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Connecticut Sun v Portland Fire
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Connecticut Sun (Local)
Prediction 56.11%1.78fair odd
EV -0.691%
Edge -0.390%
Kelly -0.897%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.77
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
53.05%56.05%55.99%57.51%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.621.701.701.7761.73%58.80%58.82%56.50%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Portland Fire (Visit)
Prediction 43.89%2.28fair odd
EV -0.802%
Edge -0.355%
Kelly -0.636%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 2.26
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
42.49%43.95%44.01%46.95%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.002.152.162.2650.00%46.42%46.30%44.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Connecticut Sun (Local): 56.11%; Portland Fire (Visit): 43.89%. For Connecticut Sun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 1.78. No eligible bookmaker offered closing odds above that level: the best were 1.77, with an expected value of -0.691%; they did not produce positive expected value.
Sportsbook Odds (45 sportsbooks)
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| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fliff | 1.77I 56.50%NM 53.05%EV -0.691%E -0.390%K -0.897%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 46.95%EV -12.21%E -6.11%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Hard Rock Bet | 1.74I 57.47%NM 55.27%EV -2.37%E -1.36%K -3.21%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.73%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-14 14:50 |
| BoyleSports | 1.73I 57.80%NM 54.23%EV -2.94%E -1.70%K -4.02%G +0.000% | 2.05I 48.78%NM 45.77%EV -10.02%E -4.89%K -9.54%G +0.000% | 6.6% | 2026-07-14 14:09 |
| Neds | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.50%E -2.03%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Ladbrokes (AU) | 1.72I 58.14%NM 55.56%EV -3.50%E -2.03%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.44%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| SportsBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.97%EV -3.50%E -2.03%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 45.03%EV -7.82%E -3.73%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-07-14 14:49 |
| NordicBet | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -3.50%E -2.03%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -8.70%E -4.18%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-14 14:09 |
| Betsson | 1.72I 58.14%NM 54.74%EV -3.50%E -2.03%K -4.86%G +0.000% | 2.08I 48.08%NM 45.26%EV -8.70%E -4.18%K -8.06%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-07-14 14:09 |
| theScore Bet | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.06%E -2.37%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.44%E -1.56%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| GTbets | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.06%E -2.37%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.44%E -1.56%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| LowVig.ag | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.06%E -2.37%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.44%E -1.56%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Bovada | 1.71I 58.48%NM 56.27%EV -4.06%E -2.37%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.73%EV -3.44%E -1.56%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-07-14 14:28 |
| MyBookie.ag | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.81%EV -4.06%E -2.37%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.19%EV -5.19%E -2.40%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-07-14 14:55 |
| BetMGM | 1.71I 58.48%NM 55.70%EV -4.06%E -2.37%K -5.71%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.30%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.0% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| BetOnline.ag | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.74%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.26%EV -2.12%E -0.950%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| DraftKings | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.41%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.59%EV -3.44%E -1.56%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-07-14 14:09 |
| LeoVegas (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.75%E -2.19%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| Unibet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.75%E -2.19%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| Unibet (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.75%E -2.19%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| Unibet (NL) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.75%E -2.19%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| betPARX | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.75%E -2.19%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-14 14:30 |
| Bally Bet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.75%E -2.19%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| ATG (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.75%E -2.19%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| Svenska Spel | 1.70I 58.82%NM 56.07%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.17I 46.08%NM 43.93%EV -4.75%E -2.19%K -4.06%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| FanDuel | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.19%E -2.40%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| BetRivers | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.19%E -2.40%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| TABtouch | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.96%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.16I 46.30%NM 44.04%EV -5.19%E -2.40%K -4.47%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| 888sport | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| ReBet | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-14 15:00 |
| Mr Green (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Unibet (UK) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Betr (AU) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| 888sport (SE) | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.84%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.16%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| TAB | 1.70I 58.82%NM 55.26%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.74%EV -7.82%E -3.73%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 6.4% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| LeoVegas | 1.70I 58.82%NM 54.05%EV -4.62%E -2.72%K -6.60%G +0.000% | 2.00I 50.00%NM 45.95%EV -12.21%E -6.11%K -12.21%G +0.000% | 8.8% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| BetUS | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.18%E -3.06%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.24%E -0.551%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-14 14:49 |
| BetAnything | 1.69I 59.17%NM 57.11%EV -5.18%E -3.06%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 42.89%EV -1.24%E -0.551%K -0.992%G +0.000% | 3.6% | 2026-07-14 14:49 |
| Pinnacle | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.89%EV -5.18%E -3.06%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.23I 44.84%NM 43.11%EV -2.12%E -0.950%K -1.72%G +0.000% | 4.0% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Fanatics | 1.69I 59.17%NM 56.56%EV -5.18%E -3.06%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 43.44%EV -3.44%E -1.56%K -2.86%G +0.000% | 4.6% | 2026-07-14 14:19 |
| Betway | 1.69I 59.17%NM 55.99%EV -5.18%E -3.06%K -7.51%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 44.01%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 5.7% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Coolbet | 1.68I 59.52%NM 56.14%EV -5.74%E -3.42%K -8.44%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.86%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-07-14 14:29 |
| Caesars | 1.67I 59.88%NM 57.51%EV -6.30%E -3.77%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 42.49%EV -0.802%E -0.355%K -0.636%G +0.000% | 4.1% | 2026-07-14 14:56 |
| Paddy Power | 1.67I 59.88%NM 55.70%EV -6.30%E -3.77%K -9.41%G +0.000% | 2.10I 47.62%NM 44.30%EV -7.82%E -3.73%K -7.11%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-14 14:40 |
| Bet Right | 1.64I 60.98%NM 56.73%EV -7.98%E -4.87%K -12.48%G +0.000% | 2.15I 46.51%NM 43.27%EV -5.63%E -2.62%K -4.90%G +0.000% | 7.5% | 2026-07-14 15:00 |
| PMU (FR) | 1.62I 61.73%NM 56.10%EV -9.11%E -5.62%K -14.69%G +0.000% | 2.07I 48.31%NM 43.90%EV -9.14%E -4.42%K -8.54%G +0.000% | 10.0% | 2026-07-14 14:30 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42% | 1.0% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Matchbook | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.58% | 2.28I 43.86%NM 43.42% | 1.0% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Polymarket | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.47% | 2.27I 44.05%NM 43.53% | 1.2% | 2026-07-14 15:00 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 1.4% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU) | 1.75I 57.14%NM 56.36% | 2.26I 44.25%NM 43.64% | 1.4% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |
| Novig | 1.77I 56.50%NM 55.42% | 2.20I 45.45%NM 44.58% | 2.0% | 2026-07-14 15:00 |
| ProphetX | 1.72I 58.14%NM 56.68% | 2.25I 44.44%NM 43.32% | 2.6% | 2026-07-14 14:59 |