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Connecticut Sun v Las Vegas Aces
Closing line — the calculated probabilities and expected value from the last prices recorded before kickoff, under your selected model. The game has started, so these are not live figures. Assess the reliability of each model's probability predictions against all settled-game outcomes →
Head to Head
Connecticut Sun (Local)
Prediction 11.97%8.35fair odd
EV +7.73%
Edge +0.859%
Kelly +0.967%
Growth +0.075%
assuming max odds 9.00
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
10.54%11.89%11.99%14.25%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
6.507.898.009.0015.38%12.68%12.50%11.11%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Las Vegas Aces (Visit)
Prediction 88.03%1.14fair odd
EV -3.17%
Edge -2.88%
Kelly -31.68%
Growth +0.000%
assuming max odds 1.10
Bookmakers’ predictions’ distribution
85.75%88.11%88.01%89.46%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
Odds’ distribution
1.031.081.081.1097.09%92.59%92.59%90.91%MIN.MEANMEDIANMAX.
At the last prices before kickoff, Interquartile mean (Vetted List) estimated these probabilities for Head to Head: Connecticut Sun (Local): 11.97%; Las Vegas Aces (Visit): 88.03%. For Connecticut Sun (Local), that estimate was equivalent to fair decimal odds of 8.35. 4 bookmakers offered closing odds above that level; the best were 9.00, corresponding to a positive expected value of +7.73%.
Sportsbook Odds (41 sportsbooks)
We're not affiliated with any bookmaker, we earn nothing from any action done with them.
| Bookmaker | Local ▼ | Visit | Margin | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bet Victor🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.71%EV +7.73%E +0.859%K +0.967%G +0.075% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 89.29%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 3.7% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| theScore Bet🎯 | 9.00I 11.11%NM 10.54%EV +7.73%E +0.859%K +0.967%G +0.075% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 89.46%EV -6.69%E -6.31%K -111.48%G +0.000% | 5.5% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| BetAnything🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +1.75%E +0.206%K +0.233%G +0.004% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-14 00:04 |
| BetUS🎯 | 8.50I 11.76%NM 11.27%EV +1.75%E +0.206%K +0.233%G +0.004% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.73%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 4.4% | 2026-05-13 23:59 |
| LowVig.ag🎯 | 8.32I 12.02%NM 11.58%EV -0.406%E -0.049%K -0.055%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.42%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| BetOnline.ag🎯 | 8.32I 12.02%NM 11.58%EV -0.406%E -0.049%K -0.055%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.42%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 3.8% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Pinnacle🎯 | 8.20I 12.20%NM 11.83%EV -1.84%E -0.225%K -0.256%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 88.17%EV -3.17%E -2.88%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 3.1% | 2026-05-14 00:01 |
| FanDuel🎯 | 8.10I 12.35%NM 11.76%EV -3.04%E -0.375%K -0.428%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.24%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 4.9% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| DraftKings🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Fanatics🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Caesars🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-14 00:04 |
| BetMGM🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.99%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 88.01%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 4.2% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Unibet (UK)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Bet Right🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| LeoVegas (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| TABtouch🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| LeoVegas🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Unibet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Unibet (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Unibet (NL)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| betPARX🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| ATG (SE)🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Bally Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Svenska Spel🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.89%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 88.11%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Betway🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.81%E -5.43%K -82.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Hard Rock Bet🎯 | 8.00I 12.50%NM 11.80%EV -4.24%E -0.530%K -0.605%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 88.20%EV -5.81%E -5.43%K -82.98%G +0.000% | 6.0% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| MyBookie.ag🎯 | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV -5.43%E -0.688%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.97%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-14 00:03 |
| ReBet🎯 | 7.90I 12.66%NM 12.03%EV -5.43%E -0.688%K -0.787%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.97%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.3% | 2026-05-13 23:59 |
| Fliff🎯 | 7.80I 12.82%NM 11.96%EV -6.63%E -0.850%K -0.975%G +0.000% | 1.06I 94.34%NM 88.04%EV -6.69%E -6.31%K -111.48%G +0.000% | 7.2% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Neds🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Ladbrokes (AU)🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Bovada🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.69%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 87.31%EV -4.05%E -3.71%K -44.98%G +0.000% | 5.1% | 2026-05-14 00:02 |
| SportsBet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Coolbet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-13 23:59 |
| 888sport🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-13 23:59 |
| BetRivers🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.59%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 87.41%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 5.9% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| NordicBet🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.81%E -5.43%K -82.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-13 23:59 |
| Betsson🎯 | 7.50I 13.33%NM 12.49%EV -10.22%E -1.36%K -1.57%G +0.000% | 1.07I 93.46%NM 87.51%EV -5.81%E -5.43%K -82.98%G +0.000% | 6.8% | 2026-05-13 23:59 |
| Betr (AU)🎯 | 7.00I 14.29%NM 13.58%EV -16.21%E -2.32%K -2.70%G +0.000% | 1.10I 90.91%NM 86.42%EV -3.17%E -2.88%K -31.68%G +0.000% | 5.2% | 2026-05-13 23:59 |
| PMU (FR)🎯 | 6.75I 14.81%NM 13.24%EV -19.20%E -2.84%K -3.34%G +0.000% | 1.03I 97.09%NM 86.76%EV -9.33%E -9.06%K -310.99%G +0.000% | 11.9% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Paddy Power🎯 | 6.50I 15.38%NM 14.25%EV -22.19%E -3.41%K -4.03%G +0.000% | 1.08I 92.59%NM 85.75%EV -4.93%E -4.56%K -61.60%G +0.000% | 8.0% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
Margin = Margin (Overround) · I = Implied Probability · NM = No-Margin Probability · EV = Expected Value · E = Edge · K = Kelly Criterion · G = Bankroll Growth
Updated is when each book last changed its price, so an older time means the odds simply haven't moved, not that the price is stale. Books not seen in the last ~15 minutes are normally dropped; only if a whole market's feed goes quiet are the latest recorded prices shown instead.
Exchanges (7)
| Bookmaker | Local | Visit | Margin ▲ | Updated |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Betfair Exchange (UK)◎ | 7.60I 13.16%NM 12.94% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 87.06% | 1.7% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Kalshi◎ | 10.00I 10.00%NM 9.83% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 90.17% | 1.7% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (EU)◎ | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.25% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.75% | 2.0% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Betfair Exchange (AU)◎ | 7.40I 13.51%NM 13.25% | 1.13I 88.50%NM 86.75% | 2.0% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Polymarket◎ | 9.09I 11.00%NM 10.71% | 1.09I 91.74%NM 89.29% | 2.7% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| Novig◎ | 7.35I 13.61%NM 13.22% | 1.12I 89.29%NM 86.78% | 2.9% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |
| ProphetX◎ | 7.30I 13.70%NM 13.20% | 1.11I 90.09%NM 86.80% | 3.8% | 2026-05-14 00:05 |