21 01:30 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.91%EV -5.89%E -5.56%K -98.20%G +0.000% | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.09%EV -4.64%E -0.546%K -0.619%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-21 01:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.39%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.61%EV -6.89%E -0.830%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-08-20 12:34 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.49%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.51%EV -6.89%E -0.830%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-21 01:33 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.49%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.30I 12.05%NM 11.51%EV -6.89%E -0.830%K -0.943%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-08-21 01:29 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV -9.13%E -1.13%K -1.29%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-08-20 21:35 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -10.25%E -1.28%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 21:25 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -10.25%E -1.28%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 01:40 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -10.25%E -1.28%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-20 21:25 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -10.25%E -1.28%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-21 01:28 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -10.25%E -1.28%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-21 01:30 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -10.25%E -1.28%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -10.25%E -1.28%K -1.46%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-21 01:59 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.10I 90.91%NM 87.50%EV -2.34%E -2.13%K -23.40%G +0.000% | 7.70I 12.99%NM 12.50%EV -13.62%E -1.77%K -2.03%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-20 22:14 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 00:35 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 01:59 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 00:35 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 00:34 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 00:35 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 01:59 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 00:35 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -3.23%E -2.96%K -35.87%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-21 00:35 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 23:59 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 19:49 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-20 19:59 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.00%E -4.68%K -71.48%G +0.000% | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -15.86%E -2.11%K -2.44%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-08-21 01:29 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.96%EV -6.78%E -6.46%K -135.59%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -21.47%E -3.07%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.05I 95.24%NM 86.96%EV -6.78%E -6.46%K -135.59%G +0.000% | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.04%EV -21.47%E -3.07%K -3.58%G +0.000% | 9.5% | 2026-08-21 00:35 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -4.12%E -3.81%K -51.45%G +0.000% | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -27.08%E -4.17%K -4.92%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-08-21 01:59 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 91.07% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.93% | 0.7% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02% | 0.8% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.98% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 9.02% | 0.8% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| Matchbook◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.74% | 12.00I 8.33%NM 8.26% | 0.9% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.41% | 11.50I 8.70%NM 8.59% | 1.3% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| Kalshi◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.14% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.86% | 1.6% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| Novig◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.14% | 11.11I 9.00%NM 8.86% | 1.6% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.08I 92.59%NM 91.06% | 11.00I 9.09%NM 8.94% | 1.7% | 2026-08-21 02:00 |