Language:English
Connecticut Sun v Phoenix Mercury
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Connecticut Sun (Local)
Prediction 34.40%2.91fair odd
EV +0.437%
Edge +0.150%
Kelly +0.228%
Growth +0.001%
assuming max odds 2.92
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
32.56%34.49%34.40%36.59%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
2.482.732.752.9240.32%36.62%36.36%34.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Phoenix Mercury (Visit)
Prediction 65.60%1.52fair odd
EV -1.59%
Edge -1.06%
Kelly -3.19%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.50
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
63.41%65.51%65.60%67.44%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.401.461.451.5071.43%68.53%68.97%66.67%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Connecticut Sun (Local): 34.40%; Phoenix Mercury (Visit): 65.60%. For Connecticut Sun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 2.91. 3 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 2.92, corresponding to a positive expected value of +0.437%.
Sportsbook Odds (48 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV +0.437%E +0.150%K +0.228%G +0.001% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -6.19%E -4.33%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 2.92I 34.25%NM 32.87%EV +0.437%E +0.150%K +0.228%G +0.001% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 67.13%EV -6.19%E -4.33%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| ReBet🎯 | 2.91I 34.36%NM 32.79%EV +0.093%E +0.032%K +0.049%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 67.21%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 21:45 |
| 888sport (SE)🎯 | 2.90I 34.48%NM 32.56%EV -0.251%E -0.086%K -0.132%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.44%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-08-07 22:05 |
| BoyleSports🎯 | 2.88I 34.72%NM 32.71%EV -0.939%E -0.326%K -0.499%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 67.29%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 6.2% | 2026-08-07 21:44 |
| betano_uk🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.97%E -0.691%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.56%E -2.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-07 23:15 |
| Bet Victor🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 34.03%EV -1.97%E -0.691%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.97%EV -3.56%E -2.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-08-07 23:15 |
| Bovada🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.97%E -0.691%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 2.85I 35.09%NM 33.57%EV -1.97%E -0.691%K -1.07%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 66.43%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 4.5% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.58%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 65.42%EV -2.91%E -1.96%K -6.06%G +0.000% | 3.3% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.43%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.57%EV -3.56%E -2.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-08-07 22:35 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.27%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.46I 68.49%NM 65.73%EV -4.22%E -2.89%K -9.17%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 22:55 |
| Caesars🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 23:12 |
| GTbets🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 23:00 |
| BetUS🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 34.12%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.88%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 4.7% | 2026-08-07 20:24 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 18:44 |
| Betsson🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 18:45 |
| Fliff🎯 | 2.80I 35.71%NM 33.65%EV -3.69%E -1.32%K -2.05%G +0.000% | 1.42I 70.42%NM 66.35%EV -6.84%E -4.82%K -16.29%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 23:25 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 2.79I 35.84%NM 34.51%EV -4.03%E -1.45%K -2.25%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.49%EV -3.56%E -2.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 3.9% | 2026-08-07 23:20 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 2.77I 36.10%NM 34.36%EV -4.72%E -1.70%K -2.67%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.64%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 18:34 |
| 1xBet🎯 | 2.76I 36.23%NM 34.75%EV -5.07%E -1.84%K -2.88%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 65.25%EV -3.56%E -2.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.3% | 2026-08-07 23:08 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.52%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.48%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-08-07 23:10 |
| 888sport🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 23:29 |
| Mr Green (SE)🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 23:29 |
| Betway🎯 | 2.75I 36.36%NM 34.37%EV -5.41%E -1.97%K -3.09%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.63%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 5.8% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 2.73I 36.63%NM 34.53%EV -6.10%E -2.23%K -3.52%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.47%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 22:59 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 2.72I 36.76%NM 35.08%EV -6.44%E -2.37%K -3.75%G +0.000% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 64.92%EV -3.56%E -2.42%K -7.58%G +0.000% | 4.8% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 35.56%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 64.44%EV -2.25%E -1.51%K -4.59%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| TAB🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.94%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 65.06%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-08-07 23:00 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.78%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 65.22%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 6.5% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 2.70I 37.04%NM 34.15%EV -7.13%E -2.64%K -4.19%G +0.000% | 1.40I 71.43%NM 65.85%EV -8.15%E -5.82%K -20.39%G +0.000% | 8.5% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 2.69I 37.17%NM 35.02%EV -7.47%E -2.78%K -4.42%G +0.000% | 1.45I 68.97%NM 64.98%EV -4.87%E -3.36%K -10.83%G +0.000% | 6.1% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 2.65I 37.74%NM 36.14%EV -8.85%E -3.34%K -5.36%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.86%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-08-07 22:59 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 2.62I 38.17%NM 35.47%EV -9.88%E -3.77%K -6.10%G +0.000% | 1.44I 69.44%NM 64.53%EV -5.53%E -3.84%K -12.57%G +0.000% | 7.6% | 2026-08-07 22:00 |
| Unibet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:00 |
| Neds🎯 | 2.60I 38.46%NM 36.59%EV -10.57%E -4.07%K -6.61%G +0.000% | 1.50I 66.67%NM 63.41%EV -1.59%E -1.06%K -3.19%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-08-07 23:00 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 2.48I 40.32%NM 36.57%EV -14.70%E -5.93%K -9.93%G +0.000% | 1.43I 69.93%NM 63.43%EV -6.19%E -4.33%K -14.39%G +0.000% | 10.3% | 2026-08-07 23:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (8)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67% | 0.7% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67% | 0.7% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 2.98I 33.56%NM 33.33% | 1.49I 67.11%NM 66.67% | 0.7% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| Matchbook◎ | 3.00I 33.33%NM 33.04% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.96% | 0.9% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| Polymarket◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| Kalshi◎ | 3.03I 33.00%NM 32.67% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.33% | 1.0% | 2026-08-07 23:00 |
| Novig◎ | 2.99I 33.44%NM 32.96% | 1.47I 68.03%NM 67.04% | 1.5% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |
| ProphetX◎ | 2.92I 34.25%NM 33.64% | 1.48I 67.57%NM 66.36% | 1.8% | 2026-08-07 23:30 |