Language:English
Golden State Valkyries v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Golden State Valkyries (Local)
Prediction 55.40%1.81fair odd
EV -3.06%
Edge -1.75%
Kelly -4.08%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.75
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
54.20%55.59%55.28%57.54%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.551.701.701.7564.52%58.89%58.82%57.14%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 44.60%2.24fair odd
EV +0.361%
Edge +0.160%
Kelly +0.289%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.25
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.46%44.41%44.72%45.80%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.162.152.2550.00%46.20%46.51%44.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Golden State Valkyries (Local): 55.40%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 44.60%. For Phoenix Mercury (Visit), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.24. 10 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.25, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.361%.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit ▼ | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| Unibet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| betPARX🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.54%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.46%EV +0.361%E +0.160%K +0.289%G +0.001% | 4.7% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 57.03%EV -6.94%E -4.13%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.97%EV -0.531%E -0.238%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-11 00:10 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.531%E -0.238%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 1.66I 60.24%NM 57.33%EV -8.04%E -4.85%K -12.19%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 42.67%EV -0.531%E -0.238%K -0.432%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -6.38%E -3.78%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -1.87%E -0.850%K -1.56%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.33%EV -6.38%E -3.78%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.18I 45.87%NM 43.67%EV -2.76%E -1.27%K -2.34%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.13%EV -3.06%E -1.75%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.87%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-11 00:22 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 23:59 |
| Caesars🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 23:02 |
| GTbets🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 23:54 |
| Bovada🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 23:48 |
| Betway🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 23:59 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| BetUS🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -5.27%E -3.08%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-05-10 21:49 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-11 00:00 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-10 23:54 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.94%E -4.13%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -6.94%E -4.13%K -10.20%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -4.10%E -1.91%K -3.56%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-10 22:34 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 55.01%EV -3.06%E -1.75%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.99%EV -4.55%E -2.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.15%EV -3.61%E -2.08%K -4.88%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.85%EV -4.55%E -2.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-10 21:44 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 55.30%EV -4.17%E -2.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.70%EV -4.55%E -2.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-05-10 23:59 |
| ReBet🎯 | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.58%EV -5.27%E -3.08%K -7.43%G +0.000% | 2.14I 46.73%NM 44.42%EV -4.55%E -2.12%K -3.99%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.06%E -1.75%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.99%E -2.34%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-11 00:23 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 1.75I 57.14%NM 54.90%EV -3.06%E -1.75%K -4.08%G +0.000% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.10%EV -4.99%E -2.34%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Betsson🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.44%E -2.56%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.50%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 44.50%EV -5.44%E -2.56%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| Neds🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.17%E -2.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 22:25 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.17%E -2.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-10 22:24 |
| 888sport🎯 | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.83%EV -4.17%E -2.41%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.17%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 5.4% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| TAB🎯 | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -5.83%E -3.43%K -8.33%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 00:19 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -7.49%E -4.49%K -11.18%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -6.33%E -3.01%K -5.75%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-05-11 00:04 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 1.55I 64.52%NM 57.30%EV -14.14%E -9.12%K -25.70%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 42.70%EV -7.22%E -3.47%K -6.69%G +0.000% | 12.6% | 2026-05-10 23:49 |
| Fliff🎯 | 1.69I 59.17%NM 54.20%EV -6.38%E -3.78%K -9.25%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.80%EV -10.79%E -5.40%K -10.79%G +0.000% | 9.2% | 2026-05-11 00:09 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi◎ | 1.79I 55.87%NM 54.80% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 45.20% | 1.9% | 2026-05-11 00:19 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19% | 2.1% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.81% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 46.19% | 2.1% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| ProphetX◎ | 1.81I 55.25%NM 54.06% | 2.13I 46.95%NM 45.94% | 2.2% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 1.80I 55.56%NM 54.08% | 2.12I 47.17%NM 45.92% | 2.7% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Novig◎ | 1.77I 56.50%NM 54.96% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 45.04% | 2.8% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |
| Polymarket◎ | 1.82I 54.95%NM 53.33% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 46.67% | 3.0% | 2026-05-11 00:24 |